Hoops Hello: Moritz Wagner

John Beilein picked up his first commit of the 2015 class today when German forward Moritz Wagner announced he'll attend Michigan:

Proud that I gonna be a Wolverine and a part of ichigan next year. Damn grateful for what Alba did for me! This is my club &always will be

— Moe Wagner (@moritz_weasley) April 5, 2015

Wagner chose the college route over playing professionally in Germany for Alba Berlin. Beilein traveled to watch Wagner play for his club team last year, and Michigan jumped to the forefront of Wagner's recruitment when they offered him last month during a campus visit.

GURU RATINGS

The recruiting services don't evaluate overseas players, so Wagner is unranked across the board. He's listed at 6'9", 210 on Rivals, which fits with reports that he isn't quite a full 6'10", which he was listed at on several sites. When Wagner visited Ann Arbor, Rivals' Eric Bossi found a scout to give his thoughts on where Wagner would be ranked if he were an American prospect:

So, exactly what type of player is Wagner? Rivals.com spoke with an NBA scout over the weekend and the scout said Moritz isn't likely as tall as the 6-foot-10 he's being listed at, but he is plenty big to play as a college four man. The scout said Wagner has good touch, is clever with the ball and that he competes on both ends of the floor.

"He's not a guy that is on our radar as somebody who is going to be a pro right away," said the scout. "He's somebody that we see going to college and then we'll see from there. I'd look at him as a top-20 to top-40 type recruit if he were in the States."

That would put him towards the tail end of the five-stars or among the top four-stars, which... yeah, that sounds nice.

SCOUTING

Scout's Evan Daniels caught up with an NBA Scout to get his take on Wagner's game:

From the video I’ve been able to get my hands on, Wagner’s all around skill set is what immediately stands out. He has impressive hands, good touch around the basket and can score both facing the rim and with his back to it.

“He’s a versatile kid who knows how to play ball,” a NBA scout that has evaluated him multiple times told Scout. “He’s not an athlete, but with his length and coordination he manages to deceive his opponents and get to the rack quiet easily. Once he becomes a more consistent shooter he will be a nightmare on the wing.”

“He reads the game well, gets his teammates involved and is unselfish player,” the NBA scout added. “The most impressive thing about him is his passion for the game and the will to win. He legitimately cares for the game.”

This scouting report from European Prospects comes from last May:

The young Moritz Wagner is a really interesting prospect for the future. Used as a PF on multiple occasions, Wagner showed that he has an outside game and that his future should be on the SF position. He can shoot from outside, either on catch-and-shoot situations or in the Pick and Pop when being the screener. Wagner can also put the ball on the floor which works particularly well when used against taller power forwards. He is also able to drive with direction changes and finish against stronger or taller players in the paint. Athletically, he is looking good and with his overall length, he is a good vertical presence on both sides of the court. Wagner really needs to be used on the wing positions in the future as he has the tools to become an interesting long small forward in the future.

Wagner still needs to hone his outside shot, but he's got great length for a Beilein wing, and he should be able to create offense off the dribble. While he isn't regarded as a one-and-done talent, his German team very much wanted to sign him to a pro contract, but Wagner reportedly wants to make it to the NBA and believes Michigan provides him the best path to get there.

OFFERS

Wagner's narrow focus on Michigan didn't allow for many other schools to come under serious consideration. When he was planning his visit, he'd also heard from Arizona, Auburn, Cal, Duke, Providence, Virginia, and UNLV. That's a pretty impressive list of suitors for an overseas prospect making a late decision.

STATS

From UMHoops:

In the NBBL (German youth league), Wagner is averaging 17 points, 5 rebounds, two assists and two steals per game while shooting 61% on twos and 30% on threes. He also averaged 9.6 points and 5.4 rebounds during the Adidas Next Generation U18 Tournament, helping Alba Berlin to a third-place finish.

Playing with Germany’s U18 team in the FIBA Euro Championships, Wagner averaged 5.2 points and three rebounds in 10 minutes a game.

The outside shot needs some work, but that's some impressive efficiency inside the arc.

VIDEO

Going from most to least recent:

While his athleticism doesn't jump off the screen, his skill level is apparent.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

Wagner is going to need some time adding bulk at Camp Sanderson, and his slight physique—and still-developing shot—may limit his minutes as a freshman, especially if Caris LeVert comes back and a logjam results on the wings. He'll most likely be competing with Duncan Robinson and Kameron Chatman for a spot in the rotation, and of the three we've only been able to see Chatman play at this level.

Down the road, he's a very intriguing prospect. Michigan really missed having a player at the four who could create off the dribble, and while Aubrey Dawkins made some progress in that regard late in the season, Wagner looks like the most polished slasher among the guys who could play at that spot. If his outside shot comes along, he could be a very impactful stretch four. 

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Wagner's commitment means Michigan is currently at the scholarship limit for 2015-16, and that's assuming Max Bielfeldt will move on to another program for his fifth year, as expected. If LeVert departed for the NBA, that'd open up a spot. Michigan is still in pursuit of five-star 2015 forward Jaylen Brown, and should he decide he wants to attend, it's hard to imagine Michigan wouldn't have a spot for him, perhaps by putting Austin Hatch on medical scholarship; there have been some positive indicators for Brown since his visit, but he's still expected to end up elsewhere.

Unless Brown makes a surprise choice to come to Michigan, this should be the conclusion of the program's 2015 recruiting.