THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT |
Michigan (16-15, 8-10 B1G) vs Wisconsin (28-3, 16-2) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
United Center, Chicago, Illinois |
| WHEN | Noon ET, Friday |
| LINE | Wisconsin -12 (KenPom) |
| TV | ESPN |
Right: Michigan gets another chance to topple the titans of the Big Ten. [Marc Gregor/MGoBlog]
THE US
Derrick Walton went through warmups before the Illinois game, though on the broadcast the announcers relayed that John Beilein didn't expect him to play. After the game, Walton left open the possibility of a return tomorrow:
"It's day-by-day," Walton said of his injury. "I try to see what I can do, do some warm-ups, see how I feel and if it feels well I'll play."
It'd be quite a surprise if he was able to start (or play close to starter's minutes), but some more help off the bench would be quite welcome.
After two straight strong performances as the starter, Max Bielfeldt will again take the tipoff at center. He's certainly earned it with his recent play.
THE STAKES
If Michigan wins, they're almost undoubtedly in the NIT, and they'd have a winnable semifinal game against Purdue—unless Penn State pulls another big upset—to get into the conference title game. As it stands, the Wolverines are on the NIT bubble; they had work to do to get in heading into today, but the resounding win over the Illini may have pushed them into the field.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 24 | Bronson Koenig | So. | 6'4, 190 | 82 | 17 | No | ||||||||||||
| Low usage, very efficient PG. Shot 45% from three in Big Ten play. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 21 | Josh Gasser | Sr. | 6'4, 192 | 85 | 11 | No | ||||||||||||
| DEATH TO BACKBOARDS | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 15 | Sam Dekker | Jr. | 6'9, 230 | 81 | 22 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
| Extremely efficient inside the arc, not a great outside shooter. Solid rebounder. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 10 | Nigel Hayes | So. | 6'8, 235 | 84 | 21 | No | ||||||||||||
| Excellent rebounder, nice touch around hoop, now has 3-pt range. | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 44 | Frank Kaminsky | Sr. | 7'0, 234 | 80 | 29 | No | ||||||||||||
| 1st in KenPom POY race. Nightmare matchup, can score in post or bomb threes. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 13 | Duje Dukan | Sr. | 6'10, 218 | 36 | 19 | No | ||||||||||||
| Struggling with his shot. Not much of a rebounder. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 3 | Zak Showalter | So. | 6'2, 185 | 19 | 16 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Not asked to do much in his limited minutes. 31.5 eFG% in conference play. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 30 | Vitto Brown | So. | 6'8, 237 | 12 | 23 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Good rebounder, not a huge offensive threat. | |||||||||||||||||||
THE RESUME
Rampaged through the Big Ten. Only conference losses came at Maryland and, uh, Rutgers. There's no way to explain the latter, even when accounting for Frank Kaminsky's absence in that game.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Wisconsin's rotation hasn't changed since the first matchup, and given the quick turnaround I'm just going to point you in the direction of that game's preview. Short version: they're terrifyingly good.
THE TEMPO-FREE
We've got enough of a sample size that these stats are now conference-only.
Wisconsin's offense threatened to pass Michigan's record for offensive efficiency in the KenPom era, set last season, before cooling off a touch and having to settle for posting the best mark in the country this season. They're one of the top ten teams in the country in two-point percentage, above-average from beyond the arc, and they turn the ball over less than anyone in the nation.
The Badger defense is merely good, finishing third in the league in efficiency. They make up for a lack of turnovers forced by making it very tough to score inside, rarely fouling, and dominating the glass.
THE KEYS
Find a way to the rim. If Michigan tries to win this by hoisting a bunch of contested threes over Wisconsin's pack-line defense, this one could get ugly in a hurry. M's guards are going to have to figure out a way to work inside the arc; if they can't get all the way to the basket, they need to at least be creating something besides difficult floaters.
Defend inside and hope. Wisconsin finally pulled away from Michigan in overtime the first time around by feeding Kaminsky in the post; Sam Dekker also had a significant impact, hitting all five of his shots inside the arc. Michigan must do everything they can to stop those two—and Nigel Hayes—from getting easy buckets. That probably means allowing some open shots from the outside; in this matchup, M probably has to hope for a poor shooting performance from Wisconsin, which isn't out of the question—they went just 7/21 from three in the first matchup.
Win The Game. Might as well do the damn thing, right?
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Wisconsin by 12.
If it goes the way KenPom expects, at least we won't have to see those stupid fanny-pack uniformz any longer.