This Week's Obsession: Basketball Postmortem

In defense of 2015 [Fuller]

The Question

Ace: There's no question this basketball season was a strange one. Michigan headed in with many question marks but high expectations, started off the season with a couple quality wins and a very competitive game against one-seed Villanova, went on to lose head-scratchers against NJIT and EMU before getting run off the court by Arizona, lost their two best players to injury, and then saw flashes of great promise from several players that didn't necessarily show up in the team's final record.

Let's try to make some sense of this. What about this season would you consider a success, what was a failure, and how did it affect your expectations for the program moving forward?

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Failures

Adam Schnepp: I've placed my hands on the keyboard and taken them off three times before I typed this, but not making the NCAA tournament is a failure. I'm hesitant because of the stark negative connotation of the word "failure."

Anything that leads to more Dakich isn't so much "failure" as "awesomesauce with a silver lining." [Fuller]

This is a failure that happened because of course it did. As the hockey guy I'm used to watching the type of failure where you have a team loaded with talent that underperforms and shoots itself in the foot until there's nothing left. Nothing. Not even, like, a bloody remnant that doctors could reconstruct. Just, poof, gone. This is a completely different kind of failure, a failure in which there are explanations (NBA attrition, injuries that led to a lineup Tom Izzo would find weird) that make sense and extend beyond "this is just what we do now."

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Dave Nasternak: Michigan Basketball isn't in the same place that it was seven years ago (one huge mess, but with John Beilein). Its not even in the same place that it was 3 years ago (bummed about a tournament upset but only a round or two away from its ceiling). After seeing the faces of the players and coaches in that hotel in Atlanta two Aprils ago, this program expects to succeed at the highest level. National Championships, Final Fours, Sweet Sixteens, NCAA Tournament games, Big Ten Championships (regular season and tournament) are all accomplishments that this program expects to be competing for every year.

And that's the right answer. As Michigan players/staff/alumni/fans/constituents... that's why we are connected with this University. Now, we don't consistently get the freshmen that Kentucky and Duke get every year, so some of these goals will be a little too lofty from time to time. But I am willing to bet that if you asked people in and around the program if they were supremely disappointed with not obtaining some (most, all) of these goals, they would not only verbally say that they were, but that you would also be able to see it on their faces. That's just what the Michigan Basketball program has achieved.

[after the jump: no more dancing. Around the question I mean. Lots of the other dancing (not That dancing)]

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Seth:  Michigan is a big operation, part of a larger athletic department, academic institution, and national athletic assocation, and sometimes the failures of a single division stem from decisions at corporate. The biggest failure of this season is one such, when the NCAA decided to go ahead with a ludicrous year's suspension, effectively an expulsion, to Mitch McGary for a first marijuana offense.

If McGary had worn a tie to the Tennessee game we're not having this conversation right now. [Upchurch]

I thank Brian for putting that Python interlude in this week's podcast, because every time I think about it I have to stop what I'm doing and stomp around a room for 20 minutes. (We don't keep pie in the house anymore for this reason). Here's a guy who'd make anybody's list of what's worth keeping about collegiate athletics, and they threw the book at him for something most NCAA athletes do, that wouldn't be a one-game suspension at most schools, would be half the length if it happened a week later because they'd already decided their mandatory minimum was stupid, and won't be illegal at all in a decade. I wouldn't advocate punching Mark Emmert in the dick because we ought not to be the sort of society that needs vigilante dickpunch justice, but yeah, I'd like to see that guy get punched in the dick.

Nothing else about this season qualifies as a "failure." Add McGary to this team and Michigan is probably a 6th seed that beat Villanova and Wisconsin twice, goes out in the Sweet 16, and goes in the trophy case for winning a Big Ten Tourney without Walton and LeVert. The EMU-NJIT portion of the season hung around their necks the whole way, but replace kid bigs with Mitch and those are at worst Akron-UConn scares. The single most damaging thing to this season was Michigan's compliance with a feckless, arbitrary, corrupt, and capricious organizing committee. I'd say that happens sometimes, but the thing about being the worst example of how much Emmert's NCAA sucks is there's no silver lining.

I guess Beilein auto-benching policy failed when the bench was down to the color commentator's kid. That won't be a problem next year.

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Alex Cook: Failure is an appropriate term, I think. Even though this team eventually became quite likable and we got to see flashes of potential, this was a preseason Top-25 squad that didn't even make the NIT. Like Brian mentioned, even without the injuries to LeVert and Walton - which almost seemed like a mercy kill at the time - it was pretty unlikely that this team would make the NCAA Tournament, which is the most universal barometer for moderate success in college basketball.

It won't be any fun rehashing the failures, so I won't. It was a tough step back as a program, but look at Florida: the Gators went to four consecutive Elite Eights and, in the season following the attrition of that nucleus (this year), finished with a losing record. After their back-to-back National Championships about a decade ago, they missed the Tournament twice. This year, UConn followed up their surprise National Title run with a woefully disappointing season. It happens. Michigan had more early entries over the last two years than anyone (if my math's correct) and lost its best two players to season-ending injury. Nobody can come back from that.

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Ace: Ugh, I woke up to answer this and realized I hate the way I phrased the question, because "failure" is far too harsh a term. (Except regarding NJIT. That was a failure.)

What disappointed this year? When adjusting expectations for Michigan's injuries, most of the team's problems stemmed from freshmen not magically developing into not-freshmen, and since Father Time isn't employed by the athletic department there's not a whole lot of blame to be thrown around there. It would've been nice to see Zak Irvin develop into a true on-ball threat before the final couple weeks of the season, but that disappointment is very much mitigated by his play of late.

While the work John Beilein did developing a very young roster was among his best, his in-game coaching didn't adjust as well as I'd hoped once LeVert and Walton went down. We've covered this to death, but handling foul trouble is a different animal when your bench guards are walk-ons than when you've got the type of depth Michigan should have next season; Beilein's refusal to make that adjustment may have cost Michigan a game or two. His body of work is still unimpeachable, however.

Breaking news: Michigan has announced that Father Time will be joining Jim Harbaugh's staff as a development assistant. Time will also be responsible for getting the CARA reports in.

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Brian: I don't know, Ace. I think "failure" is justified for a few things. Michigan didn't make the tournament and was in tough even if they remained healthy largely because they suffered two really, really horrible losses. Both those games, and generally the miserable post-'Nova nonconference stretch, were failures. It's okay to fail sometimes, and when it happens we should just say it. November and December fit the criteria. 

But okay I'm going to name some names here so let's change "failure" into "thing that I thought would go better":

Kam Chatman. Michigan is used to their big recruits coming in and having positive impact. With McGary it took a while; Irvin and Walton were immediate contributors, if not stars. Chatman was so far away from that. He airballed his first three and that was pretty close to his whole season. He was frequently benched for lineups featuring who-dats; if you were going to ask anyone who the touted top 50 recruit in this class was they would have gone with Dawkins, Doyle, MAAR and injured DJ Wilson before going "really?!?!" when you said Chatman.

Chatman did show flashes at the end of the season: a pretty take to the bucket here, a terrific entry pass there. It's clear he's a long-term project and not an instant star.

Mark Donnal. Donnal brings the best combination of size and experience amongst Michigan's bigs and still lost almost all of his playing time to Max Bielfeldt, who is a 6'7" center. He is a 6'7" center who was much much better on defense than Donnal, though. So it goes. Young bigs are generally real bad unless they're prodigy five-star types (even McGary needed most of a season to work his way into the starting lineup), and Donnal is no exception. He should improve. I'm a bit dubious he'll be able to keep pace with Wilson, let alone Doyle. 

The Doyle situation went whatever is the opposite of things we think could have gone better. [Fuller]

Living without Stauskas. Michigan's offense never recovered from the departure of their evil not just a shooter, and this was the case even with LeVert. Michigan's previously lethal pick and roll game evaporated until Zak Irvin revived it late, and with that out the door it was a lot of old-timey cuts and such from the 334th most experience team in America. Beilein expressed frustration that his guys were just not getting it before the season even kicked off, and that criticism was borne out in an ugly offensive season that was more Amaker than what we've become accustomed to.

Successes

Brian, cont.: And the most promising things:

Beilein's eye for talent. No one is 100%; I would put Beilein and his staff's ability to find diamonds in the rough up there with anyone. Aubrey Dawkins almost doesn't count because how the hell could you look at that guy and not instantly offer if you were 1) any mid-major in the country or 2) high-major teams up to and including Iowa/Illinois-type mid-tier battlers. But he does count because they didn't. MAAR was a minor revelation as well; Doyle has more skill than any freshman big not named McGary since Webber. Don't even get me started on Spike.

Chatman was a disappointment, but when it comes to plucking no-names out of obscurity who's got it better than us?

...and the fact that that eye has landed on folks who will be around a while. Michigan got not only a very solid class of recruits but a class that looks like it will be around for the next three years without exception. Dawkins may be an exception but he took a grad year and will not have the sort of age profile that NBA teams covet; it's hard to see the rest of the guys going early. Michigan clearly needed some stability after NBA draft after NBA draft featuring Wolverines; this class provides it, and now Michigan hopes to fill in holes with stars.

The Irvin surge. I'm skeptical of claims that this injury was good because it put this guy who wasn't injured in a different position. Not so in this case. Irvin was content to be a gunner who added a little bit of drive to his game for much of the year. This even continued after the two major injuries, but eventually Irvin got yelled at enough that he realized that he had to generate shots. He did so, efficiently, and Michigan's offense rose with his assist totals. The previous two years Michigan thrived with some of the most balanced offenses in America (Stauskas shot%: 23. QED.); Irvin developing a tripartite drive, pass, and shoot game will be immensely positive for next year's team.

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Dave: Despite the [answers above], there were quite extenuating circumstances surrounding this year and only looking at what didn't materialize would be criminal. Over the last three to four seasons, Michigan's freshmen were hyped -and then mostly played up to- to national attention. After amazing first seasons, Burke, Hardaway, Robinson, and McGary were all thought to have a chance to head to the NBA. They all returned for at least their second season. While no one thought Walton or Irvin would leave after last season, a great 14-15 season could send them along with the others. Even heading into February of 2015, this year's freshman class held no such contenders. However, the development of all 5 freshmen (+Donnal, -Wilson) has been very significant.

MAAR and Dawkins were once talked about as redshirts. Then, MAAR almost beats State at Breslin, locks down Trimble, and Dawkins threatens various Michigan scoring records. Chatman and Donnal play their way out of minutes and then start making contributions in crunch time, late in the season. Doyle, who started the year rather well, had a dip (will illness), but even improved his ball-screens and defense by Mid-March. Not to mention Zak Irvin is a completely different player than he was even a month ago. And Spike Albrecht went Nash enough times to remind everyone that even though Walton will be returning, he's more than just a backup point guard. Player Development.

While no one was happy with the Levert and Walton injuries, they put the rest of the players in a position to up their games to a Big Ten level...and to really build some team chemistry. Look who's coming to Camp Sanderson, this summer: everyone. Not to mention taking half the league to OT and beating down Ohio State.

Also: Max Bielfeldt.

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Adam: Player development. Just look at the graphs Alex made of MAAR and Dawkins' points per game and Irvin's rebounds and assists per game. Wooo upward trends.

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Alex: As for successes, I think you can look at a few things. Zak Irvin's eventual development was a little more delayed than we would have liked, but by the end of the year he shed his role as a complementary artillery piece and became the guy who carried the team at times with his wonderfully well-rounded play. Aubrey Dawkins and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman were silver linings; Dawkins could be a terror in a microwave role off the bench and Rahkman plays with a style unique to Beilein's Michigan - he's a tough, hard-nosed perimeter defender and attacks the rim without fear on offense. Ricky Doyle was as good as anybody could have expected when healthy. Spike Albrecht showed that he can definitely be more than an adequate backup - he could be a legitimately good starter.

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Ace: The successes, as covered above, mostly related to players taking major steps forward over the course of the season. Nothing signified how far this team had come than the late-season resurgence of the ball-screen offense. Michigan went from having nobody who could really run it (once LeVert and Walton went down) to having three options—Irvin, Spike, and MAAR—who each could work the high screen and be productive out of it. Just as importantly, Ricky Doyle got a whole lot better as a screen-and-roll option. We'll see a lot more of it next year.

Dawkins's star soared like THE_KNOWLEDGE that Beilein can spot 'em. . . . Yes. [Patrick Barron]

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Seth: Yeah this what a Beilein down year looks like: blamable injuries, progressing youth, lots of promise, and at least one hat-hanging moment to remember it by. We've reached so often of late into the areas inhabited by Caliparis that we nearly forgot we got the guy who rewrote the script for pluck at Canisius, Richmond and West Virginia.

Beilein has built a four-year program at Michigan that hit a hot streak so you could make a starting five out of guys in the NBA with eligibility remaining this year. It took two more major injury losses before it was plucky enough to recalibrate to when Spike was a guy nabbed from Appalachian State because Trey Burke's possessions appeared on Twitter in garbage bags one morning.

I left the youngsters for here because clear progression. As of Harbaugh* night I was already downgrading my career expectations for Chatman, forgetting at the time that his hype was due to being a wing-sized distributor, and where to go with the ball in a Beilein offense takes time to pick up. Plot him on a point guard progression and he's right in line. Irvin began to add his "and" about the same point this year that THJ and GRIII did previously. LeVert before his injury was operating at full Alpha Dog level.
By the time it got to popsicle stick and bubble gum time people in Crisler were asking "How was Dawkins going to end up at Dayton?" and weren't questioning MAAR's shot selection.

Fate dealt Michigan zero wins from those it tempted us with, and saved us from none. But we got to beat on Ohio State, and we now get to spend an off-season dreaming big.

Also Bielfeldt's calves. Great success.

* [You guys we got HARBAUGH!]

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Expectations

Ace: If LeVert returns, my expectations for next season are very high; with all that depth, Michigan should easily be back in the tournament and I think they'll compete for the Big Ten title. Even without LeVert, this team could go ten-deep and make a push to contend. The last three weeks of Zak Irvin alone substantially bolstered my hopes for next season.

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Dave: For Michigan, I really believe expectations remain the same.  Competing for the Big Ten title and making a run in the NCAA Tournament.  How far?  That's tough to say 365 days ahead of time.  But with everyone coming back (possibly even Levert...and maybe Bielfedt?), another Camp Sanderson Summer, adding a supposed shooting prodigy in Duncan Robinson, Michigan seems to be in as good of shape as anyone else in the Big Ten.  While many one-and-dones can change the scope of a team or a league -and I'm sure next year will bring enough- Michigan has been able to compete with ball movement, player development, and intelligent basketball play...not to mention the constant stream of unearthed Beilein jewels.

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Adam: Remain unchanged. A single down year doesn't mean a program is down and out. Michigan showed enough from January on to engender optimism for next season. Plus, that was with a rotation that was missing Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton and heavily featured a 6-8 center and an injured Spike Albrecht. As detailed in the podcast, Michigan's going to have as deep a rotation as they ever have next season. I forsee no Hokeian decline for John Beilein's program.

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Alex: This year reminds me of 2009-2010 more than anything, and that Michigan team lost a lot of talent in the offseason before rebounding to make the NCAA Tournament. I'd be really surprised if the Wolverines weren't back next year.

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Seth: I mean, we've all scribbled down our LeVert and no-LeVert minutes predictions already, if we haven't shared them. We're hyped. I expect Walton takes the sophomore leap he was too hurt to take this season, Irvin kind of frustrates us when in November he's backtracked from last bit of this season, MAAR earns 15 minutes as a defensive stopper we haven't had since forever, and other Beilein things.

My crazy prediction because non-crazy predictions are no fun is Donnal looks okay enough in a 12-15 mins/g role that we start backtracking from the delicately phrased statements and make blind comparisons to various freshman bigs with three strokes. In fact why not:

1. Jordan Morgan, 2. Mark Donnal, 3. Kevin Pittsnogle, 4. Frank Kaminksy. Donnal will never be 6'11, but since Doyle's gonna be okay we can go back to Donnal being a three threat of the distant future.

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Brian: Ask me again once LeVert decides. Provisionally, I expect Michigan will be back in the Big Ten hunt and a Sweet 16 seed next year.