Show me the Peppers! [Fuller]
The Question:
Ace: Aside from the quarterbacks, which position group and specific player will you be keeping the closest eye on during the Spring Game?
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The Responses:
Seth: Safety, Peppers.
I have a pretty good idea of what the corners can do—Countess can zone like a boss but isn't sized or speedy enough for lockdown press man—and I can't really tell what happens on the OL or DL without video. Quarterback is missing one or two contenders. Where the slot side safety lines up will tell us how aggressive they think they can get, especially when it's Peppers in that spot.
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| My recurring nightmare |
Also I'm anxious to see who among Dymonte, Clark, and Hill can play when Peppers comes down to nickel. Hill has a bad rap in my brain from getting so turned around against Lippett on the TD pass that debarked the end of the game and the beginning of Dantonio's Revenge for Imagined Slights Hour. I hate it when a bad play is what sticks out to me about a guy and I really want to start banking some nice thoughts. Same for Dymonte and Clark. One of those three or Stribling is going to be at least half a starter in the nickel, and if it's Stribling we are back to a nickel who's not a run defender (ie Countess). The floor on this defense is pretty okay; I want to see how high the cathedral can go.
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Alex Cook: I feel like this is a somewhat obvious answer, but I'll be focused on our secondary, which projects to be the best unit on the team by a fair amount. The offensive line is compelling for an entirely different reason; I'd like to see some breakout performances on the D-Line; QB is a clear concern, of course; but I'm very excited about the secondary.
Jabrill Peppers is the headliner there and, after a freshman year ruined by injury, Michigan fans surely are going to be thrilled to see him out there. He's probably the best player on the team and -- depending on if he plays on offense / special teams units -- he could be the most important non-quarterback on the team. Beyond Peppers, there's Jourdan Lewis, who's very good in my opinion, locking down one of the corner spots; I'm most optimistic about he and Peppers of anyone on the squad this year. There's Jarrod Wilson, who's unremarkable in the best way possible; there's Blake Countess, who didn't play well after recovering from ACL surgery (but could be in for a rebound season); there's Channing Stribling, who stands out immediately because of his size; Wayne Lyons won't be there, but he could start. There's a lot of depth there and if you're looking for a group to get excited about, watch the secondary.
[After the jump: aggresssssssssssiveeeeeeeeeee]
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David Nasternak: Position Group: Secondary. Cornerbacks, mostly, though. 2014 was supposed to be Michigan's transition to press coverage. That lasted for a game...well, effectively, anyway. In 2015, it sounds like the new staff is making another commitment to playing press coverage and I couldn't be more thrilled! However, the results need to be a lot better. With Jabrill Peppers looking like he's moving to safety, it appears that the pressing duties will fall primarily onto Jourdan Lewis, Blake Countess, and Channing Stribling.
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| Ways was the buzz of August last year; maybe he'll be this year's spring thing. [via 247] |
Lewis probably showed the most competence in man coverage, last season. Countess did not, however, consistently show the quickness to be able to stay with wide-outs right off of the line. Was there still a lingering affect from his 2012 injury? Is man coverage just not his strong suit? Or will he have a strong finish to his Michigan career? Stribling showed mixed results but probably still too small of a sample size to draw a strong conclusion.
In any case, Michigan's man coverage from their corners is going to be vital on defense in 2015. Improvements from last season must be made. One burning question that I do have: If the cornerback play does NOT improve enough and Delano Hill holds his own -with Jarrod Wilson occupying the other safety position- will Durkin slide Peppers back down to corner?
Player: Moe Ways. While I half-intended to put Blake Countess or Delano Hill in this spot (I'll still definitely still be keeping an eye on both of them), I am just very intrigued to see this guy compete. I already picked him as my offensive spring breakout player. While I'm not convinced that Michigan has a far-and-away #1 receiving threat, Ways bring a lot of challenges to any secondary. I've seen and heard some of the plays he's been making in spring practice, and I think that he will be as tough a mark as our CBs will see before the season starts. I'm not only excited to see if Ways continues to impress but also how the much-scrutinized secondary will defend him in isolated conditions.
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Adam Schnepp: If you're looking for a unit to get excited about, do what Seth and Alex and Dave said and watch the secondary. If you're looking for a group to fill you with abject terror, join me in watching the wide receivers. I guess this means I'll also be keeping a close eye on the tight ends (PHRASING), specifically those tight ends who are receivers by proxy (Butt, Bunting, et al.)
Michigan's leading returning receiver is Amara Darboh, who was the target of 21.8% of Michigan's passing attempts in 2014. His yards per target was a respectable 7.1, but his catch rate was a lackluster 53.7%. Jehu Chesson, the recipient of 7.8% of Michigan's targets, had a mediocre catch rate of 58.3% and averaged 6.4 yards per target. Dennis Norfleet had a catch rate of 68.2%, which seems to be about what you'd want for a slot receiver. After that is Freddy Canteen, whose 38.5% catch rate and 1.7 yards per target are far below what I expect from a guy who can do this. With no returning receiver outside of Darboh being targeted more than 10% of the time last season (Jake Butt was next highest at 9.4%) there's a lot of uncertainty and also a lot of room for guys to grow.
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| We will accept all the bad Taco metonymy in the world if it's because he's consistently harassing quarterbacks. [Fuller] |
This leads me to the specific player I'll be watching: Brian Cole. He's been the recipient of a lot of buzz throughout spring practice; Jedd Fisch said he has great ball skills and makes tremendous plays, and that he's going to be great once he knows what he's doing. I don't think I can summarize my perceived state of the receiving corps better than being really excited about a very young (he's an early enrollee), freakishly athletic guy who doesn't know what he's doing. Also, I'd be lying if I said I won't be watching Jabrill Peppers because I've purchased a first-class ticket on that hype train and it's finally time to board.
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Brian: I'll be looking at the defensive line in order to see what they're going to be doing with it. The site has been riding pretty hard for the idea that a true three-man line is not in the offing against most teams. (Florida did run a lot of 30 fronts against ECU's extreme spread 'em out offense.) I'd like to see if this is a real 3-4 or just a gussied up 4-3 under. As you know, my guess is the latter.
Individually I'll be looking at Taco Charlton and Lawrence Marshall. Pass rush has been a major weak spot of the defense for the past few years and those two guys are the ones most likely to help. Marshall's been impressive enough to get press conference mentions as the most improved guy from a staff that seems recalcitrant when it comes to specifying things like that. Meanwhile Charlton is a physical marvel who hasn't turned that into consistent production yet. He's always going to be on the verge of busting out until he busts out; if this is the year that happens that would be nice.
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Seth: The thing about the receivers is they're so quarterback-dependent. One of my heuristics for spring is I translate comments about uncertainty at a position coming from the coaches as a bad thing, and with the QBs there's certainly reason to think all of them are probably behind on the playbook that arrived a few months ago. Here's Drevno on the QB competition as it stands:
Yes it can get to serviceable before Labor Day weekend (yay for Rudock news!). For the expressed purpose of assessing wide receivers in the spring game however this bodes unwell.
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Ace: Well, fine, I'll be the one to say offensive line, for all the incredibly obvious reasons that we certainly don't need to discuss. Given the lineup shuffling, no Graham Glasgow*, and the way spring ball works—the defense is almost always ahead of the offense, unless the defense is 2009-level bad—I don't expect them to blow anyone away, but I'll be looking out for who seems to be adapting the best to the new schemes.
I'll be keeping closest watch on Kyle Kalis, who's getting a lot of practice hype, and Logan Tuley-Tillman; if LTT can be a legitimate option at tackle, that'll go a long way towards ensuring Michigan can throw a solid group out there even if they sustain an injury. One of the harbingers of doom from the past few seasons has been seeing how far behind the second unit has been from the starters, and it's not like the starters have been all that great to begin with; we should see that gap narrow as Brady Hoke's strong offensive line recruiting finally gives this group some depth.
*(I assume? He's been practicing but he's still suspended.)
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Adam: I definitely agree that anything receivers-related is reliant upon the quarterback(s) to the point where it should be taken with more a cube of salt, but if they can't get off the line of scrimmage against the defense's new/old press coverage then I'll know to ratchet my offensive expectations down a notch.
Maybe I'm just blinded by the enthusiasm in Tim Drevno's voice. If Drevno was a hashtag he would be #EUTM. I'm still trying to figure out how best to transcribe his pressers; italics lose their effect if I italicize the whole thing.