Preview: Purdue

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Purdue's enigmatic center AJ Hammons no longer has to contend with Jordan Morgan. He has, however, lost his starting job to freshman Isaac Haas. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. %Min and %Poss figure are from this season now—yes, there will be a fair amount of noise in these numbers for a while. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open.

*returning starter

THE RESUME

Purdue, being a Purdue team of recent vintage, has a truly bizarre resume born of wild inconsistency. In nonconference play they posted quality wins over #36 BYU in the Maui Invitational and #81 NC State at home. Losses to #105 Kansas State and #52 Vanderbilt were at the very least understandable given the nine- and ten-point margins. Not so much the 31-point neutral court blowout at the hands of #18 Notre Dame, and certainly not the upset home losses to #172 North Florida and #160 Gardner Webb. The Vandy-ND-GW defeats all came in a row before the Boilermakers tipped off Big Ten play by... beating #29 Minnesota by four at home.

I don't know what to make of them, either.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Matt Painter has tested out five different starting lineup combinations so far this season. The lineup card reflects their most recent combo, which also happens to be the one listed in Purdue's game notes—in the latest switch, guard Bryson Scott replaced forward Vince Edwards in the starting five.

The Boilermakers run their offense through the post, though the man who starts—and is most effective—in the middle may surprise you. The seven-footer whose name might as well be The Enigmatic AJ Hammons lost his starting job to mammoth freshman Isaac Haas six games ago; while Hammons has been his usual shot-blocking and rebounding force, he's hitting just 49% of his shots while struggling with turnovers and, apparently, his confidence:

"Most of my mistakes are my own mistakes, like mentally," Hammons said. "Probably getting down on myself, frustration, or just a lack of confidence when I'm shooting. I've been trying to get into the gym, me and coach (Brandon) Brantley, getting hook shots up. I've been coming in for extra film. We've been getting more lifts in. Hopefully this can get me ready for it."

Fortunately for Purdue, Haas has more than picked up the slack, matching Hammons' excellent rebounding numbers, blocking a decent number of shots, and shooting 62% while handling a high workload; he also draws an absurd 8.7 fouls per 40 minutes (2nd nationally), though he's knocking down just 55% of his free throws.

Even while accounting for the scoring struggles of Hammons, Purdue boasts one of the most effective one-two center combinations around. As Dylan points out in his preview, they use them quite a bit, too: Purdue posts up nearly three times as often as the average Big Ten team with solid—albeit not outstanding—efficiency, while Michigan has the worst post-up defense in the conference. The latter stat probably doesn't come as a huge surprise.

Purdue's most consistent second option has been 6'6" wing Kendall Stephens, their lone player who lights it up from the outside (44% 3-pt) on a high number of attempts. He takes more than twice as many threes as twos, and for good reason—he's shooting just 25% inside the arc. Stephens is just about the only Boilermaker defenders can't leave to double down into the post.

Raphael Davis, an effective slasher who draws a healthy number of fouls, is projected to start at the four. That had been the role for freshman Vince Edwards—a former M recruiting target—until the Minnesota game; Edwards was reportedly battling the flu, so there's a good chance he retakes his spot in the lineup tomorrow. He certainly didn't lose it due to effectiveness; Edwards boasts impressive 65/40/81 (2P/3P/FT) shooting splits alongside solid rebounding rates. If Edwards is in the starting lineup, Davis should slide down to the three, where he doesn't provide much of an outside shooting threat at all but can better use his size to attack off the dribble.

Davis is one of two players to start every game this season, along with senior guard Jon Octeus, a Colorado State transfer who hasn't quite been the answer at point guard Purdue hoped he'd be; while he's a decent scorer as the team's fifth option, he's dished out just 36 assists in 14 games against 18 turnovers.

If Edwards is still under the weather, guard Bryson Scott is penciled into the starting lineup, though he struggled in his first start of the season against the Gophers—Scott picked up two early fouls and finished with no points on 0/3 shooting with two turnovers. A couple guards with very small usage rates, PJ Thompson and Dakota Mathias, are the other main rotation players; sophomore forward Basil Smotherman, who saw his role diminish as his freshman year wore on, will also see some run.

THE TEMPO-FREE

As you've probably gathered, Purdue's offense is very interior-oriented. They're 59th nationally in two-point shooting and 26th in offensive rebound rate; meanwhile, they're just 259th in 3PA/FGA, though they knock down their threes at a slightly above-average clip. For a team without strong point guard play they generate quite a few assists; when Hammons is out there, every guy on the court is at least a capable passer—Haas is a little more of a black hole, though he more than makes up for it with his finishing.

It's very tough to score inside on Purdue; they're 15th in block rate and allow just 42.4% shooting inside the arc. They haven't been nearly as good defending the perimeter, with opponents knocking down 38.5% of their threes, though that may be fluky—they actually allow a below-average number of attempts.

THE KEYS

Collapse inside. Michigan isn't going to be able to get away with manning up on Haas and Hammons without providing plenty of help inside. Given Purdue's general lack of outside shooting and the success Michigan had with the zone against Illinois, it wouldn't surprise at all if John Beilein called for a lot of 2-3 with a focus on clogging the passing lanes and collapsing into the paint. Ricky Doyle needs to come up with a huge performance; he's a more adept post-up defender than Mark Donnal at this point, and Max Bielfeldt will be at a huge size disadvantage if he's called upon; staying out of foul trouble will be key.

Except off of Stephens. The one guy Michigan can't lose on the perimeter is Stephens, who's a dead-eye shooter, especially from the right wing (47%) and right corner (88%[!!!]), per Shot Analytics. That could get tougher if/when the Wolverines go to a zone, but their best chance in this game is trading Purdue twos for Michigan threes, especially since...

Bombs away. ...Michigan's offense is going to have to come primarily from the perimeter unless both the Wolverines and Boilermakers buck all their season trends on that end of the court. Purdue's excellent interior defense and Michigan's lack of ability to get much of anything going at the rim doesn't bode well; Purdue's iffy outside defending, on the other hand, could be something to exploit. Here's hoping the rims aren't as tight in Mackey as they seemingly have been in Crisler of late.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Purdue by 4.

This seems about right given the major mismatch at the five. For Michigan to win, it's probably going to take a deluge of threes.

ELSEWHERE

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