Preview: Iowa

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Last year was fun, unless you were Roy Devyn Marble. [Fuller]

THE US

Derrick Walton is out for a while, which Dylan points out robs Michigan of their best individual defender by Synergy's numbers. (Aubrey Dawkins grades out slightly better, but in a much smaller sample size.)

The dropoff is particularly large between Walton (93rd percentile in points per possession against) and Spike Albrecht (16th); expect Michigan to continue utilizing a liberal dosage of zone defense to compensate.

THE STAKES

At this point, all home games are must-wins for those still holding out hope for an NCAA bid.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

The Hawkeyes have had an up-and-down year, and they're currently in a down period after blowouts at the hands on Wisconsin's unstoppable offense sandwiched a narrow loss at Purdue. Iowa boasts a road win over UNC and a season sweep against Ohio State; they've otherwise struggled against quality competition.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Iowa is led by forward Aaron White, whose unorthodox game is predicated on slashing to the bucket and either finishing or drawing fouls—often the latter, as he boasts a high sky-high 88.6 free throw rate (10th nationally) and hits 81% of his freebies. While he's not afraid to hoist shots from outside the paint, his jumper comes and goes, and he's never been much of a three-point shooter.

Fellow forward Jarrod Uthoff is the other significant offensive threat despite a significant dropoff in his shooting percentages from last year, when he saw major minutes off the bench. He's still a solid outside shooter in addition to being a skilled passer and solid rebounder.

The two Iowa centers, Adam Woodbury and Gabriel Olaseni, have very different styles. While Woodbury hasn't lived up to the big-time recruiting hype, he's strong on the boards and needles the opposition with extracurricular shenanigans—some cheeky, some cruel. Olaseni is bit smaller but a much better athlete; he's a beast on the offensive boards and provides more of a shot-blocking presence, and he's also more liable to run the floor and finish a fast break.

Mike Gesell has improved his ability to finish inside the arc, but he remains an inconsistent outside shooter who turns the ball over too much for a veteran point guard. Backup Anthony Clemmons has a much lower usage rate, but turns the ball over at a similar rate with fewer assists to offset them.

Lanky off-guard Peter Jok ascended to the starting lineup in place of Clemmons just before conference play. He provides more length and defense, and he takes care of the ball, but his scoring has a long way to go—he's shooting 33% from both inside and outside the arc.

Spot-up shooter Josh Oglesby was a very effective outside gunner last season, but Hawkeye fans haven't had nearly as many opportunities to tweet "OGLES3" even though he's playing close to starter's minutes: he's just 18/66 beyond the arc this season to go along with an abhorrent 7/25 mark from two.

THE TEMPO-FREE

We've got enough of a sample size that these stats are now conference-only.

Four Factors explanation

Woof, Iowa's defense. Their conference-worst efficiency is skewed somewhat by getting obliterated by Wisconsin (1.52 PPP in their first meeting, 1.30 in the second), but Alex's adjusted game scores metric—explanation here—shows that their defense has been below average in 75% of their conference games, always lagging behind the offense:

Aside from having Ohio State's number, Iowa's defense has been downright bad—13th in the Big Ten by the game scores method.

The offense is fourth in the conference in efficiency and second by Alex's metric—Iowa's played a relatively tough Big Ten slate—in large part because they get to the free throw line at a ridiculous rate; that'll happen when Aaron White is your go-to scorer. They're also first in the conference in offensive rebounding. Those two factors make up for some ugly shooting numbers: ninth in two-point percentage (48.2%) and tenth from beyond the arc (33.9%) in Big Ten play.

THE KEYS

Make White work for it. Michigan needs to find a way to limit Aaron White's dribble penetration; he makes his living at the rim and the line, and it's tough to avoid fouling him if he works his way to the basket. The easy answer for this is to say Michigan should play a lot of zone, but...

Protect the boards. ...it's not easy to run a 2-3 and keep Iowa's active front line from dominating the glass. How Michigan strikes a balance between these two factors will be the key to the game. They're going to need big performances on the glass from not just the centers, but also Zak Irvin and Aubrey Dawkins.

Roll with Rahk. Until MAAR proves he's not the answer to Michigan's offensive woes, I think it's time to make him the focal point of the offense. While he's mostly gone for the hoop when he's driven into the lane—something he does better than anyone else on the team right now—his ability to work his way inside should start opening up opportunities on the perimeter. Michigan's offense stagnated with him on the bench in the first half against MSU, and when they went away from him in the overtime period, they got shut out; it's time for the offense to run through Rahk.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 2.

Iowa's defense is a welcome sight for a Michigan team still struggling to consistently put the ball in the basket.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Dylan takes a deep dive into the emergence of MAAR. His bracket watch shows Michigan has their work cut out for them. The Daily's Max Bultman with a fun feature on former walk-on Cole McConnell, who left the basketball team after last season to focus on studying in the Ross School of Business:

There is, though, a little bit of unfinished business. Asked who would win in a 3-point contest between he and sophomore forward Zak Irvin, McConnell said he wants to show that you don’t need to be a Division-I basketball star to beat a Division-I basketball star.

“I would win,” McConnell said. “Does he know I won the Tri-Delt 3-on-3 intramural championship? I would love to challenge him in a 3-point contest. His excuse is gonna be ‘I gotta focus on the team, and I don’t have time.’ But we all know there’s time. There’s time to get a couple shots up.”

"Does he know I won the Tri-Delt 3-on-3 intramural championship?" is an all-time classic line.