Preview: Rutgers

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Look up Rutgers mascot images, get free nightmares for life. (Source)

THE US

The injury situation went from limiting to dire in a hurry, with the worst of it being Caris LeVert's season-ending foot fracture suffered on the final play of Saturday's Northwestern game.

It doesn't end there. Spike Albrecht and Ricky Doyle are both questionable due to illness; after Albrecht missed the whole game and Doyle the second half on Saturday, neither practiced Sunday. The same bug has limited Zak Irvin, though he's been able to play and practice through it. Kameron Chatman is questionable due to swelling in his knee.

Even the scout team has been hit hard. DJ Wilson still isn't cleared for full-court practice, so he's not (yet) a candidate to have his redshirt lifted. Transfer Duncan Robinson, who isn't even eligible to play, has sat out the last few weeks with a sprained ankle. Things got so bad this week that David Merritt, the former walk-on point guard, suited up for practice alongside coaches and team managers. No, he doesn't have any more eligibility.

If the questionable players can't go, Michigan will have a very short bench. The presumed starting lineup would be Walton-MAAR-Irvin-Dawkins-Donnal, leaving Max Bielfeldt as the only scholarship player off the bench. Walk-on Sean Lonergan practiced with the first team Monday in anticipation of getting serious minutes.

THE STAKES

Not losing to Rutgers would be nice.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

Rutgers had a rough go in nonconference play, losing to #180 St. Peter's and #174 St. Francis at home and failing to come within 17 points of the three top-100 squads they faced. They started off the Big Ten schedule by losing at home to Northwestern, edged Penn State by four at home, got blown out at Nebraska, and then... beat Wisconsin. Yes, the Badgers were without Frank Kaminsky, but that's still deeply bizarre.

The Scarlet Knights have followed up their signature win with road losses to Maryland and Minnesota, the latter giving the Gophers their first conference win.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Rutgers boasts just one player with an ORtg over 100 on the season, though at least it's the guy who usually has the ball in his hands: point guard Myles Mack, who leads the team in scoring and assists. Aside from a high assist rate, Mack's numbers don't jump off the page—he's shooting 49% on twos and 33% on threes—but he's the only reliable outside shooter on the team. He's also very capable of creating his own shot; only 41% of his made field goals have been assisted, per hoop-math. Mack almost never comes off the floor, playing a B1G-high 94% of his team's available minutes in conference play.

Forward/center Kadeem Jack takes the most shots on the team, which isn't ideal—as a stretch big who's not much of a post threat, Jack's hitting 43% of his twos and 29% of his threes. A lot of his forays end before he gets to the basket; just over half of Jack's shots are two-point jumpers, of which he hits just 26%. With four 20-point games this season, though, he's liable to go off if his shots are falling. He's a solid offensive rebounder, as well, but his numbers on the other end are lacking a bit.

Junior Bishop Daniels started at the two to begin the season before an ankle injury cost him the better part of five games in nonconference play; he then had to win the job back from freshman Mike Williams. This position battle hasn't exactly been a clash of the titans. Daniels is an iffy shooter (44/30/70 2P%/3P%/FT%) who turns the ball over a lot. Williams is largely a spot-up shooter who's hitting just 43% of his twos and 23% of his threes. Daniels gets to the line a lot more, while Williams does a much better job taking care of the ball.

Sophomore forward Junior Etou is the team's best rebounder, especially on defense, but like much of this Rutgers team he's got issues making shots and taking care of the ball. Big man Greg Lewis has Egwuian rebounding splits—decent of offense, surprisingly lacking on defense—and a solid block rate; he's not much of a finisher, though he does get to the line quite a bit, where he shoots 64%.

Rutgers mostly sticks to playing the six guys above. Freshman forward DJ Foreman sees sporadic minutes; he's struggling from the field, and while he gets to the line quite often, he's hit just 7/25 free throws on the season. He's also got a turnover rate above 25%, which looks solid compared to backup center Shaquille Doorson, who rarely touches the ball for good reason—he's boasting a 46.9 TO% in Big Ten play.

THE TEMPO-FREE

We've got enough of a sample size that these stats are now conference-only. As you might expect, that change isn't so kind to Michigan's offense.

Four Factors explanation

Rutgers has a downright bad offense, ranking 200th or worse nationally in all four factors, including a 44.5 eFG% that places them 307th—they're equally bad scoring inside and outside the arc. They have a low assist rate and major turnover issues, and they don't make up for that by getting second chances or free throws very often. As a result, their 93.3 offensive efficiency ranks dead last in the conference.

Defense has kept the Knights at least somewhat competitive, though their fourth-best efficiency mark in the Big Ten is bolstered by what appears to be unsustainably lucky three-point defense—they give up a ton of looks but opponents are only shooting 31% from beyond the arc. They also have the second-best "free-throw defense" in the conference.

If you've got to play on the road without seemingly half your roster, there are far worse places to go than Piscataway.

THE KEYS

Stop coughing on each other. It's too late for much of the team, but they've got to at least be able to fill out a starting lineup.

Hold up inside. Michigan's post defense has been lacking when Ricky Doyle isn't a full go, and they'll lose to Rutgers if they let Kadeem Jack have one of his rare efficient games. While Jack isn't much of a pure post player, which is good news, he does provide some matchup difficulties when he lines up at center—Donnal and Bielfeldt have to be prepared to move their feet a bit if M goes man-to-man, and if Doyle can't go they'll have to be careful about hacking on drives. It wouldn't surprise if Beilein calls for a heavy dose of the 1-3-1, especially given Rutgers' turnover issues and lack of outside shooting threats.

Find a way. I really have no idea where Michigan is going to find their offense without LeVert barring a significant step forward in Walton's health. Perhaps MAAR can be a spark; while he's still a little unreliable as a finisher, he's reliably worked his way to the basket off the dribble, something M desperately needs right now.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Rutgers by 1.

That KenPom projection doesn't even take LeVert's injury and the various maladies plaguing half the dang team into account. So, yeah, I'll stick with the Rutgers pick.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Some Rutgers perspective from On The Banks—they thinks rebounds and turnovers will be the key to the game.