Preview: Michigan State

THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

While there's still hope that Derrick Walton will return before the season ends, he won't be back in uniform tonight. 

THE STAKES

Losing four in a row has put Michigan in danger of missing the NIT. The Bracket Matrix listed M as a six-seed when they updated at the end of last week; DRatings put them as the last three-seed; Big Apple Buckets placed them as a five-seed before the Illinois loss.

While Michigan finishes with two very winnable games (at Northwestern, Rutgers), they probably need to pull an upset in one of these next three much more difficult games (MSU, OSU, at Maryland) to feel comfortable with their postseason chances heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

As for pride, Michigan hasn't lost to State at Crisler since 2010, when the Spartans got away with murder on the would-be game-winning lob to Deshawn Sims.

THE LAST TIME

Led by Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Michigan almost pulled off a shocker in the Breslin Center, surging in the second half before going scoreless in overtime. The Wolverines haven't won since.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

Since the last meeting, MSU dropped a home game against Illinois, blew out Northwestern on the road, and most recently staved off Ohio State at the Breslin Center on a game-winner by Denzel Valentine. The Spartans are currently on the right side of the NCAA bubble. Michigan can play spoiler.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Very little has changed since the last preview. Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine get the offense going, and Michigan can't give either room on the perimeter, especially on the break. Branden Dawson is a rebounding machine. Bryn Forbes is a pure gunner. Gavin Schilling and Matt Costello provide a solid, if unspectacular, big man duo.

Interestingly, MSU's game notes list Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn as the starter at the point over Trice. That's been the case the last two games—though Trice is still playing starter-level minutes—and Nairn rewarded Tom Izzo's trust with an efficient outing against Ohio State: seven points on three shots, five rebounds, and four assists against just two turnovers. Nairn had a rough outing in the first matchup, but he's obviously been more effective of late.

Javon Bess, who was limited to ten unproductive minutes in the first MSU game, is out indefinitely with a foot injury. (Yes, that sounds familiar.) That means sophomore Alvin Ellis will get a few more minutes at guard off the bench. Ellis didn't play in the first game and he's struggled mightily this season, posting identical 3/15 marks both inside and outside the arc while turning the ball over on 25% of his possessions. Marvin Clark, a 6'6" freshman wing who's seen sporadic minutes in conference play, could also play a small role.

THE TEMPO-FREE

We've got enough of a sample size that these stats are now conference-only.

Four Factors explanation

The Spartan defense is both imposing and, on paper, not a good matchup for Michigan. They're first in the conference in defensive efficiency, defensive rebounding rate, opponent 3P%, and block rate, and they're third in 2P% against. MAAR managed to get to the hoop and finish against MSU the first time around; minus the surprise factor, that will be tough to manage tonight.

The MSU offense is great on the glass and dangerous from beyond the arc. They turn the ball over more than is ideal, and free throw shooting is their Achilles heel—they're last in the B1G at 61.2%.

THE KEYS

Scrap the zone. As Dylan notes, MSU lit up Michigan's zone defense at Breslin, scoring on 11 of 16 possessions. Going man-to-man puts a lot of pressure on Aubrey Dawkins and Zak Irvin, who'll have to shut down the versatile Denzel Valentine and contend with Branden Dawson on the boards, respectively. Against a team that passes the ball as well as State does, however, that's the better option than allowing a parade of layups and corner threes.

Adjust to the adjustment. Since that first MSU game, opponents have slowed down MAAR by collapsing on him when he drives to the hoop, forcing him to give up the rock in uncomfortable positions; previously, he'd almost always gone to the rim, but as of late he's wasted many of his possessions coughing up the ball. Michigan is still going to rely on MAAR to create offense; it's time for him to start anticipating pressure and be better at identifying where his shooters are going to be when he forays into the paint.

Do something, actual bigs. Michigan got a surprisingly solid performance out of Max Bielfeldt in the first game, and there's something to the idea of putting him out there against Dawson, which Beilein did pretty much out of necessity the first time around. M's gotta get more of the center-sized centers, though: Doyle got just three points and a rebound in 15 minutes, while Donnal—still sick at the time—logged a DNP. MSU rebounded 37% of their misses in the first game; if they repeat that performance, it's going to be hard for Michigan to keep it as close in the second.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan State by 2.

After the game in Breslin, it's impossible to rule anything out. That said, these teams are moving in opposite directions, and at this point State has a lot left to play for, as well.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. The Only Colors preview.

Caris LeVert is projected 29th in Chad Ford's latest mock draft, with Ford noting he'd be "5 to 10 spots higher" if not for the injury ($).

Austin Hatch will receive the USBWA's Most Courageous Award for 2015, which is presented during Final Four weekend.