Preview: Minnesota

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Michigan swept last year's games against the Gophers; Saturday's tilt will be their only matchup this regular season. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

The Gophers are winless so far in Big Ten play, though much of that has to do with a tough schedule: after opening conference play at #63 Purdue, a game they kept close, they lost handily at #20 Maryland before falling to #17 Ohio State at home in overtime—the OSU game was a tight, exciting contest throughout. Minnesota's two nonconference losses are also of the quality variety, against #9 Louisville (neutral court) and at #34 St. John's.

Quality wins, however, are lacking. Other than a neutral-court triumph over #33 Georgia, Minnesota hasn't beaten a team ranked higher than #115 (Western Kentucky), and only one other win came against a top-200 opponent. 

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Minnesota is one of the faster, more aggressive teams in the country, though they've been slowed substantially in conference play; their turnover-reliant, trapping defense historically fares better against crummy opponents in the brief Richard Pitino era.

One player who doesn't get slowed by much is waterbug point guard DeAndre Mathieu, who compensates for his size with remarkable quickness, slick handles, and a surprising ability to finish at the rim. He's also the primary distributor on offense, posting an impressive assist rate, though he's been quite turnover-prone in conference play. While his size hampers him defensively, he boasts a top-25 steal rate.

The remaining Hollins not-brother (Austin graduated), Andre Hollins, is struggling in what many had hoped would be a standout senior year. While he's shooting 45% from two and 40% from three on the season, he's just 6/32 from the field in Big Ten play, and turnovers have been an issue all season. Hollins showed signs of life in the second half of the Ohio State game, drilling three triples to help force overtime. Still, he's all but disappeared against quality opponents—even in the Georgia win, he managed just eight points against five turnovers.

JuCo transfer Carlos Morris has stepped into a starting spot and a featured role on both ends; he's got the highest usage rate of any non-center and is just outside the top 50 in steal rate. While Morris is at his best when he gets to the rim, he usually settles for jumpers, so his 48/33/74 shooting splits aren't as impressive as they could be. He's certainly not afraid to shoot—while he usually hangs around ten FGA per game, he hoisted 21 shots in the loss to Maryland. (He hit just seven, posting a 2/10 mark from three-point range.)

Stretch four Joey King doesn't do a whole lot other than shoot, but he does that pretty well, hitting 41% of his threes while taking nearly half his shots from that range. He's a virtual nonfactor on the boards, a common thread among Minnesota power forwards; Charles Buggs, whom you might remember ending up inside GRIII's shorts on a spectacular alley-oop last season...

...fits a similar statistical profile with worse outside shooting (33% 3P), a better ability to get to the hoop and draw contact, and a marginally improved offensive rebounding rate.

Minnesota claims one of the better one-two big man combinations in the conference with starter Maurice Walker and backup Elliott Eliason. Walker shoots 63% while taking 25% of the team's shots when he's on the floor; he's also an elite rebounder and shot-blocker. Eliason attempts far fewer shots but knocks them down at a 69% clip, and his offensive rebounding rate would fall well within the top 100 if he qualified; he's also a decent rim protector. These two are going to be tough for Michigan's young bigs to handle.

6'1" freshman guard Nate Mason is the team's sixth man; he actually plays a majority of the minutes, splitting his time between the one and the two. He's a very good outside shooter (42% 3P) and extremely active defender—his 5.1% steal rate is 12th nationally. Minnesota's high-pressure defense, as you might have gathered, contributes to their players' individual steal rates; they're third nationally in that regard as a team.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Michigan's main obstacle against this Minnesota defense will be taking care of the ball; the Gophers boast the nation's third-best turnover rate, and while that number has fallen during Big Ten play it's still at nearly 22% over the last three games. They don't do much else well on that end; their gambling style on the perimeter really hurts them on the boards, and their field goal defense is below average—they're susceptible both inside and outside the arc.

The Gophers shot the ball extremely well during nonconference play, but they've gone cold against the Big Ten, posting the league's fifth-worst eFG%—much of that has to do with Hollins' individual struggles. They're not great at taking care of the ball, but they've been solid at crashing the offensive boards of late.

THE KEYS

Take care of the rock. Ohio State and Purdue both won or tied the turnover battle in narrow wins against the Gophers. (Maryland didn't come close, but won handily thanks to a decided shooting edge.) Unless Michigan is raining in outside shots, they're going to have to do the same. I'd expect Spike Albrecht to play the vast majority of the minutes in this one*, and Caris LeVert is going to have to be careful on his forays to the basket—he can get a little loose with his handle, and Minnesota is the type of team that will take advantage of that.

*It looks like he'll get the starting nod again.

Capitalize on second chances. If Michigan can avoid turnovers, they should be able to get some second-shot opportunities; Minnesota's trapping on the perimeter makes it difficult for them to account for every potential rebounder. This isn't the team's strength, of course, but if Michigan can just keep the rebounding battle even that would bode well for their chances.

Deny the post. While Minnesota hasn't shot the ball well in conference play, they can usually put four solid gunners around Maurice Walker, an excellent post scorer. That means it'll be risky for M's guards to give much help to the bigs down low, so the team may want to try a different tack and do their best to keep Minnesota from getting the ball to the post entirely. The 2-3 could come in handy here, albeit while potentially allowing more outside shots—Michigan has been pretty successful at clogging passing lanes using the zone this season.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.

Aside from the Penn State game, Michigan has been very good at taking care of the ball, as per usual under John Beilein. That should be enough to get the Wolverines past what'll be a tough home test against a desperate Minnesota squad.

ELSEWHERE

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