Preview: Illinois

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: The last time out, Illinois learned they should probably guard Aubrey Dawkins. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE US

While Derrick Walton won't be in uniform tonight, there's hope he'll get back out there before the season is out:

"We fully expect to have him back," Beilein said. "We just don't know (when). When he can run pain-free, he's going to get back out there. Now obviously there's some rehab involved to just get his cardio back up. He can't do that yet. But when he can, two or three days later we'll put him in a game."

Beilein added that "he's been getting better every day, but certainly not ready yet." Unless he makes a very quick turnaround, it seems like the earliest he'd be available would be for the Feb. 22 game against Ohio State.

THE LAST TIME

Michigan took on Illinois at Crisler in the Big Ten opener, a game that feels like it took place decades ago. A torrent of threes from Aubrey Dawkins and a surprise changeup to the 2-3 zone led to a comeback, overtime victory on the day Jim Harbaugh was introduced as head coach.

THE STAKES

The Wolverines need a most unlikely run to have a shot at the NCAA tournament; they'd most likely need to win five of their last six regular season games and take at least one in the B1G tourney to earn an at-large bid. Maize n Brew's Drew Hallett took a look the odds using KenPom:

NIT eligibility is based on the assumption Michigan would need to finish with a winning record to make it—no team with a losing record has qualified even after the NIT eliminated that as a set-in-stone requirement. Per KenPom, this is the second-toughest game remaining on the schedule, so a win tonight would swing those odds more in Michigan's favor.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

*Rice and Cosby have been serving an indefinite suspension and it's unclear when they'll return. Both have been practicing with the team. Recent reports say Rice is expected to play while Cosby is not.

THE RESUME

Illinois got off to a rocky 2-4 start in Big Ten play, hampered by a road-heavy schedule and Rayvonte Rice suffering a broken hand that's sidelined him since early January. The Illini have bounced back with wins in four of their last five, including Saturday's upset in East Lansing.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Since the Illini have received the preview treatment once before this season, I'll focus on what has changed since the first matchup. Much like Michigan, the Illini have been without a couple of key contributors: Rayvonte Rice and Aaron Cosby, both of whom went from injury to indefinite suspension. Rice was easily the bigger loss; he'd really improved his efficiency this season.

Because of course this would happen, Rice appears to be coming back tonight:

Source tells me Ray Rice will play for #Illini tonight vs. Michigan but Aaron Cosby will not. That would be interesting. We'll see. #dechr

— Mark Tupper (@MarkTupper) February 12, 2015

Rice has shot a lights-out 53/48/80 (2P/3P/FT%) this season, and he's also the team's most efficient distributor. Getting him back changes the outlook of this game significantly.

The absence of Rice has allowed Malcolm Hill to blossom, as well. In his last five games, the sophomore has scored 18, 18, 27, 15, and 19 points; he's averaging 17 points and five boards in Big Ten play while shooting 42% from three. Hill's ability to create his own shot is impressive, and he's effective from just about everywhere on the floor:

Kendrick Nunn is the other dangerman, averaging over 14 points and knocking down 40% of his threes in B1G play. He's not as dynamic as Hill but he's a catch-and-shoot threat.

John Groce changed point guards since the first matchup, replacing senior Ahmad Starks with sophomore Jaylon Tate. While both have had a lot of trouble with their shot, Tate gets to the line far more frequently (and hits 86% of his FTs) and is a more efficient distributor. Starks provides more of an outside shooting threat, but that hasn't been enough to overcome his turnover issues and 5'9" stature.

Leron Black provides excellent rebounding on both ends, making up for the fact that Nnanna Egwu still isn't nearly as good on the defensive glass as one would expect for a senior seven-footer. Egwu remains a solid shot-blocker with an occasionally threatening post game; he's also capable of stepping out and knocking down jumpers. Maverick Morgan, Egwu's backup, has really struggled in conference play.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only numbers:

Four factors explanation

The Illini defense has fallen off since the first matchup. They're allowing a lot of quality looks from the outside and opponents are taking advantage; they've also been surprisingly sub-par defending inside the arc.

Their offense has been pretty bad, especially on two-pointers—their 41.8% mark is 13th in the conference. While decent three-point shooting covers for some of that, the Illini don't get many second chances at all, and they also don't work their way to the line often.

THE KEYS

2-3 again? The switch worked really well in the first matchup, though the surprise factor definitely played a part. The key to this game will be limiting Malcolm Hill, who has a great midrange game, and the zone could help keep him from getting to his favorite spots on the floor.

Drive and kick. Michigan should be able to generate open looks against this defense. While Caris LeVert and his five assists from the game at Crisler will be on the bench, Spike Albrecht also dished out five; Illinois had trouble keeping him from weaving his way towards the lane before kicking it to an open shooter. It'd be nice to see MAAR start to add some of this to his game, as well; so far, he's mostly looked for his own shot when heading to the rim.

Account for the wings. The big men will have their hands full keeping Nnanna Egwu off the offensive boards, and they did a good job limiting him to just one offensive rebound in the first game. Malcolm Hill pulled in three, Rice two, and Leron Black—who's posted a 12.2 OR% in B1G games—may see an expanded role, however. Aubrey Dawkins and Zak Irvin will have to be responsible and active on the defensive boards.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Illinois by 5.

Let's hope Rice is rusty, because on paper his return really hurts Michigan's outlook in this one, and that outlook wasn't particularly good to begin with.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Preview from the other side by The Champaign Room. NIT bracketology currently has Michigan as the last #2 seed.