Preview: Maryland

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Testudo, circa 1942. Yes, that's intended to look like a turtle.

THE US

Once again, it doesn't look like Derrick Walton will be available. John Beilein said today that Walton underwent X-rays (negative) earlier this week, then tried to return to basketball activities on Thursday, but didn't complete the workout.

THE STAKES

Despite the win over Ohio State, Michigan is still on the NIT bubble. They're projected as a six-seed on threeNITbracketology sites. In all likelihood, the Wolverines are going to need to win two of their last three regular season games (securing a winning record) and perhaps one more in the BTT to secure a bid. Remember, that NIT bubble shrinks every time there's a surprise conference tournament winner that wouldn't otherwise make the NCAAs.

As Drew Hallett points out, there's another seeding watch: BTT seeding, which could become very important if Michigan loses two of their last three. If the season ended right now, Michigan would be the nine-seed, playing #8 Illinois in the second round for the right to face top-seeded Wisconsin in the quarterfinals. That scenario is far from ideal, of course, but Michigan likely has to win out and get help to rise to the #7 seed and avoid the Badgers.

Winning this game would have a small chance of helping out Michigan's BTT seeding; more importantly, it would clear a major hurdle towards securing an NIT bid.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

Maryland has only lost one home game all season—to #2 Virginia, way back in early December. On Tuesday, they successfully defended their turf against Wisconsin, pulling off a 59-53 upset.

No, this won't be easy.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Maryland's attack is highlighted by a couple of attacking guards. Melo Trimble has been one of the most impressive freshman in the conference. A proficient outside shooter, Trimble gets most of his production attacking the basket—his free throw rate is over 72%, and he hits 87% of his freebies. Dez Wells, the team's lead guard, is a more selective—and more efficient—three-point shooter who also gets to the line frequently. Both are solid, not spectacular, at distributing the ball without turning it over.

Richaud Pack regained his starting role this month after briefly losing it to Jared Nickens. Like Trimble and Wells, Pack gets to the line often; unlike those two, he doesn't do much else to get the offense going, shooting 33% on both twos and threes in Big Ten play. Nickens, who rotates into the lineup frequently, is almost exclusively a three-point shooter—he hits 40% of his attempts from beyond the arc.

Stretch four Jake Layman is the third option, and a quality one at that. As you can see, he's an effective scorer from pretty much anywhere:

Layman is also a very good defensive rebounder and decent shot-blocker. He'll see a good number of his minutes at center, where Damonte Dodd—a more traditional five—starts but plays reserve-level minutes.

The team's most-utilized reserve is a familiar face: Evan Smotrycz, the former Wolverine. His game hasn't changed much, and he's really struggling from the field this season—he's shot 38% from two and 26% from three in B1G play.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

It's easy to see where the battle will be when Maryland has the ball. They're not good at much except getting to the line, which they do really well; meanwhile, John Beilein teams are notoriously foul-averse, and this one is no different.

On the other end, the Terps defend the boards well and keep opponents off the line; otherwise, they're pretty average across the board.

THE KEYS

Zone 'em. Maryland gets to the hoop a lot, draws a ton of fouls, and prefers transition defense to crashing the boards. Playing zone is probably Michigan's best bet to keep Trimble and Wells from having big days. They just have to keep track of the shooters—Wells, Layman, and Nickens when he's out there—when doing so; Trimble and Wells are both adept at driving-and-kicking.

Alternatively, Rahk. OR, Michigan could try to lock down Trimble with Adbur-Rahkman, who did impressive work man-up against D'Angelo Russell last weekend. The worry here: with Rahk expending so much energy on defense, he had a down game offensively against Ohio State.

Irvin in attack mode. Maryland will often put three forwards out there—usually some combination of Nickens, Layman, Smotrycz, and Dodd—which should mean Zak Irvin will be matchup up against a defender he has an athletic mismatch against. It'd be really encouraging as we near the end of the season if Irvin looked willing and able to take bigger, slower defenders off the dribble and finish at the basket; he's been getting better at this of late.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Maryland by 8.

I mean, they just beat Wisconsin, and Michigan... isn't Wisconsin, especially on the road.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Testudo Times preview. Really enjoyable feature on the coaching aspirations of Andrew Dakich from the Daily's Lev Facher:

Everybody was on board except for Dakich’s son, Andrew. He told his father the obvious — they needed just two points to tie, not three.

The elder Dakich, now a college basketball analyst at ESPN, recalled the ensuing interaction like it was yesterday: “Every single guy in the huddle turned and said, ‘Andrew, shut the hell up!’ ”

Sounds about right.