I thought I'd revisit the basketball roster now that it seems set. We covered similar ground in the Always Next Year post on the team, but now that the Minutes Crunch™ is official, let's look at how things might shake out.
Point Guard
[Bryan Fuller]
Starter: Derrick Walton (Jr.)
Backups: Spike Albrecht (Sr.), Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman (So.)
Albrecht's hips and Walton's foot are lingering issues hovering over this spot. Derrick Walton was shut down in January and should be back from just about anything by November. His issues massively blunted his effectiveness. Walton went from a 45/41 percent shooter to 32/34. It's never good when a shooting line forces me to remind readers that the first one is twos and the second is threes.
Just about every part of Walton's statistical profile was static or regressed save his reliably mansome defensive rebounding; how much of that was the injury? How much was disorientation in an environment far more focused on his output? How much was just flat-out poor play?
We're hoping the answers to those questions are "lots," "some," and "not too much considering." Michigan and LaVall Jordan's point guard track record should mean that is close to the truth.
Still, the version of Derrick Walton Michigan gets is a major question mark for the season. Point guards have universally played above expectations since Darius Morris's freshman year. I just don't know what expectations are for Walton anymore.
Meanwhile, Spike Albrecht's presence would have certainly mitigated any downside here if he wasn't in the midst of dual hip surgeries. Instead he just probably mitigates any downside. The media has been told that he should be back in five or six months, no problem, but there are whispers he might be forced to redshirt. Albrecht was low usage and could not sustain his ludicrously low TO rates when forced into extensive action; he also led the post-LeVert team in assist rate by a huge margin and maintained shooting efficiency in a more difficult environment.
Spike was a major reason Michigan managed to remain competitive without Walton and Irvin. In the twelve games Michigan played without those two stars, Spike scored in double digits nine times, shot 45/43%, and had a stellar 60:19 assist:TO ratio. Even before the injuries Michigan was leaning on him heavily for minutes until the freshmen were somewhat more prepared. A senior reprise would have been most excellent. Is that still possible?
If not, MAAR steps into the breach. There are worse backup plans to your backup plans than a guy who put up 18 at Michigan State as a freshman and harassed DeAngelo Russell into an awful game. MAAR needs to work on his deep shooting (29% on fewer than two threes a game) and passing, but Michigan hasn't had a guy who can get to the basket like him since Trey. A bit more on him in the next section.
Minute projection: Fuzzy with injury issues. Call it Walton 25, Albrecht 15.
[After the JUMP: Caris, Dawkins, and the cavalry behind.]
Shooting Guard
[Bryan Fuller]
Starter: Caris LeVert (Sr.)
Backups: Spike Albrecht (So.), Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman (So.)
Hey! Caris LeVert. Michigan gets back a probable NBA first round draft pick for his final year, so that's nice. LeVert took on a Trey-like portion of the offense when he was available last year, and his efficiency suffered.
He's never been an efficient scorer inside the arc, as he doesn't get to the line much and tends to get stopped short of the basket. Just 17% of LeVert's shots came at the rim last year, which was less than Spike. (Your undisputed champ amongst last year's non-posts: MAAR at 34%.) The hope was that added weight would help Caris bang his way to the bucket, but the overall degradation of the offense overwhelmed any improvements he made in that department.
The rest of his statistics are solid. His three point shooting barely dropped off despite increased focus on him; he had a ton of assists and a reasonable TO rate given his role; he is a good defensive rebounder. As an all-around player he is a major asset, and if Michigan successfully spreads their shots around like we they would last year the efficiency will creep back up.
One area for concern: defense. LeVert has carried a reputation as a defensive stopper for a while without doing much other than having really long arms to justify it. He did not impress a year ago.
The backups may look familiar since they're the same guys just listed at point guard. Michigan is likely to run out dual point lineups for five minutes a game. Matchups will dictate. If Michigan's opposing a small backcourt or the opponent struggles to check a Walton/Albrecht lineup they could get 15 minutes together. If the opponent has a 6'6" shooting guard they could get zero. But even then, Beilein loves him some Spike.
The aforementioned Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman should get some minutes here. He can ballhawk opponents and drive to the rim. His development will be interesting, if mostly hidden by depth. MAAR was a very old freshman—he and LeVert were born just six days apart. That should lower expectations for improvement, but man when MAAR was on he was on last year, and some of the things he messed up were either nerves (his first few layup attempts were alarmingly off) or in the heart of Beilein's wheelhouse as a coach (shooting).
MAAR could barge his way into ten minutes a game or stagnate and appear only when foul trouble crops up. His sample size is likely to be pretty small, so extrapolating from year-end stats will be difficult. Ideally he gets to the rim like he did last year while adding some assists and getting that three-point percentage up into the acceptable range. Michigan will also want to figure out how viable he is as a point.
Minute projection: LeVert 30, Albrecht 5, MAAR 5.
Small Forward
Starter: Aubrey Dawkins (So.)
Backups: Duncan Robinson (So.*)
This position and the highly nominal "power" forward are identical in Beilein's offense, so I'm putting these guys in bins based on their likely deployment on defense. That means the relatively slight Aubrey Dawkins goes here while Zak Irvin, 25 pounds heavier, will check whatever power forward types end up on the schedule.
Dawkins first stamped his name on Michigan basketball by almost singlehandedly routing Illinois. Dawkins had 20 points on 8(!) shot equivalents, sending Illini fans into feverish Google and Kenpom searches for the random freshman who looks like Humpty Hump. That was only his second game with double-digit minutes; he would not have fewer than ten the rest of the way. After LeVert went down he averaged more than 30 minutes a game. After the dust cleared, he'd hit 48%(!) of his threes in Big Ten play.
That rate is likely unsustainable, but after Beilein tweaked Dawkins's release so he could get his shot off quicker he was deadly. It's a weird shot, very flat, but Dawkins makes it work thanks to his massive vertical.
When not shooting threes, Dawkins had the occasional spectacular dunk… and then didn't do much else. He had the lowest DREB rate on the team, the lowest non-post assist rate on team, the second-lowest FT rate. His defense was a weakness, as well.
All of these things are repairable as Dawkins gets used to what he needs to do in college. It took Zak Irvin a year and a half to break out of his tendency to leave zeroes on big chunks of the box score, but when he did so he did so decisively. Dawkins will probably take longer to do so if only because next year's team figures to have four guys in front of him when it comes to shot creating.
He can still diversify his game significantly. Hopefully Beilein will let him go after offensive boards, where his leaping ability created the occasional spectacular putback. If things go well he should also start getting the opportunities GRIII did during the Burke era. We saw hints of that last year; now that Dawkins looks to be a fixture and the pick and roll should re-emerge as a major factor the dive cut from the wing should result in rim-rattling dunks on the regular.
D-III transfer Duncan Robinson spent his redshirt year learning and pushing Nik Stauskas's various practice marksmanship records. How he translates to a D-I floor is mostly murky, but shooting is shooting is shooting. That goes double when you're a legit six-foot-eight and triple when you're near 90% at the free throw line.
Michigan is looking at a freshman version of Zak Irvin even in a reasonably pessimistic world. That seems good enough for 15 minutes a game if that is all he is, and since he's had three years in a Beilein system (his coach at Williams was an acolyte) there's a good chance he's something more than that. Robinson averaged 6.5 rebounds and almost two assists a game at Williams. He should have the size and knowledge of the offense to chip in on those two fronts.
Defense is obviously the big question. Robinson is still slender, though Camp Sanderson might change that. Also, with the team size Michigan promises to feature he could be a guy who helps out in zone.
Minute projection: Dawkins 22, Robinson 12, Miscellaneous 6. Michigan may also run lineups with LeVert at the 3 when Albrecht or MAAR is playing well, and Irvin will drop down here if Chatman or Wagner or Wilson is having a game.