Big Ten Tourney Preview: Illinois

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Nnanna Egwu contests jumper, stares straight into your soul. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE STAKES

In Michigan's case, "win or go home" takes on a greater significance tomorrow. Not only do the Wolverines need to beat Illinois to stay alive in the Big Ten Tournament—and keep any NCAA pipe dream* going—but they'll most likely need two wins this weekend just to qualify for the NIT.

It's been a rough week for Michigan's postseason hopes. The NIT guarantees spots for teams that win their conference regular-season title but lose in their conference tournament; after Robert Morris and North Dakota State knocked off St. Francis (NY) and South Dakota State, respectively, last night, seven such automatic bids have been claimed. That's burst several bubbles in the process, potentially including Michigan's: The Bracket Matrix and DRatings both left Michigan out of the NIT field in their latest updates. NYC Buckets has M as a seven-seed clinging to one of the last at-large bids.

Meanwhile, Illinois is on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble; they've got plenty to play for this weekend.

*And a pipe dream it is: KenPom's log5 analysis gives Michigan an 0.2% chance at winning the BTT, and just a 2.9% chance of making it past Illinois and Wisconsin.

THE US

Ricky Doyle, who missed the Rutgers game due to illness, will be a "full go" tomorrow, according to John Beilein. Doyle could've given it a go last weekend, but with Michigan cruising to victory that wasn't necessary.

Derrick Walton is doubtful to play.

THE LAST TIME

Michigan took on Illinois at Crisler in the Big Ten opener, a game that feels like it took place decades ago. A torrent of threes from Aubrey Dawkins and a surprise changeup to the 2-3 zone led to a comeback, overtime victory on the day Jim Harbaugh was introduced as head coach.

The return trip to Champaign didn't go quite as well. Michigan surprisingly controlled much of the game... and then allowed a 21-2 run to close the game, including a 14-2 margin in the overtime period. Aubrey Dawkins had a really sick dunk, at least.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

Illinois is looking to play their way into the NCAA Tournament after finishing an even 9-9 in conference play. Faced with a pretty tough slate, they dropped four of their last six after their second meeting with Michigan.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Illinois has been previewedtwice this season already, so I won't go into too much depth here. Malcolm Hill and Rayvonte Rice are the dangermen. Rice did most of his damage off the dribble last season, but this year he's become a major threat shooting the three above the break; he's also a skilled passer who can run the offense. Rice didn't do much against Michigan last time around in his first game back from a wrist injury (and a brief suspension), but he's been on fire since.

Hill had a breakout year, earning all-conference honorable mention; there are many, myself included, who would've rather seen him get third-team honors than unabashed chucker Terran Pettaway. Hill can score from just about anywhere, especially if it's on the left side of the court (via Shot Analytics):

Kendrick Nunn and Ahmad Starks give Illinois two more outside shooting threats in the starting lineup, though neither is particularly efficient inside the arc. Nnanna Egwu provides rebounding and defense; while ostensibly a post-up threat, he's really struggled on offense this year, hitting just 41% of his twos in Big Ten play.

The Illini depth has taken a hit since the injury, suspension, and eventual departure of guard Aaron Cosby, who started 13 games before losing his job to Starks. That leaves Jaylon Tate as the primary backup in the backcourt; he's a low-usage guy who's good at getting to the line and bad at taking care of the ball. Leron Black is an excellent rebounder off the bench, while Maverick Morgan is a below-average backup big.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only numbers:

Four factors explanation

Illinois posted identical 100.9 efficiency rates on both offense and defense in conference play; that was good for the Big Ten's fourth-worst offense and fifth-best defense.

The offense suffered because the Illini shot a league-worst 41.4% on two-pointers, which their average three-point shooting and league-best free throw percentage couldn't offset. Not helping matters: they don't generate may second-chance opportunites or get to the line that often. With several solid ballhandlers, it shouldn't be surprising that Illinois is one of the best teams in the conference at taking care of the ball.

The defense also struggled inside the arc in the Big Ten, allowing opponents to hit just under 50% of their twos. Illinois protects the glass and forces their fair share of turnovers—Rice and Egwu both posted top-ten steal rates in the B1G.

THE KEYS

Run them off the line. Illinois has a bunch of guys who are above average outside shooters and below average inside the arc: Rice, Hill, and Nunn all shot in the low 40s from two in conference play, while Starks was all the way down at 36%. Michigan needs to keep the intensity up when guarding the three-point line; if they can force Illinois into a bunch of two-point jumpers, that'll be a great sign.

Keep working the high screen. Dylan posted a worthwhile article this week on Michigan's ball screen offense, which has improved in both volume and quality in the absence of Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton. Michigan now has it in three flavors: Zak Irvin (off-dribble jumpers), Spike Albrecht (passes and pull-up threes), and MAAR (drives to the hoop); all have been relatively effective. Against an Illinois team that struggles to defend inside the arc, it's worth drawing Egwu away from the hoop and trying to attack.

Win The Game. Find a way, because if they don't, the season is almost certainly over.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Illinois by 3.

Not only are the Illini the better team with a fully healthy Rayvonte Rice, they've got a whole lot more to play for tomorrow.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. MnB's Drew Hallett takes a closer look at M's chances in the BTT.

Michigan was shut out of All-Big Ten honors; in fact, they were the only team without an honorable mention. In a league that includes Rutgers, I'd take issue with that if I cared more about awards.

MLive's Brendan F. Quinn with a couple solid reads this week: a sitdown with Kam Chatman and a look at win/loss statistical splits:

In wins, Irvin made 43.8 percent of his field-goal attempts and 40.4 percent of his 3-pointers. Both shooting percentage were actually higher than LeVert's in the 11 wins he played in.

In losses, Irvin shot 36.1 percent from the field and 29.7 percent on 3s.

Make shots, Zak.

In recruiting news, Scout's Evan Daniels reports Michigan offered 2015 German forward Moritz Wagner, who visited last weekend. The Wolverine has more details ($):

"He's up in the air on further visits at this point," [Rivals analyst Eric] Bossi said. "He's not likely to decide by early to mid-April (late signing period). There is a push from some around him to sign a contract and play pro ball in Germany, but he wants college as way to try and get to the NBA."

Michigan is the heavy favorite if Wagner, as expected, chooses college ball over signing a contract with Alba Berlin, his German team. Bossi said Wagner would be a "top 20 to 40 type prospect" if he were ranked alongside American preps in the 2015 class.