THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT |
Michigan (13-13, 6-8 B1G) vs Ohio State (19-7, 8-5) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| WHEN | 1 pm ET, Sunday |
| LINE | Ohio State -6 (KenPom) |
| TV |
CBS PBP: Kevin Harlan Analyst: Bill Raftery |
THE FUTURE
Before diving into the preview, let's take a look at next year's Big Ten schedule breakdown, which was released by the conference today:
Michigan Men's Basketball 2016 Big Ten Opponents
Home/Away: Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue
Home: Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern, Rutgers
Away: Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin
On the plus side, it's a relatively favorable schedule. Michigan's toughest home-and-home is, uh, Iowa? Maryland? While the road-only slate is rough, that's a schedule set up for making a run.
From a fan's perspective, however, it sucks that we won't see Ohio State or Nebraska in Crisler next year; ditto trips to the Breslin Center or Assembly Hall.
THE STAKES
At this point, it's NIT bubble watch time. DRatings dropped Michigan from a two-seed to a four-seed in their latest update. The Bracket Matrix had the Wolverines as a six-seed before the loss to MSU. A loss to the Buckeyes won't bump Michigan from NIT contention, but a victory would make the stretch run a lot less daunting.
THE LAST TIME
Ohio State wallopped Michigan, 71-52, in Columbus. The Wolverines couldn't slow down freshman phenom D'Angelo Russell, who tallied 21 points and six assists, and they only managed 0.83 PPP even with LeVert and Walton in the lineup.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 3 | Shannon Scott | Sr. | 6'1, 185 | 79 | 20 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Great defender, facilitates offense well, still not much of a shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 0 | D'Angelo Russell | Fr. | 6'5, 180 | 90 | 29 | No | ||||||||||||
| Volume scorer. Great outside shooter, even off dribble. Solid passer, too. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 12 | Sam Thompson | Sr. | 6'7, 200 | 88 | 18 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Ridiculous hops. Very good finisher. Not a good shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 1 | Jae'Sean Tate | Fr. | 6'4, 190 | 59 | 21 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Excellent on the boards, good finisher, active defender. Turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 23 | Amir Williams | Sr. | 6'11, 250 | 43 | 15 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Effective finisher, good rebounder, blocks lots of shots. Turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 2 | Marc Loving | So. | 6'7, 215 | 51 | 19 | No | ||||||||||||
| Losing role/PT to Tate, but still shooting above 50% from three. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 15 | Kam Williams | Fr. | 6'2, 175 | 32 | 13 | No | ||||||||||||
| Efficient scorer sticks mostly to spot-up threes. | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 55 | Trey McDonald | Sr. | 6'8, 240 | 23 | 15 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Very good rebounder, especially on offense. Decent rim protector. | |||||||||||||||||||
THE RESUME
While the Buckeyes have only won twice on the road—against Northwestern and Rutgers—since they last faced Michigan, they haven't been an easy out away from home; losses at Purdue and MSU came by a combined five points. They've easily handled all challengers at home since their Big Ten opener against Iowa. At 8-5, they're at the back of the group pushing for second place behind Wisconsin.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
The preview from the first matchup is here. Little has changed since then. D'Angelo Russell continues to push his way up draft boards—as high as #2 behind Jahlil Okafor—with his exceptional scoring ability and impressive passing. He's joined in the backcourt by Shannon Scott, a great defender and solid passer who's not much of a scorer.
Sam Thompson is sure to punctuate an Ohio State run with a Sportscenter-worthy dunk; he's also strong on the defensive end of the court. Freshman Jae'Sean Tate has emerged as a Novak-sized power forward who's much better suited to the position; he's a ball of energy who's tough to stop around the rim. Tate replaced Marc Loving, who recently served a three-game suspension for undisclosed reasons, in the starting lineup.
Amir Williams remains a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in the body of an NBA center. His numbers look decent on paper, he drives Buckeye fans nuts with his turnovers and lapses in concentration, and he plays less than you'd expect for a player with his size and talent. Trey McDonald is an uninspiring but passable backup center, while Anthony Lee—who briefly replaced Williams as a starter—has missed the last couple games with a groin injury.
When games have been close, especially of late, Thad Matta has gone with a very short bench, giving almost all of the available minutes to his starters.
THE TEMPO-FREE
To demonstrate OSU's consistency, I'm just gonna edit the last preview:
The Buckeyes boast the #21 #22 offense in the country due in large part to some impressive shooting numbers: they're seventh eighth in two-point percentage and 32nd 39th from beyond the arc, though their outside shooting has gone cold during Big Ten play. They take care of the ball and crash the boards pretty well; if there's a weakness, it's that they don't get to the line very often.
OSU's defense forces the seventh-most 16th-most turnovers in the country—which helps fuel a solid transition game—and they block a ton of shots. They've shored up their two-point defense significantly over the course of the Big Ten season, but they remain weak on the glass, allowing the third-highest OR% in the conference.
THE KEYS
Pray zone works. Michigan is coming off an awful defensive performance against MSU that knocked their defensive efficiency down to 11th in the B1G; most alarming about that game, each of M's three defenses—man, 2-3, and 1-3-1—failed to slow the Spartans. I'm not optimistic M can go man-up on Russell and slow him down. Collapsing on him with the zone—one that'll have to extend to make sure Russell doesn't have room to shoot threes—is probably M's best bet, albeit one that leaves them susceptible to Slam Thompson lobs and Tate/Williams putbacks. Pick your poison.
Protect the rock. Even after their switch to man-to-man, Ohio State has been very proficient in forcing turnovers, and they're a really good transition team when they do so. Michigan has to be careful with the ball and at the very least avoid live-ball turnovers that OSU can turn into instant offense. Going up strong around the hoop will be key—the block-steal combination has led to more than one highlight-worthy Sam Thompson fast break throwdown this season.
Take charge, somebody. The search for a go-to guy continues, and if Michigan doesn't get somebody to step up in a big way, it's tough to see them keeping pace with OSU. Zak Irvin has slowly added to his arsenal, and while his progress hasn't been as rapid as most hoped, it's progress nonetheless; if he can build on that, or MAAR can capture whatever causes him to go off in every game against MSU, M has some hope of pulling the upset.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Ohio State by 6.
Losing the ability to guard anyone just before facing the best perimeter scorer in the conference doesn't bode well, I'll say that much.
ELSEWHERE
UMHoops preview. John U. Bacon on John Beilein and how the best coaches do some of their finest work with their worst teams:
Bo Schembechler always said the best coaching job he’d ever seen was from Ara Parseghian, at Northwestern, in 1957. Were the Wildcats national champs? No. Big Ten champs? No. Northwestern that season lost every single game.
This has been a nightmare season for reasons largely out of Beilein's control, but I really hope that hasn't led people to think Beilein isn't still a great coach.