Preview: Michigan State

THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

This is ominous:

Beilein: Walton is limited in what he can do. Questionable for tomorrow.

— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) January 31, 2015

This is more ominous:

Beilein was asked if there's any concern he may have to sit Derrick Walton Jr for "an extended period of time." Beilein: "That's an option."

— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) January 31, 2015

If that's on the table, it doesn't sound like Walton will play; even if he does, he'll still be quite limited. At this stage, it might be best to shut him down for a while.

THE STAKES

This isn't a must-win for Michigan's tournament hopes, but a victory would help their prospects quite a bit. KenPom currently projects M to finish with a 10-8 conference record, and they'll need that to be at least 11-7 to have a good shot of grabbing a bid, in all likelihood. Of the remaining games on the schedule, this is the one KenPom least likes M to win—his numbers give a 17% chance at victory. Pulling this off would change the outlook dramatically.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

While MSU has come close to a marquee win a few times—a five-point loss against #12 Kansas, overtime losses to #13 Notre Dame and #34 Maryland—they've yet to beat a team ranked higher than #44 Iowa on KenPom. With the exception of losses against Texas Southern and Nebraska, they've beaten the teams they should and lost to the teams you'd expect.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Like Michigan, the Spartans lost a great deal since last year: Adreian Payne, Gary Harris, and Keith Appling were all big-time players who are now gone, and losing stretch four Kenny Kaminski hurt, too.

That means much of the scoring load has fallen on Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine, tertiary options last year who've been thrust into leading roles. Trice has gone from a guy who was often asked to be a spot-up shooter to the main ballhandler—something he's done quite well—and leading scorer. He's a dangerous outside shooter who's still not much of a threat inside the arc.

Valentine remains a solid all-around player—he's second on the team in points, rebounds, and assists per game—and he's upped his efficiency thanks to improved shooting across the board. His turnover rate remains above 20%, though; he'll make a couple decisions per game that bring Izzo ever closer to a rage-aneurysm.

Transfer Bryn Forbes has regained the starting two-guard spot after briefly losing it to freshman Javon Bess. After Forbes got off to a slow start, he's become to spot-up gunner MSU was hoping for when he came in from Cleveland State—he's hitting 47% of his threes on the season and has knocked down over half his attempts in conference play. While he doesn't do much else, he has to be accounted for at all times. Bess is a better rebounder and defender, though not much of a scorer, and he started three straight games before a sprained ankle in practice limited him to just nine minutes in State's most recent game.

Branden Dawson is Branden Dawson: a hellacious force on the boards, an excellent defender, and a guy who's usually going to end up scoring double figures on shots that rarely originate outside the paint. His efficiency has taken a hit as State has relied on him more offensively, but he'll be a really tough matchup for Michigan's wings.

Gavin Schilling and Matt Costello split minutes at the five evenly, and they bring pretty much the same skill-set to the lineup. Both are solid finishers around the basket who post good rebounding and block rates. Schilling remains foul-prone but not to the outrageous degree he was last season as a freshman.

The other rotation player of note is point guard Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn, a diminutive, low-usage freshman who's a decent passer but not much of a scoring threat at all.

THE TEMPO-FREE

We've got enough of a sample size that these stats are now conference-only.

Four Factors explanation

This is definitely an Izzo team. The defense, ranked first in the conference, dominates the paint and gives up very few second-chance opportunities. They also a foul a lot, but make up for it by giving up few good looks from inside or out.

The MSU offense is great on the glass and otherwise pretty average. They haven't shot the ball very well in conference play, and they're coughing up the rock more than is ideal, but they've largely made up for that with their work on the boards.

THE KEYS

Limit Dawson. Dawson missed both regular-season losses against Michigan last season, then went off in MSU's Big Ten tourney blowout, and GRIII was a much better matchup for Dawson than Zak Irvin. While Irvin's been better on the boards of late, he'll have to turn in one of the best performances of his career to limit Dawson's output.

Risk the zone? John Beilein will have a tough choice as to what to do defensively. Playing man could expose the team's weaknesses up front, but Trice and Forbes will be accounted for on the perimeter. Playing zone could get Michigan off and running against a State squad prone to turnovers—which could be huge given their defense's stingy nature—but it could pose problems against MSU's outside shooters and rebounders.

Attack the basket. There's going to be a lot of pressure on MAAR to create offense with Walton likely out. MAAR's looked good recently, showing off both the ability to get to the rim and finish once he gets there. That could be exactly what M needs against MSU, which doesn't give up many outside shots but hacks quite a bit when opponents get into the paint. To keep up with State, Michigan is likely going to need to get to the line a lot more than they usually do.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan State by 8.

Going into Breslin without Walton (or with a very limited Walton) is a scary proposition, and MSU's rebounding could be very tough to handle for M's front line.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. MnB's Drew Hallett on the four-year anniversary of the Aneurysm of Leadership/Stu Douglass dagger game in Breslin:

All of this success for Michigan, which the program hadn't experienced for two decades, can be traced back to that Douglass three-pointer. Sure, a claim can be made Michigan would have made it here once Burke arrived even if Douglass missed that shot and the Spartans won on the final possession. But that'd be vastly underestimating the effect that win had on that locker room and the impressionable culture of Michigan basketball.

MLive's Brendan Quinn on Max Bielfeldt's uncertain future—John Beilein may be considering the possibility of bringing Moose back for his final year of eligibility:

"I think we'll stay with where we are right now," Beilein said of the original option for Bielfeldt to depart as a graduate transfer. "He's going to have all kinds of decisions probably at the end of the year on different things, but I think that's the best plan going forward. He should be playing right now, so if he does want to play a fifth year, he would be very highly recruited. Whether it's (by) me or someone else, that's the puzzle we've got to put together."

That decision may depend on whether Michigan can add a big man to their currently empty 2015 class.