Preview: Rutgers

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Goodnight, sweet calves. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE US

Crisler will host Senior Day festivities for Max Bielfeldt tomorrow before tipoff, which should end any speculation Michigan will bring him back for a fifth year in 2015-16. Bielfeldt became an unexpectedly critical contributor this season after there years spent mostly on the bench. His calves have been, remain, and presumably always will be magnificent.

UPDATE: As it turns out, Bielfeldt will start tomorrow:

Beilein says Max Bielfeldt will start tomorrow for Senior Day. Ricky Doyle has not practiced b/c of an intestinal problem.

— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) March 6, 2015

As for Derrick Walton, there's less and less optimism he'll make it back onto the court this season:

"We're running out of time," U-M coach John Beilein said Wednesday night on his weekly radio show. "We're guaranteed at least two more games, but he has not been able to do anything close to going at full speed. When he pushes off in certain ways, it bothers him. His (practices) with us are usually very short -- 10 or 15 minutes."

To sum it up, Walton is still not pain-free.

Until he is, he won't play.

Today, Beilein confirmed Walton is out for Rutgers and said he's "doubtful" for the Big Ten Tournament. I don't see much reason to push it at this point.

THE LAST TIME

In the first game after Caris LeVert went down for the year with a broken foot, an illness-ravaged Michigan squad edged past Rutgers, 54-50. The then-novelty of seeing freshmen and walk-ons stepping into bigger roles helped make up for the game's lack of aesthetic appeal.

THE STAKES

A loss to Rutgers probably dooms Michigan's NIT hopes unless they make a solid run in the Big Ten Tournament. There are also potential BTT seeding ramifications: Michigan should be the #9 seed (facing off against either Illinois or Indiana) unless they lose to Rutgers, Northwestern beats Iowa, and Wisconsin beats Ohio State—then M would be the #10 seed.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

Rutgers has lost 13 in a row, which dates back to two games before their first matchup against Michigan. This is likely the last time their résumé will be discussed in any capacity.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

The Rutgers rotation hasn't changed since the first preview. Point guard Myles Mack remains the player to watch. He's the only Rutgers player with an offensive rating above 100, which is somewhat astounding. Here's his shot chart in Big Ten play, via Shot Analytics:

While he doesn't exactly light it up from every spot on the floor, he finishes at the rim and has a sweet spot beyond the arc. For comparison, here's the shot chart for every other Rutgers player in conference play:

This is a bad shot chart. Mack is the team's only outside shooting threat—he's the lone Scarlet Knight to hit more than 11 triples in Big Ten play—and the rest of the squad, especially high-usage forward Kadeem Jack, is all too willing to settle for low-percentage midrange shots.

THE TEMPO-FREE

We've got enough of a sample size that these stats are now conference-only. As you might expect, that change isn't so kind to Michigan's offense.

Four Factors explanation

As you probably expected given the shot charts, Rutgers' offense is laughably bad—worst in the conference by over four points per 100 possessions. They're the worst shooting team in the Big Ten, which is actually understating matters, as they're 340th out of 351 D-I basketball programs. They're dead last in turnover rate, and their ball movement is poor, too—11th in assists/FGM. This is a really atrocious offense.

The defense is much better by comparison, a lofty 12th in the conference in efficiency. They have an especially tough time defending inside the arc and don't do any one thing particularly well.

Thanks, Delany.

THE KEYS

Guard the good one. Michigan has exactly one player they need to keep track of at all times, especially beyond the arc, and that is Myles Mack. I wouldn't be surprised to see MAAR get that assignment wire-to-wire unless John Beilein decides the zone will be more effective, which it very well might against a team that can't shoot a lick. Either way, expect Michigan to pay a lot of attention to Mack and sag off everyone else.

Keep attacking. Count me among those who want to see Zak Irvin play every game like he did against Northwestern on Tuesday. If he can find a way to finish a few more of those drives at the rim instead of pulling up around the free-throw line, all the better.

Win The Game. Let's not be the team that gives Rutgers their first win in 14 tries on Senior Day, of all days. Have I mentioned they're bad? Because they're bad.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 10.

Have I mentioned Rutgers is... oh, yes I have. Just making sure.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. According to ZagsBlog, Michigan is taking a look at Seton Hall sophomore Jaren Sina, a former top-100 recruit who will transfer after the season. He'd have to sit out a year, then would have two years of eligibility remaining.