Goal-by-Goal Analysis: Wisconsin

[I hope I get to overuse this screen cap by the time the season ends]

Friday, February 27, 2015

Michigan 3 Wisconsin 0

1st period

No scoring

2nd period

Michigan 1 Wisconsin 0 PPG 01:35 Hyman (19) from Nieves (17) and Werenski (15)

Boo Nieves sets a screen for Zach Werenski, who is skating toward the blue line. Werenski draws a defender high; Nieves stays stationary. Werenski passes to Nieves before the defender can make a play on the puck, and Nieves takes off for the net unscathed.

Nieves makes a simple pass to Zach Hyman.

Hyman is looking to the opposite faceoff circle, but the puck never gets there. It hits the leg of the netfront defenseman and is deflected into the top corner.

You may remember me from such emoticons as ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[After THE JUMP: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ redux]

3rd period

Michigan 2 Wisconsin 0 PPG 07:28 Werenski (8) from Hyman (26) and Larkin (27)

A Wisconsin player has just received a pass from behind the net and is about to clear it when Dylan Larkin picks it off and passes to Werenski.

Werenski moves laterally and puts a behind-the-back pass on Larkin’s stick. Larkin sees that he has open ice in front of him and takes a couple of strides before shooting.

Larkin’s shot is stopped by Rumpel, but there’s a weak rebound to the side of the net. Hyman takes the puck and skates it behind the net. It looks like he wants to center it for Kile but doesn’t get enough on it, and the puck instead rolls back to the top of the faceoff circle.

Werenski steps into a slap shot, and though Rumpel is able to stack his pads he’s a fraction of a second too slow. Hyman, who’s lurking in his favorite area (the side of the net), skates into the crease and hacks Rumpel’s pads a couple of times to make sure the puck is in.

Michigan 3 Wisconsin 0 EN 18:57 Compher (5) unassisted

Wisconsin has pulled Rumpel and is entering the offensive zone. Alex Kile does an excellent job of getting his stick in the passing lane; the puck hits it and arcs through the air.

Andrew Copp is in the right place at the right time, and as the puck lands he swipes at it and knocks it out of the zone.

It’s “Chariots of Fire” time.

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Michigan 5 Wisconsin 2

1st period

Michigan 0 Wisconsin 1 EV 11:42 Wagner from Navin and McGuire

Michigan’s Tyler Motte tries to backhand the puck out of the defensive zone to no avail. The puck bounces off a Wisconsin skater…

…and fortuitously (for them) lands right in front of another Wisconsin skater (Ryan Wagner). He shoots, and Racine makes the stop.

I don’t understand why Racine doesn’t dive on this puck and take the defensive-zone faceoff instead of poke-checking it into the maw of the beast. Of note: I am not a goaltenders coach.

Wagner retrieves the puck from its silver platter, stickhandles a couple of times, and shoots it over Racine, who has a difficult time pushing across after laying out for the poke check.

2nd period

Michigan 1 Wisconsin 1 EV 04:53 Selman (8) from Hyman (27) and Downing (14)

Michigan enters the offensive zone on a 2-on-2 rush. Michael Downing (who was suspended for Friday’s game) badly wants Hyman to set him up for a one-timer, but Hyman decides to skate into the high slot instead.

Kevin Schulze blankets Hyman and knocks the puck off his stick. It then hits another Wisconsin player’s skate and rolls toward the top of the faceoff circle.

The wave of anxiety a goaltender feels when Hyman has the puck recedes, and left behind is a wide-open Justin Selman. He puts it in over Rumpel’s glove.

Hyman makes the mistake of holding the puck too long and it still results in a goal?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Michigan 2 Wisconsin 1 PPG 16:09 Compher (6) from Motte (18) and Copp (13)

Michigan gains control via faceoff and works the puck to the point. De Jong moves it to Copp, who passes to Tyler Motte at the bottom of the faceoff circle. This is a different look, because in Michigan’s usual umbrella formation Motte would be in the slot.

Motte spins and puts a beautiful backhanded pass under the defense and across to Compher.

Compher gets the puck at a bad angle, but with a half-open net he’s still able to put it past Rumpel. There’s no way Rumpel was going to be able to get across and stop Compher’s shot once he locked down the post to take away a backhander from Motte.

Michigan 2 Wisconsin 2 EV 19:31 Besse from Rockwood and LaBate

Downing turns the puck over at the opposite blue line and a 3-on-2 rush develops. Adam Rockwood freezes Werenski with a shot fake that causes him to narrow into a shot blocking stance, at which point Rockwood passes to Grant Besse.

Besse tries to bank the puck in off of Downing.

The puck takes flight over the crossbar, at which point Racine throws his stick and tries to swat at it with his blocker.

Racine swats at the puck like it’s a bee, but it lands on him and is across the line. I guess. There weren’t any replays that I saw that showed anything conclusive.

3rd period

Michigan 3 Wisconsin 2 PPG 08:01 Compher (7) from De Jong (6)

De Jong passes out of his defensive zone to Compher, but the pass is in his skates. Compher kicks it ahead, where it goes off the stick of a Wisconsin defender. Compher reaches back and finally gains possession of the puck. He slows down as he enters the offensive zone to read the defenseman; the trailing player is too close and there’s a stick in the passing lane across, so he decides to skate around the D.

The defenseman takes away the centering pass to Kile (as he should). Compher places a perfect shot in the top corner, and Rumpel is beaten glove-side again.

Michigan 4 Wisconsin 2 EV 12:18 Selman (9) from Larkin (28) and Hyman (28)

Michigan wins a board battle in the neutral zone, with Hyman chipping it ahead. Larkin picks it up and wow that is a lot of Wisconsin skater behind the play.

You can see Jack Dougherty calling out assignments in the above screen cap, but then he just sort of stands there as Larkin to Selman in front of him.

To cap it off, Dougherty backs into Rumpel as Selman shovels the puck past them for a yakety-saxian goal.

Michigan 5 Wisconsin 2 EN 18:41 Compher (8)

Wisconsin starts a break out when someone fans on the pass and oh my god it’s Dougherty.

Unlike Dougherty, Compher’s momentum is carrying him toward the puck. He picks it up and nets his third of the game good for…

…a retro-goalie-mask trick? Okay.

Notes:

• PairWise Watch: Michigan moved up to 15th with this weekend’s sweep. This is nice when looking at the table but matters very little. Michigan has four games left; a road series against reeling Penn State (they were swept by OSU last weekend) and a home-and-home with MSU. Brian’s said it before and I’ll reiterate: sweep or die.
• So about that Tournament bid: Our ol’ pal Yost Built linked to Playoff Status, a site that has participation probabilities. Michigan’s outlook is…meh. It could be worse, I guess. If Michigan wins out but misses the B1G Tournament final they have a 89% chance of getting an NCAA Tournament bid. Their overall probability of making the Tournament is 41%. FWIW, the site says this comes from win/loss probabilities based on relative team strengths, but I don’t see anywhere that defines how they calculate relative team strengths. Playoff Status also gives Michigan a 61% chance to win the Big Ten.
• Wolverine in Exile is more optimistic than I am; go read this diary.
• Do you like watching things on a Jumbotron? If so, this weekend is going to excite you. Michigan’s series with Penn State is streaming via BTN Plus; the last time a Michigan game was on BTN Plus I’m pretty sure they used OSU’s in-arena feed. The best evidence I can find for this theory? You can’t make this stuff up:
• Thoughts on the Wisconsin series: It’s very clear that Michigan is a team that has preternaturally talented scorers who, more often than not, make the most of their skill; the team also makes far too many defensive mistakes. These two things have been constants. The goaltending has been mediocre (especially over the past month), but Steve Racine had a great weekend. He recorded his first career shutout on Friday and was equally as sharp Saturday. Two games is too small a sample size to say that Michigan’s goaltending ills are cured, but Racine performed as he should against an offense ranked 56th (out of 59 teams) in the nation. Michigan gave up 50 shots in the series, so it’s not as if Racine wasn’t tested. I’d be shocked if he didn’t get the start against Penn State on Friday.