Preview: Northwestern

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Last year, when Michigan was much better and Northwestern was, as usual, Northwestern. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE STAKES

Losing this game would probably be a mild disappointment to the football recruits in attendance.

Oh, and it'd be pretty bad for the basketball team, too.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

Northwestern lost to all four KenPom top-150 teams they played in the nonconference portion of the schedule, with the narrowest margin by eight points at home against #89 Georgia Tech. They broke that streak in the first Big Ten game, upsetting(?) #145 Rutgers in Piscataway by four points. They've dropped all three conference games since, getting run off their home court by Wisconsin before tight contests at Michigan State and at home against Illinois. The MSU game went to overtime, and Northwestern came within a fingernail of inbounding in the frontcourt to tie their in-state rival in the final second of regulation, only for review to give the ball (rightfully, it appeared) to the Illini.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

With Drew Crawford's 18 years of eligibility finally exhausted, Northwestern had a big hole to fill on offense heading into this season, and thus far freshman point guard Bryant McIntosh has done so admirably. While McIntosh isn't particularly efficient—turnovers and two-pointers are sore spots—he's hitting 41% of his threes and posting a top-100 assist rate while using a quarter of the team's possessions.

Shooting guard Tre Demps has also taken on a bigger role to the detriment of the offense. He accounts for 28% of the team's shots when he's on the floor, but his shooting splits are an ugly 46/29/64 (2P%/3P%/FT%). Behold:

Woof.

Four-star Chicago-bred freshman Vic Law was Northwestern's biggest recruiting coup in ages, but his game is still very much a work-in-progress. A good defender and solid rebounder, Law has yet to put it together offensively, hitting 46% of his twos and just 21% of his threes. He's often spelled by senior JerShon Cobb, largely a spot-up shooter who's hitting a middling 32% of his triples, and freshman Scottie Lindsey, who's 11/25 from downtown this season. With defense emphasized so much by coach Chris Collins, one can only imagine Lindsey has some shortcomings on that end or he'd be seeing more minutes.

Sanjay Lumpkin has a tiny 11% usage rate and is, naturally, the most efficient starter on the Wildcats, pouring in 67% of his twos—many of those coming at the basket—and 36% of his threes. He's backed up by another very effective shooter, sophomore Nathan Taphorn, who's 13/19 from two and 13/25 from three this season. Neither is much of a rebounder for a nominal four, especially Taphorn, who's posting a remarkably low 7.8% defensive rebound rate—2.5 points lower than Spike Albrecht's rate.

Center Alex Olah picks up much of the rebounding slack and defends the rim pretty well. He's also relatively skilled for a seven-footer, even capable of stepping out and hitting the occasional three, though his efficiency around the rim (49% 2P) hasn't been too impressive. Unlike a lot of big men, Olah doesn't get into foul trouble often, so he plays the vast majority of the minute at the five for the Wildcats.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Northwestern isn't much of an offensive team, coming into the game 10th in the Big Ten in efficiency despite a significant uptick in three-point shooting in conference play. They've been good this season at taking care of the ball, but they don't hit the boards much at all and rarely get to the line—those trends shouldn't change against a Michigan defense that fares well in both of those categories.

The defense has been exposed in the Big Ten since the opener against Rutgers, allowing 1.27, 1.20, and 1.18 PPP in the following three games. While part of that has been due to unusually hot outside shooting by their opponents, they've also forced turnovers on just 10.5% of possessions, easily the worst mark in the conference.

THE KEYS

Find a rhythm. Northwestern, with their exceptionally small turnover rate, isn't going to disrupt Michigan's halfcourt offense too much; they'll play positionally sound defense and hope to contest shots. If the Wolverines are able to start creating some good looks again, that'll play right into their hands; if they're aimlessly moving the ball around the perimeter, it could be an ugly game.

Check McIntosh. The Wildcats don't boast much in the way of outside shooting threats, but their freshman point guard qualifies in terms of both efficiency and volume. While Tre Demps occasionally goes off, his shooting chart speaks for itself—Michigan should be fine letting him try to work one-on-one while making sure not to help off McIntosh.

Win The Game. Per KenPom, this matchup represents Michigan's best win probability (78%) until the season finale against Rutgers. Lose this and suddenly the NIT becomes in iffy proposition. Please don't let that happen.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 7.

That Tre Demps shooting chart is very comforting.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Beilein mentioned at his presser today that DJ Wilson is now back to practicing, but there are no plans to play him—he's still in line for a redshirt.