Preview: Ohio State

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Don't mock me, Thad. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE STAKES

This game is all about upside for Michigan, as nobody really expects them to win this one: Ohio State is 100-9 at home since 2009-10, the Wolverines haven't exactly impressed even during their back-to-back wins, and both KenPom and Vegas have the Buckeyes favored by ten.

Pull off the upset, though, and Michigan would suddenly have a signature win while sitting, however briefly, alone atop the conference standings. (Wisconsin, Maryland, and Michigan State don't play tonight.) To get to 12 conference wins—the likely target number for an NCAA bid—they're going to have to pull out an unlikely win or two, and this would certainly qualify.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

The Buckeyes dropped just two non-conference games, both to top-ten teams, falling at #9 Louisville and dropping a neutral-court game to #9 UNC. They played the rest of their non-conference schedule at home and won every game handily, though the top-ranked team they beat was #95 Marquette.

They're off to just a 2-2 start to Big Ten play. OSU lost their opener at home to Iowa when freshman phenom D'Angelo Russell had a rough day from the field and the defense turned in an uncharacteristically poor performance. After a blowout home victory over Illinois and a thrilling overtime triumph at Minnesota, they fell by three points at Indiana on Saturday when, once again, Russell went cold.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE OBLIGATORY GIF

THE THEM

While the Buckeyes aren't nearly as strong a defensive team as they were last season—although, at 44th nationally in defensive efficiency, they certainly aren't bad—they've made major strides offensively; neither of those is a huge surprise considering they replaced Aaron Craft with Russell, trading a defensive ace with major offensive shortcomings for a talented freshman scorer.

Ohio State actually began the season running the 2-3 zone almost exclusively, but Thad Matta scrapped that for a man-to-man look after they were dismantled by the Hawkeyes. The results have been mixed. They held Illinois, before Rayvonte Rice's injury, to just 0.86 points per possession and forced 20 turnovers. In the two games since, however, they've given up a hair above one PPP despite keeping their turnover rate above 20%.

One guy they don't have to worry about on defense is point guard Shannon Scott, who's essentially a less-heralded Craft; he's a great defender, posts a huge assist rate, and struggles with his jumper and the occasional turnover. Even though Scott stands at just 6'1", it wouldn't surprise at all if Matta deployed him on Caris LeVert, especially with Derrick Walton still struggling to get to the basket.

The headliner is D'Angelo Russell, who's averaging a hair under 18 points per game while shooting 46% from two, 45% from three, and 79% from the line. He's more than just a scorer, too, pulling down 4.6 rebounds and dishing out 4.9 assists per game—he sees the floor very well off the dribble. Finding a way to slow him down is obviously priority one.

Forward Sam "Slam" Thompson more than lives up to his nickname, using his spectacular vertical to hit 63% of his twos—often thunderous dunks—and record a decent number of blocks for a 6'7" wing. Pull him away from the basket, however, and he becomes far less effective; he's just 10/44 from outside the arc.

Sophomore Marc Loving is in the midst of a breakout year after the former Parade All-American turned in an underwhelming freshman season. He's an extremely effective spot-up shooter, hitting 50% of his threes on nearly half his attempts from the field; he can also create his own offense inside the arc, posting a 50% mark on two-pointers along with an impressive free throw rate. His rebound numbers are lacking for a guy who spends the majority of his time at the four; otherwise, he's been a very pleasant surprise for OSU this season.

Center Amir Williams posts solid numbers but is also the guy most likely to make Ohio State fans tear at their hair in frustration. His block rate is 12th in the country. He pulls down a healthy number of boards on both ends. In a very limited offensive role, he hits 71% of his shots. Still, he's prone to going for blocks when he should be boxing out, and he remains turnover-prone on offense.

Freshman sixth man Jae'Sean Tate provides a much-needed rebounding boost off the bench despite standing at just 6'4"; his strong physique and excellent instincts allow him to post rebounding rates on par with the 6'11" Williams. Tate also finishes quite well around the hoop, knocking down twos at a 65% clip; he also draws a good number of fouls, though he's just a 53% free-throw shooter. Tate will be a tough draw for Zak Irvin, who'll spend more time fighting in the post than he's accustomed to.

Redshirt freshman Kam Williams gives the Buckeyes an efficient scorer off the bench, though he hasn't played much recently. He's posted 63/42/88 shooting splits this season, so his lack of minutes of late is almost certainly related to issues on the defensive end of the court. Senior Trey McDonald, a wide-bodied center who's tough to handle on the offensive boards, will spell Williams for stretches along with grad-year transfer Anthony Lee, who hasn't made the impact many expected while dealing with some nagging injuries.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

The Buckeyes boast the #21 offense in the country due in large part to some impressive shooting numbers: they're seventh in two-point percentage and 32nd from beyond the arc, though their outside shooting has gone cold during Big Ten play. They take care of the ball and crash the boards pretty well; if there's a weakness, it's that they don't get to the line very often.

OSU's defense forces the seventh-most turnovers in the country—which helps fuel a solid transition game—and they block a ton of shots. Despite the latter, however, they've been poor at defending inside the arc in conference play, letting opponents hit over 50% of their twos. A big factor in that has been awful defensive rebounding—they've allowed the highest offensive rebounding rate in the Big Ten.

THE KEYS

Slow down Russell. The common thread among Ohio State's losses has been poor outings from D'Angelo Russell. Michigan will reportedly start out by putting Derrick Walton on him, which may be their best option—even while hampered by the toe injury, Walton's been better than Caris LeVert at fighting over screens, an important factor given Russell's ability to hit threes off the bounce. Given Russell's shot chart...

...forcing him right as much as possible also seems like a good idea. If all else fails, Michigan has to make sure to at least run him off the three-point line—while he's deadly from the outside, he's still got work to do as a finisher inside the arc.

Protect the rock. Even after their switch to man-to-man, Ohio State has been very proficient in forcing turnovers, and they're a really good transition team when they do so. Michigan has to be careful with the ball and at the very least avoid live-ball turnovers that OSU can turn into instant offense. Going up strong around the hoop will be key—the block-steal combination has led to more than one highlight-worthy Sam Thompson fast break throwdown this season.

Unleash Doyle. If Michigan's going to win, I think it'll take a big game from the freshman center, and I also don't believe that's too unreasonable to expect. If LeVert/Walton/Albrecht can work their way close to the hoop, Amir Williams is liable to go for blocks that should create opportunities for little drop passes to Doyle. OSU has also given up a lot of second-shot opportunities, and Doyle's been strong on the offensive boards this season; I don't expect M to throw many other bodies at the glass due to the efficient Buckeye transition attack. So long as Doyle can stay out of a foul trouble—something he should be able to do against a low-usage center like Williams—he should get as many minutes as he can handle.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Ohio State by 10.

The Buckeye weaknesses—two-point defense and defensive rebounding—aren't exactly ones Michigan is best-equipped to exploit. Meanwhile, their strengths—a stellar scoring guard, consistently efficient two-point shooting—are in areas the Wolverines have had a tough time handling. Shutting down Russell is no easy task, and I'm not confident M's perimeter defenders are up to it.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Five-star 2015 prospect Jaylen Brown will take an official visit to Ann Arbor on January 24th, which is pretty cool, in my opinion.