[For the new, this is our weekly roundtable that hasn't been weekly]
Harbaugh, upon being asked if he's too Harbaugh to Harbaugh.
The question:
Ace: Given the current roster, the schedule, and Harbaugh, what are reasonable expectations for 2015?
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The answers:
Seth: If they do indeed hang on to everybody, particularly Mattison, I think we're looking at a season that starts rough and ends strong. The defense trades Frank Clark and Jake Ryan for another year on everyone else, plus Desmond Morgan and Jabrill Peppers back from injury. They could be awesome. I'm a bit worried about staff gelling—Mattison is as close to a Hanlon assistant as you can get, but he's not going to take a Fred Jackson/emeritus role, and I won't be comfortable until I'm reading stuff about how he and Durkin are best buds having suds.
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| Luck, yeah, but Harbaugh also was hot after RGIII as a recruit. Guy can spot 'em; can he make them is the more immediate question. [photo: getty via SF Examiner] |
On offense I am biased against offensive line coaches who become OCs because DeBord/Terry Malone/Les Miles have convinced me that on the conceptual spectrum of cleverness to manliness they tend to be "execution and toughness" extremists. But as long as Harbaugh's there contributing his special brand of messing with defenses, Drevno can preach the Tao of ass-kicking to his heart's content.
Michigan's biggest question mark is whether their talented but heretofore totally lost quarterback can be fixed in an offseason. That I don't know the answer to, but Harbaugh's on any short list of quarterback gurus who might pull it off.
Harbaugh's offensive leaps are tough to track because he inherited horrible teams at Stanford and San Diego, then rebuilt with his dudes. So the one relevant data point, and indeed all hope for a speedy recovery, is San Francisco. Remember Harbaugh took over in the lockout season so he (and the rest of the league) had barely more than collegiate time to prepare their teams. He then took them to 13-3, in the process turning Alex Smith from a brooding disappointment, to a team leader and efficient guy who doesn't turn it over.
I was already starting to get bullish on the offensive line by OSU. Whether they keep the zone or just parts of it, Michigan has, and paid dearly for, six to seven guys with extensive starting experience, most of whom are due for that big So. to Jr. leap. There are enough bullets in the RB and WR chambers that somethings will hit the target.
Dave Brandon's lasting legacy will be the even-odd schedule dichotomy, but that works out for 2015 at least. With MSU and OSU at home and a manageable Big Ten road schedule there are a lot of ways for Michigan to finish strong next season. Oregon State and maybe Utah will have new coaches (the Utes at least lost their top staff) so who knows what shape any of those teams will be in. BYU should be decent; that offense scares me, especially since several freshmen displaced senior multi-year starters (and ripped Texas 41-7) this year. Expectations are centered on Gator, or whatever 4th place in the Big Ten is these days, but I'm optimistic for a rivalry win and a Citrus Bowl where we wipe some overrated SEC team.
[Jump for Dave Nasternak's long-winded debut]
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Ace: The schedule certainly sets up pretty nicely, though I've been a fan long enough to know a season-opening road game against a Pac-12 team is something to fear, bizarre Utah internal turmoil or no. Add in a transition to a new system and I'd expect at least one loss in non-conference play; BYU will also be a tough test.
Make no mistake, it will very much be a transition. For all Hoke's early MANBALL talk, Michigan was pretty much exclusively a zone run team by the end of his tenure. M wasn't exactly doing a lot pre-snap, either—that's rather difficult when you get to the line with five seconds on the play clock. Running this stuff with the efficacy of Stanford is going to take time:
The good news is the line is experienced and talented, even if that talent hasn't totally come to the forefront yet. By the end of the season, I expect the running game to be good, and for the first time in quite a while I don't feel like such a prediction will make me feel like an idiot down the road. At least one of the backs—whether it be Derrick Green, Ty Isaac, DeVeon Smith, Justice Hayes, a hopefully healthy Drake Johnson, or a true freshman—should get a feel for how to run power and the like. The bigger question will be whether M has enough tight ends who can block to pull off the full Stanford run game; Harbaugh might have to get creative in the early going.
The passing game has a number of question marks, quarterback obviously being the biggest one. Beyond who's throwing the ball, though, we'll have to see if someone emerges as a true #1 target with Devin Funchess off to the NFL early. I'm really hoping Drake Harris can get through a year healthy, because just based on his incredible junior film he's got the biggest upside of any receiver on the roster. That group should at least be solid on the whole, however.
As for the defense, I'm confident the rumored Durkin/Mattison arrangement is going to produce a quality unit, especially since just about everyone is back. Finding a true pass-rushing threat is the top priority, and I think at least one of Charlton/Ojemudia/Marshall can be that guy. There's depth and experience at pretty much every spot, and transitions between coaching staffs rarely—if ever—affect the defense as much as the offense.
With the uncertainty at quarterback, I'd say eight wins—perhaps nine with a bowl win as the team sees steady improvement—is a reasonable expectation. That may not sound great, but I think the fashion in which they acquire those wins—and how close they come in the losses—will be much more encouraging than in years past. 2016 will hopefully be the year in which things really take off.
At the very least, the GIFs posts are going to be amazing.
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David (our back-end operations guy): So, this is super long and maybe not even of 'post-able' quality, but I wanted to push myself to think more and contribute more. So, here are my shoot-from-the-hip thoughts:
It’s very hard for my initial response to not be “HARBAUGH” and only start predicting wins, successes, and various titles. But however possible that actually may be, it does seem rather premature –after all, we still are not certain of position coaches, potential transfers, the recruiting class, or even what devastating injuries will take place (2012: Countess and then Denard; 2013:Bellomy and Ryan; 2014: Butt, kinda…and how long will Drake Johnson be out??).
Starting defensively, it does seem that depth will be on our side at most positions. On top of that, there are many contributors returning, as well –from Henry, Glasgow, and Taco to Bolden, Morgan, and Ross. The corners still are stacked and seem primed to be the best we’ve had in a decade or more, featuring a red-shirted Jabrill Peppers and presumed starter Jourdan Lewis. The worry spot for me on the defense is still at safety. Michigan rotated through at least four starting safeties, last year, and none of them seemed very consistent whether due to injury, performance, or just inexperience.
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| Shane's Minnesota debut was the most discouraging thing Michigan's seen at quarterback since Sheridan's first pass. Of course that was a "this guy just doesn't have the arm" problem, while Morris's was he looked 100% unprepared. If Harbaugh can turn him into something approximating his expectations before Minnesota 2014, it'll be Harbaugh for realz. [Upchurch] |
If the safeties progress to a minimum of average to above average and Michigan can find a playmaker to replace Jake Ryan (possibly Peppers or maybe a Senior Leap from Joe Bolden?), I believe the defense has sky-high potential. If they can hit that mark, though…well, we’ll find out not soon enough.
Offensively speaking, Michigan actually does return a lot of depth (and talent, as well). Unfortunately, the spot where they do not return anything but question marks is at the most important position: quarterback. While plenty of people ripped on Gardner over the last couple of years, he did bring the majority of experience, athleticism, and play-making ability to the huddle –not to mention plenty of GAF. With all of that graduated (and finally some time to personally heal), Michigan is left with 2 starts from a rocket-armed rising Junior, a freshly red-shirted 2nd year Borges recruit, a 5th year backup with a career line of 4/23 for 46 yards and 4 INTs…and then a largely-hyped, yet, True Freshman. That is…not a lot. This, specifically, will be one of HARBAUGH’s most daunting challenges to date.
The rest of the offense has considerably less to worry about. Hoke’s vaunted O-Line recruiting is finally starting to take shape, even with some depth that hasn’t been completely publicly explored. All five starters return after a very solid end to the year with a look towards a bigger leap going into 2015. There are also some potential hidden gems that have only seen some garbage time—Kugler, Dawson, etc.
Despite Funchess now opting for Sunday Football and Drake Johnson potentially still on the mend, Michigan does have decent options at both sets of skill positions. Darboh, Chesson, and Canteen head the WR postion with red-shirted Drake Harris, Moe Ways, and possible WR/TE hybrid Ian Bunting providing more size and deep-threat options. Michigan should also have quite a stable of RB choices, even without Johnson. 5th year senior Justice Hayes should lead Juniors Green and Smith, while RS Soph USC transfer Ty Isaac joins the fold. The odds of 1+ of this group having a breakout season should be relatively high. Throw in TE Jake Butt (possibly Khalid Hill), FBs Joe Kerridge and Sione Houma and all-around Nuclear Weapon Dennis Norfleet, Michigan should have solid options at most non-QB positions.
The 2015 schedule also is somewhat favorable to Michigan. None of the five road games screams guaranteed loss. While Opening Night in Salt Lake City is probably not an ideal place to start the HARBAUGH Era, the Utes are an organizational mess, right now, and it is unclear who will even actually be on the coaching staff…or team for that matter. Perhaps the toughest road game will be in Minneapolis (?!?!?!). A trip to State College beckons, as well…many unfortunate events unfolded the last time Michigan ventured there. However, Michigan will host MSU and OSU for the first time since…I honestly don’t even know. BYU comes to town, too. Overall, I don’t think there is a “can’t win” game on the schedule, but with who-knows at QB, suspect safety play, and still many off-season unknowns and transitions ahead, I can’t see Michigan escaping without 3-4 losses. Perhaps, the ceiling is a little higher than that, but it would still be a big ask, even for HARBAUGH.
One thing I am very certain of, for the first time in a loooooooong time, I am confident that there will be very few things that this Michigan team won’t be well-prepared and well-coached to Harbaugh…er, handle.
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Brian:
FEBRUARY 2014: Braxton Miller transfers to Michigan.
MARCH: Cardale Jones and JT Barrett also transfer to Michigan.
APRIL: Urban Meyer retires citing strain, goes on to outstanding test cricket career.
MAY: Seventeen five stars commit to Michigan on one weekend. Also a kicker.
JUNE: Mark Dantonio is arrested after murdering a fifth journalist who asks him about Harbaugh.
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| Dantonio avoided a life sentence when federal prosecutors were not prepared for his innovative "Quarters" defense. He was, however, given two months for contempt of court for not complying with the judge's orders to stop scowling at the witnesses. [photo: Fuller, from production of an upcoming episode of the History Channel's Prison Gangs] |
JULY: Art Fair is hot again.
AUGUST: Dantonio released, immediately returns to practice.
SEPTEMBER: Michigan defeats its non-conference opponents by a cumulative score of 450-2. BYU and Oregon State disband their football teams.
OCTOBER: Michigan wins all games by forfeit.
NOVEMBER: With Ohio State the last thing standing between Michigan and total hegemony, all of the teams who forfeited band together behind the Buckeyes. Citing obscure Big Ten bylaws, Ohio State is allowed to play 22 people at a time as long as half of them are wearing silly hats. Michigan wins, 1000-0.
DECEMBER: A nation trembles in fear as Michigan begins bowl practices that can be heard from sea to shining sea. Most Michigan players have reached mythical proportions. Kicker Andrew David, the smallest remaining Wolverine, is eleven feet tall and five hundred pounds.
JANUARY 2015: A selection of all-star teams descends on the Michigan camp before the allotted start of the game, bearing a series of improvised explosive devices and several AK47s. They are utterly routed and never heard from again. In the distant future a sheet of glass containing the souls of several thousand football players is found in deep space. When accidentally released, they ask to go back in the glass.
FEBRUARY 2015: Michigan wins the Superbowl by staring down the entire NFL until they explode into flame and melt.
MARCH 2015: NFL reporters note the Raiders are still in play.
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Mathlete: I agree with all of this from Brian, but if Harbaugh can go back in time, let's go back to at least 2008.
