Another game, another backbreaking loss. (Source)

Your Weekly B1G Hoops Column

Since the B1G typically doesn’t have conference games on Mondays, might as well move this column to Tuesdays for good.

Table of Contents

1. Week IV Results
2. Post-Week IV Standings
3. Team of the Week: Wisconsin
4. Player of the Week: D’Angelo Russell
5. Efficiency Scatterplot From Conference Games
6. Team-By-Team Rundown
7. Evaluating Consistency
8. Michigan’s Week That Was
9. Michigan’s Week Ahead
10. Week V Schedule

1. Week IV Results

Poor Damn Northwestern.

After jumping out to a 21-10 lead at home against Ohio State, they let the Buckeyes take control of the game – Northwestern was able to tie the game with about four minutes left, but D’Angelo Russell was too much to contain and they eventually lost by two. They led for almost the entire contest against Maryland on the road and squandered an 11-point lead with less than four minutes left in the game. This was the final sequence:

The final sequence of Northwestern' s crushing loss at Maryland. https://t.co/8qNDeRSxnO

— Drew Hallett (@DrewCHallett) January 26, 2015

The loss to Ohio State was brutal; the loss to Maryland was absolutely soul-crushing. Northwestern needs an exorcism or something.

Elsewhere – Wisconsin absolutely murdered Iowa, Indiana beat Maryland at home only to turn around and lose to Ohio State on the road; Wisconsin came away with a tough OT win against Michigan; Nebraska held serve at home with two narrow wins over Minnesota and Michigan State.

2. Post-Week IV Standings

Wisconsin’s still the class of the conference (as evidenced by their excellent efficiency margin), but they haven’t managed to distance themselves after four weeks of conference play because of the unfathomable loss to Rutgers.

Maryland and Indiana are the two lurkers – Indiana’s excellent offense is offset by their permissive defense; Maryland is the inverse. Wisconsin only plays each team once: Maryland on the road, Indiana at home. Whether either are legitimate challengers is certainly up for debate (I personally think Wisconsin’s still the overwhelming favorite), but the conference race has been more entertaining than it was supposed to be, at least.

Ohio State and Michigan State have the best efficiency margins behind Wisconsin – and they’re quite a ways behind the Badgers – though both have already gotten three losses in conference play (along with four other teams at either 5-3 or 4-3 overall). With Wisconsin’s likely dominance (they’re projected to get to 15 conference wins by Ken Pomeroy’s algorithm), those two might be out of the race already.

The race for second place should be a dogfight, and there’s little clarity there, as seven teams are within a game and a half of Maryland. All of them – except for Michigan – have an efficiency margin at or above even; none have an efficiency margin better than +0.07.

3. Team of the Week: Wisconsin

This picture is incredible. (Source)

Wisconsin’s offense is nothing short of amazing. Even without senior point guard Traevon Jackson, the Badgers are a ruthless, efficient machine. Bronson Koenig has aptly stepped into the starting role running the show; Frank Kaminsky is perhaps exceeding the lofty expectations that accompanied him into the season; Sam Dekker is showing off his NBA potential (and efficiently, at that); Nigel Hayes, Josh Gasser, and the rest of the Badgers are all playing well.

Here are the most efficient players in the Big Ten during conference play:

Hayes is the most efficient player in the Big Ten with a significant usage – Aaron White, Yogi Ferrell, Rayvonte Rice follow him – and Kaminsky and Dekker are fifth and sixth respectively. Overall, having 5 players in the top 13 is just absurd, and Wisconsin’s methodical offense is as surgical as ever.

Their win over Iowa – a Top 25 contest, nationally televised on ESPN – was a complete ass-whupping; Wisconsin scored an unbelievable 1.52 points per possession, and, if not for their customarily slow pace, it could have been an even worse blowout. It had the fingerprints of classic Wisconsin basketball (turnover avoidance on offense, foul avoidance on defense – which really hurt Iowa), but it’s hard to remember a time that they played a better game than this against fairly quality competition.

The Badgers averted an upset in Ann Arbor – the game was incredibly slow (which benefits the underdog), but after Wisconsin opened up with a quick run to start overtime, Michigan couldn’t claw back again. It was an underwhelming performance against a much lesser opponent, but credit to Wisconsin for holding on in a tough road environment and defeating the reigning conference champions in their only meeting this season.

Previously: Iowa (Week III), Maryland (Week I), Rutgers (Week II)

[Hit the jump for the rest of the article]

4. Player of the Week: D’Angelo Russell

GOOD GOD D'ANGELO RUSSELL. (cc: @Landgrant33) https://t.co/eOqT2QLQy2

— Drew Hallett (@DrewCHallett) January 23, 2015

D'Angelo Russell just took a man's soul for his 28th, 29th and 30th point. https://t.co/Q14nTUxGtD

— Drew Hallett (@DrewCHallett) January 23, 2015

Drew Hallett's vine game has been on point lately.

@ Northwestern (W) – 33 points (12-17 shooting, 6 made threes), 7 rebounds, 6 assists

vs. Indiana (W) – 22 points (9-15 shooting), 6 rebounds, 10 assists

I named Russell the Player of the Week last week, and wrote this about his hot start:

He’s been Ohio State’s best wing player since Evan Turner – who was national player of the year in his final season in Columbus. He’s scored 20 or more points in four of his six Big Ten games; he’s averaged just under four assists per game in that same span. His usage rate is fourth-highest in the conference (behind Terran Petteway and Purdue’s center platoon of Hammons and Haas respectively) and he’s been very effective, even with the high usage. Even his steal rate (3.3, tenth-best in the league) indicates that he’ll be a good future pro.

He followed that week up with incredible performances against Northwestern and Indiana, averaging 27.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 8 assists in those two games. The rest of the Buckeyes have been somewhat underwhelming since the start of conference play, but not Russell: he’s gone supernova in a way that very few freshmen ever do at the college level (and, by the way, he leads the nation in scoring for a freshman). His precocious game seems limitless: he can score the ball in a ton of creative ways, he passes the ball better than most point guards, and he’s capable of taking over a game in an extremely uncommon way.

At this point, it’s hard to overstate his impact: he singlehandedly dominated Northwestern and carried the Buckeyes to a win; his stat lines from that game and others are, quite frankly, insane:

To contextualize his season numbers, here’s a list of recent Big Ten players (with admittedly arbitrary criteria):

From an objective standpoint, it’s a treat to watch such an excellent freshman play well in a tough conference. Fortunately for Michigan fans, Russell only plays the Wolverines once more (or twice, depending on the Big Ten Tournament) before leaving for the NBA. It’s clear from watching him that he’s physically mature and skilled enough to make it in the league – his attitude seems great as well (as far as I can tell). He’s something.

Previously: D’Angelo Russell (Week III), Travis Trice (Week II), Jarrod Uthoff (Week I)

5. Efficiency Scatterplot From Conference Games

Wisconsin’s win over Iowa distorts these numbers quite a bit – Wisconsin probably isn’t 10 points per 100 possessions better than last year’s highly efficient Michigan offense and Iowa isn’t the worst Big Ten defense over the last four years (they rank 83rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency over the whole season) – but there’s still interesting data here. Divided by quadrants, the conference breaks down like this:

• GOOD OFFENSE, GOOD DEFENSE: Michigan State, Wisconsin.
• GOOD OFFENSE, BAD DEFENSE: Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State.
• BAD OFFENSE, GOOD DEFENSE: Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, Purdue, Rutgers.
• BAD OFFENSE, BAD DEFENSE: Illinois, Northwestern, Penn State

This will be a graphic that I’ll keep an eye on as conference play progresses further (and adding more seasons as contextual data points would not be very difficult). Wisconsin and Iowa should gravitate towards the rest of the sample, but it’s interesting to see that – outside of those two – the distribution is fairly concentrated.

Maryland, Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue each have good defenses and questionable offenses; most of the rest of the league is less-defensively oriented with varying levels of offensive success (Indiana and Ohio State can score, Illinois and Northwestern cannot). Rutgers is an outlier as well: as anyone who’s watched much of them can attest, their offense is a mess for the most part – even though Kadeem Jack and Myles Mack are pretty decent (if inefficient) scoring options.

It’s nice to see that the two newcomers – Maryland and Rutgers – are more defensively-oriented teams. They’re fitting in just fine.

6. Team-By-Team Rundown

Dre Hollins has been on fire lately. (Source)

• Illinois – Rayvonte Rice was quietly having an awesome season before fracturing his hand during practice. The Illini are still in the mix for an NCAA Tournament bid, but they need to keep their heads above water until he comes back, whenever that may be.
• Indiana– John Gasaway pointed out that Indiana has given up 61% on opponent two-pointers since Hanner Mosquera-Perea’s injury. Their now-unavoidable super small-ball style works fine on offense, but not on defense.
• Iowa– I wrote last week that I was starting to believe in Iowa and they go 0-2 on the week – getting massacred by Wisconsin and losing to Purdue. Should have seen that one coming.
• Maryland – Congrats Maryland! Now that you’ve broken Northwestern’s spirit, you’re officially a member of the conference. We’ve all done it, and now you have too! It’s your turn to bring the Velveeta and Rotel to the Athletic Directors’ meetings.
• Michigan– The Wolverines’ NCAA Tournament hopes aren’t exactly dead yet, but a win against Wisconsin would have turned the season around in a hurry. Even though UM lost, it did show that the LeVert-less squad still has potential – the NIT seems overwhelmingly likely now though.
• Michigan State – Somehow, Michigan State has one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the entire country. As a team, they shoot 63% from the stripe; Bryn Forbes and Denzel Valentine are reliable, but Travis Trice doesn’t shoot them as well as you’d expect and Branden Dawson sits at 43% on the year.
• Minnesota– It’s going to be impossible for Minnesota to crawl out of their horrible start to conference play, but it’s nice to see Dre Hollins start to play really well: in the Gophers’ last three games, Hollins has scored 31, 21, and 28 points – Minnesota won two of those three.
• Nebraska – Yet again, Nebraska’s offense is quite stagnant: since Tim Miles took over in Lincoln, the Huskers’ team assist rates have ranked 322nd, 338th, and 310th nationally. They don’t move the ball well and perhaps that’s part of why Walter Pitchford’s struggled this year.
• Northwestern– There are plenty of great freshmen in the Big Ten this year, but Northwestern’s Bryant McIntosh has been the most underrated. He leads the Wildcats in usage rate, has a top-100 assist rate nationally, and has a true shooting percentage of 53.4%, which is very solid at his amount of shot attempts.
• Ohio State– Curiously, Ohio State was content to play super small-ball with Indiana: Anthony Lee only played four minutes, Trey McDonald played two, and the much-maligned former five-star Amir Williams recorded a DNP – CD. The Buckeye centers are a huge concern moving forward.
• Penn State – D.J. Newbill, Penn State’s Sisyphus, has still been playing extremely well: he’s scored at least 20 points against 5 of 7 Big Ten opponents (with a high of 37 against Purdue, in a loss of course). He’s efficient and soaks up a massive share of PSU’s possessions; they’ll really miss him next year.
• Purdue – The Boilermakers are projected by Pomeroy to finish at 9-9 in the Big Ten (17-14 overall) and would, with that record, miss the NCAA Tournament. If they get to 10 or 11 wins, they could still challenge for a bid, which is definitely possible.
• Rutgers– How did these guys beat Wisconsin? Seriously? How?
• Wisconsin – How did these guys lose to Rutgers? Seriously? How?

7. Evaluating Consistency

I took the efficiency data from each game involving a Big Ten team this season and found the averages and standard deviations of each team’s performance. I’m still not exactly positive of what to make of this data, but there are a few interesting suggestions:

Michigan has the most consistent defense in the conference, which seems insane to me – conversely, their offense is the second-most erratic; nobody ever knows what they’re going to get from Ohio State (whose weak non-conference schedule might distort the data some), Illinois, Iowa, and Purdue, which seems right; Nebraska and Penn State consistently mediocre; offenses tend to be slightly more consistent than defenses; better teams tend to be more inconsistent.

Any other interpretations of this data would be appreciated; I thought it would be an interesting and novel way to look at team performance in general terms.

8. Michigan’s Week That Was

Against Rutgers, Michigan was in the baby deer phase – hesitant, awkward, and they looked generally pitiable. They managed to win behind some hot late-game shooting, Rutgers’s frustrating proclivity for mid-range bricks, and an egalitarian scoring distribution. It was an ugly game much in the vein of the infamous #M00N football game between Michigan and Northwestern; unlike that game, this was paradoxically fun – seeing an incredibly green Michigan squad come back to win on the road in the Big Ten was entertaining. Let’s make no mistake, it was a hideous game and Rutgers is still Rutgers (HOW DID THEY BEAT WISCONSIN).

Michigan’s marquee home contest against Wisconsin could have been another blowout, but the Wolverines actually played pretty well – especially on the defensive end, considering Wisconsin’s firepower. Derrick Walton’s shot to send the game to overtime was one of the most clutch I’ve seen in a few years (obviously Burke’s famous dagger against Kansas wins that contest) and his dogged play down the stretch was impressive – although he may have aggravated his foot injury. Michigan’s big men were surprisingly adequate against Frank Kaminsky and playing Wisconsin even over forty minutes – even at home – is incredibly encouraging.

Weirdly, I felt better about our team and our season after the loss last week than I did after the win. An upset would have been phenomenal, but just seeing Michigan be very competitive against elite competition was encouraging.

9. Michigan’s Week Ahead

Best combination of hairstyle and facial hair in the Big Ten. (Source)

vs. Nebraska (Tonight)

@ Michigan State (Sunday)

Simply put, tonight’s contest against Nebraska is a virtual must-win for Michigan: if the Wolverines have any NCAA Tournament aspirations left, they need to win what may very well be the second-easiest game left on their schedule (behind the home finale against Rutgers).

Nebraska hasn’t left Lincoln much this season and in true road games, they haven’t fared well, losing to Rhode Island, Hawaii, Iowa, and Wisconsin, while only beating a weak Florida State squad in true road games. It should be a slog: Michigan can pack it in with the 2-3 zone and dare Nebraska to shoot them out of it – which is pretty unlikely. Both of these are staunchly defense-first teams that play at a slower pace… a recipe for unaesthetic basketball. Winning ugly would be perfectly fine with me, in any case, and it would leave Michigan at 6-3 in conference play halfway through – even though it’s been a weak schedule so far, that’s about as well as we could have asked for.

As for Michigan State, it’s almost redundant to run down the importance of this game (which I perceive to be Michigan basketball’s biggest rivalry). Winning in the Breslin Center is rare enough – and State is more susceptible than usual – but [whatever cliché you want to use about rivalry games and both teams playing hard or whatever].

10. Week V Schedule

In chronological order:

• Nebraska at Michigan
• Minnesota at Penn State
• Indiana at Purdue
• Michigan State at Rutgers
• Maryland at Ohio State
• Wisconsin at Iowa
• Penn State at Illinois
• Rutgers at Indiana
• Nebraska at Minnesota
• Purdue at Northwestern
• Michigan at Michigan State

Arbitrarily chosen key games are in bold.