Preview: Northwestern

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Rahk had nine points on seven shots in the first matchup. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE US

Derrick Walton is still expected to sit out, though he did at least travel to Maryland on Saturday.

THE LAST TIME

Thanks to a strong all-around performance by Caris LeVert and a missed layup by Northwestern's Bryant McIntosh on the game's final possession, Michigan escaped with a 56-54 win at Crisler back in mid-January. A solid outing from Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman covered for the absence of a sick Spike Albrecht. The efforts of those two and Derrick Walton—who hit some timely threes—were just enough to overcome a 22-point game from Wildcats center Alex Olah.

On that fateful final play, LeVert came up limping. We'd soon learn he was out for the rest of the season. Michigan, 4-2 in the conference after the win, has gone 3-7 since.

THE STAKES

This is close to a must-win for Michigan if they want to get into the NIT. While a losing record no longer automatically disqualifies a team from making the NIT, no such team has been selected; Michigan would need to beat Rutgers and win the 8/9 game in the Big Ten Tournament just to get back to .500. (I don't believe the NIT counts the victory over Hillsdale, a D-II team.) That wouldn't necessarily guarantee Michigan gets in—they'd probably have to pull a huge upset over Wisconsin in the next round to lock down a spot.

Needless to say, the path to the NIT is a whole lot easier if Michigan wins the remaining two regular season games. At that point, they'd probably only need to win one game in the conference tournament to feel good about their postseason standing.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

Northwestern's loss to Michigan was their fourth defeat in what would become a ten-game losing streak—they didn't win a game between December 30th and February 15th. The Wildcats then ripped off four straight wins, beating Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State (60-39!), and Indiana; three of those came at home. Most recently, they got crushed at Illinois.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

The first Northwestern preview is here. Not much has changed personnel-wise since then.

Freshman point guard Bryant McIntosh and serial chucker Tre Demps comprise the starting backcourt. McIntosh has quietly turned in a strong first year; he's a solid all-around scorer who can run an offense without committing too many rookie mistakes. Demps has found his shot after a rough start to the season. He's still not what you'd call a greatly efficient player, but he's liable to light up the scoreboard at any time.

Freshman wing Scottie Lindsay has started nine of the last 11 games after previously coming off the bench, taking the job from fellow freshman Vic Law. That's mostly a cosmetic change, though; Lindsay still plays a limited, low-usage role, while Law is playing starter-level minutes—he's averaging 12 points over the last four games, going 10/17 beyond the arc in that span.

That platoon is joined on the wing by Sanjay Lumpkin, whose usage rate is a microscopic 9.9% in conference play; he's having a hard time hitting the few shots he's taking of late. We may also see senior JerShon Cobb, who's missed the last six games in what has been an injury-plagued season. If he plays, Cobb gives Northwestern a reliable spot-up shooter to help stretch the floor.

If the first contest was any indication, Michigan's toughest test will be slowing down center Alex Olah, who averages 11.4 points and 6.6 rebounds per game—he easily surpassed those with 22 points (9/12 FG) and seven boards (five offensive) in the previous matchup.

One change to keep an eye on: Northwestern has moved almost exclusively to a 2-3 zone in the last seven games. Per UMHoops, the switch has been somewhat effective:

The switch hasn’t turned Northwestern into a dominant defense – the Wildcats allowed 1.13 points per possession in Big Ten play in their 10 man-to-man games and 1.08 points per possession in the six zone games – but it did result in a four game winning streak for a team that had lost 10 straight games.

Somewhat.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Despite boasting the B1G's second-best two-point defense, Northwestern is last in the conference in defensive efficiency. How does that happen? They're bad at just about everything else, including dead-last marks in 3PA/FGA, three-point percentage, and turnover rate.

The offense has hung around average thanks to solid shooting numbers offsetting ugly marks in the other factors: Northwestern is 11th in turnover rate, 13th in offensive rebound rate, and last in free throw rate. They take the second-most threes in the Big Ten and knock them down at a respectable 36.6% clip.

THE KEYS

Let it fly. Northwestern wasn't good at defending the outside shot before they switched to the 2-3 zone. They got lit up by Illinois on Saturday; the Illini went 14/29 from beyond the arc, finishing the game attempting one more three-pointer than two-pointer. If Michigan is patient and moves the ball around the perimeter, they should find open shots.

Stay out there, Doyle. Ricky Doyle barely played in the first game, limited by the same illness that kept Spike Albrecht out of that contest entirely. Mark Donnal couldn't handle Alex Olah in the post, and Olah's huge size advantage over Max Bielfeldt forced Michigan to spend far too much time in the 1-3-1 when he was pressed into action. To avoid a repeat, it'd be great if Doyle was able to play the majority of the minutes and stay out of foul trouble.

Generate extra possessions. If this ends up a tight game, as projected, Michigan can push themselves over the top by stealing an extra possession here and there. Northwestern is a bad rebounding team on both ends; with the switch to zone, offensive boards should be there for the taking. They also don't force many turnovers, so if M can turn up the pressure, they can gain the type of advantage that often decides a game.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Northwestern by 2.

The Wildcats are a lot healthier than the Wolverines now, and with both teams close to full strength in January they pushed Michigan to the final possession at Crisler. If there's ever a night for Northwestern to have a home-court advantage, one would hope it'd be Senior Night, as well.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Game scores and trends for both Michigan and Northwestern from our own Alex Cook.

John Beilein discusses his autobench strategy, among other things. Caris LeVert will apply for an evaluation from the NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee for the second straight year.