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The Question:
Ace: Michigan's basketball season is almost certainly lost, but there's always the prospect of seeing one or two players transform under Beilein's continued tutelage, especially now that most of the freshmen have been thrust into major roles. Which freshman do you expect to show the most improvement over the rest of the season, and which do you want to see show the most improvement?
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| Nnanna nnanna, nnanna nnanna, hey hey hey, that's pretty high. [photo: Upchurch] |
The Answers:
Dave Nasternak: Expect: Ricky Doyle. I think this is probably the most obvious choice. First, he's been starting for awhile, now, and has already shown improvement in various areas. I'm guessing he's leading in 'freshman minutes played?' If not, he's got to be close. So, just due to experience on the floor, he's got the be as comfortable in his role as any of the other contenders. Plus, the areas of improvement for Doyle are closely related to experience and mental understanding: positional awareness and some body control (almost always for bigs) vs. increased shooting %s, building muscle, better technique, etc. In addition to a couple of post moves, Doyle has shown patience inside and flashes of passion/GAF, which is exactly what you want to see to fuel his improvement. It would also be ideal if he could grab a few more rebounds.
Hope: While there is definitely something to be said for Aubrey Dawkins, I'm going to go with Kam Chatman. Chatman came into school with a ton of hype and excitement—not to mention a little more hair—but has only showed flashes of his potential in short bursts. While Chatman has looked lost both offensively and defensively for long stretches of this year, I do believe that he has the highest ceiling of any freshman on the roster. Plus, unless Donnal were to move down a position, Chatman is the ideal 4 on this roster. His length, size, and athleticism would make him the most ideal fit for the position that Beilein has had in his M tenure. Chatman will definitely have to improve his court awareness, positioning, and definitely his shooting consistency in order to do so, however. Based on losing his starting spot, a further decrease in minutes, and the eyeball test when he was playing more consistently, I'm guessing that his "growth jump" will come over the summer or in 15/16 rather than in the next couple of months.
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Ace: Expect: Aubrey Dawkins. Doyle is also a solid choice, though I think much of his improvement is going to come after another offseason in which he goes from "strong for a freshman" to "strong." Dawkins got less time early on and is just starting to put it all together; with Caris LeVert out the rest of the season, he's going to have a much bigger role, too. While I'm not sure we'll see a ton of progress in his offensive repertoire—he's mostly a spot-up shooter and transition finisher right now, and that's fine—there's plenty of room for his rebounding numbers to go up, and he's certainly got the athletic ability to make a more consistent impact on the boards.
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| Yes, Mark. Give in to your anger. [Fuller] |
Hope: Mark Donnal. Could very easily say Chatman here, but the emergence of Dawkins lessens the need for him to pan out, and while Chatman was expected to be a big piece of the program going forward, Donnal could be a system-changing guy if he ever hits his ceiling. He's a long way from that right now—he's not physical enough on either side of the court, his finishing has been poor, and his three-point shot has come and gone. If he can at least turn into a threat to hit the occasional pick-and-pop jumper, that'd be a good start. While it's largely gone unnoticed, his rebounding has been a big plus; now he needs to add the strength to fight through contact at the basket and deny post position to opposing bigs.
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Seth: Expect: MAAR. Or RAHK, or whatever we're calling Muhammed-Ali Everett Josephus Augustus Bartlesby Siobhan Charry-Bahri-Rucci Smith-Kaplan Abdur-Rahkman these days. I agree with Ace regarding Doyle, but after the Rutgers game I sensed Michigan would rather go small with him than lean on the 3 and 4. Aubrey Dawkins will indeed see his role increase; MAAR has played far fewer minutes and has almost as direct a path to playing time from here.
My rule of thumb with basketball progression is the bigger the position, the more it's about simple physical growth. Dawkins can use his athleticism to get more rebounds, but right now he gives up 25 pounds to the average Big Ten four he'll be banging away with. MAAR gets to be on a more steady, guard-like progression, and there are plenty of minutes available to make that visceral with Walton looking hobbled and Spike being Spike-sized. This is admittedly a pessimistic view.
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| Relax, Chat. [Fuller] |
Hope:I agree a big jump for a big would be grand, but agreement is boring so I'll speak the case for Chatman Explosion. Again, I defer to Ace that Dawkins makes the need for Chatman less immediate, but Michigan lost a ton of length when Caris went out, and a magic Chatman emergence gets a lot of that back.
Kam has been too much of a disappointment so far to wave it off as freshmanitude, but that still leaves a huge and immediate ceiling of potential. For the most part he has looked more lost in the system, and that is amendable—no program that runs the stem replaces 2.5 NBA sophomores with freshmen every year, and for a reason.
So there's a glimmer of hope that the pressure to be a factor right away simply bewildered a guy whose high school career was beating up on lesser athletes. And given the ceiling on this year's team with all the #weirdguys. whatever glimmers for 2016 and beyond we find will be extra special precious. The second-best thing that could happen to this team after Donnal Beast Mode would be a 4.5 star wing to start playing like a guy who could start for Arizona right now next year.
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Brian: Expect: Doyle. Doyle's already shown the most out of the freshmen and that's with conditioning slowing him down. He was limited in the preseason with an ankle issue, remember, and he's had a serious cold or some other respiratory thing holding down his minutes the last couple games.
As we saw with Mitch McGary, disrupting a young big's conditioning can have major consequences for his game, not just his minutes, and as Doyle rounds into a guy who can go 30 minutes most nights I bet he is looked at as one of the most promising young bigs in the league. He's got a bunch of skill around the basket, and if his hands can just get stronger he'll be highly effective.
Hope: Dawkins. It might be better for Michigan if Chatman started playing well, but to be honest I have little hope that's going to happen this year. The thing with the blown left handed layup when he was coming from the right side was just... cumong man. He does not seem to be progressing.
Dawkins, on the other hand, is. He had a nice take to the bucket against Rutgers, is shooting acceptably from outside, and has crazy hops he should start using more now that LeVert's out. He's got the frame to be a quality defender at the three as well. He just needs to start getting comfortable with the offense and passing some more--one assist on the year is suboptimal. I'm hoping we see him round into GRIII junior (GRIV?) by the end of the year. Throw it down, medium man.