Michigan won this game, I believe (source)

Your Weekly B1G Hoops Column

*[I failed to post the draft correctly yesterday and I wasn’t able to correct it while traveling. My apologies. None of this data should be dated much. Nebraska has not yet played Hawaii at the time of my submission early Tuesday morning EST – Alex]

Table of Contents:

1. Team’s don’t change much during conference play
2. Hopeful precedent? (Battle!)
3. But Beilein?
4. Hoops (and not NBA hoops) over Christmas
5. Talkin’ bout the Shockers
6. Key B1G wins in the past week
7. Saturday was a bad day
8. A SPECIAL SHOUT-OUT TO MICHIGAN STATE
9. Best and worst losses thus far
10. Poll: which team is second-best in the B1G?

1. Teams don’t change much during conference play

In data provided to me by From the Barn’s Jonathan Foster, there’s generally insignificant differences between the Kenpom rank of a team after non-conference play and that same team’s rank at the end of the season. The data only covers the last four seasons, but a team is twice as likely to have a change from –19 < [rank] < +10 than it is to worsen by more than nineteen or improve by more than ten, rank-wise:

This bodes poorly for Michigan and similarly floundering teams – Pomeroy’s rankings attempt to assess the objective quality of a team (not its potential, nor how good its resume is) and, according to this data, right now, that metric – his “pythag” rating – is usually within range of how good a team winds up being over the course of the season. As the scatterplots below show, the highest change in ranking comes from very bad teams:

Click image to enlarge

Sample size caveats apply, but I’d hazard a guess that this group of teams is generally representative of an intuitive hypothesis: teams don’t became far better or far worse (statistically speaking) after December. Or perhaps better stated: teams don’t (or can’t) prove that they’re far better or far worse after December.

2. Hopeful precedent? (Battle!)

Foster gave me the conference-wide data from 2011-2014; in that time, only Penn State (2011) managed to accomplish something Michigan will find itself hoping to do – rise from roughly the 75th-best team in Kenpom to eventually make the NCAA Tournament.

That Penn State team’s non-conference season was quite similar to Michigan’s past few weeks. The Nittany Lions lost two home games – one to a mediocre Maryland outfit by 23 points, one to a dreadfully bad Maine team that finished ranked 209th in Kenpom. Additionally, Penn State lost road contests to Ole Miss and Virginia Tech, neither of which were particularly good squads. Their best win in non-conference play was a narrow home win over #60 Duquesne; they rode a 9-9 conference record, two wins over a great Wisconsin team, and three wins in the Big Ten Tournament to a bid as a ten-seed. The Big Ten was the best conference in the country that year.

Mid-season ranking data only goes back to 2011 on Pomeroy’s site. I checked from 2005-2010 and there were only a few potentially analogous situations: in 2007, Purdue lost two tough non-conference games and dropped a bad one (to #150 Indiana State on the road) and lost to #170 Minnesota to open Big Ten play – they recovered to be a nine-seed; in 2005, Minnesota lost to two top-20 outfits and lost at home to #97 Florida State in the span of less than a week – they finished non-conference play at 10-3 and were an eight-seed.

Penn State 2011 might be the best blueprint for Michigan to follow. It was Talor Battle’s senior year* and Jeff Brooks, Andrew Jones, and sophomore Tim Frazier formed a potent (by PSU standards) nucleus: they had a terrible non-conference season but were consistent enough in Big Ten play – winning the games they absolutely had to win – notched a few notable wins, both against Wisconsin, and did quite well in the Big Ten Tournament to sneak into the NCAA Tourney.

Since the conference is weaker now, I’d say Michigan might need 10 or 11 wins (and a Big Ten Tournament win), depending on who they win or lose to, to be right on the edge of the bubble. Right now, Pomeroy projects just 8 conference wins. Blerg.

In any case, improving to the point where the bubble is a legitimate discussion is objectively unlikely.

*Talor Battle was one of my favorite non-Michigan Big Ten players in recent memory. He was like a prelude to Trey Burke: undersized do-it-all point guard whose high usage was excused by a stellar assist rate. Trey was obviously better, but it was certainly something to watch Battle drag his teammates along and elevate their play in front of a seemingly indifferent PSU fanbase. Something impressive and tragic in that. Anyways, I digress.

[AFTER THE JUMP: … But Beilein? and other non-Michigan stuff, of course]

3. But Beilein?

Bryan Fuller / MGoBlog

Maize n Brew’s Drew Hallett passed this along to me and, yes, there is proof that Beilein teams generally improve over the course of the season (some empirical proof that runs parallel to the “well, they aren’t that great now, but look out for that Izzo team come March!” narrative in East Lansing). This article is from December last year:

If you are looking for a coach whose team typically does get better later in the year, look no further than Michigan head coach John Beilein. In 8 of the last 10 seasons and for six straight years, Beilein’s teams have seen their Pyth. Winning Percentage improve after the opening two months.

Michigan has been extremely underwhelming in its marquee games this year. But in the past John Beilein has been able to solve his team’s weaknesses, and based on his track record, it is fair to expect significant improvement.

Of course, that Michigan team rebounded from a lackadaisical non-conference showing to torch the Big Ten en route to a runaway conference title and eventual two-seed in the NCAA Tournament. To expect that again is nonsense.

It’s reasonable to assume that, with a young team, Michigan is bound to improve. The current coaching staff has earned the benefit of the doubt – that’s another point in Michigan’s favor. Still, there’s a ways to go. Michigan doesn’t just need to improve, they need to improve a lot. Right now, in Kenpom, Michigan is #75 nationally; in Sagarin, they’re #125 – 12th in the Big Ten.

The offense actually grades out worse than the defense, which is paradoxically a positive: I trust that Beilein – an offensive whiz – will fix the offense more than I trust him to fix the defense. There’s plenty of room for improvement – the big men have the dual problem of not setting screens properly and failing to move decisively after them; the shooters aren’t shooting well (which will regress to the mean over time); guards and wings aren’t getting enough looks at the rim. Whatever the problems, they need to be fixed soon; Michigan needs to put down the shovel and stop digging a hole that’s looking more insurmountable with each successive loss.

4. Hoops (and not NBA hoops) over Christmas

If you’re not into NBA hoops – I am, but that’s something that’s neither here nor there – there are a few college basketball games around Christmas: The Diamond Head Classic takes place on the 22nd, the 23rd, and the 25th and features Nebraska, who’s fell short of expectations thus far this season.

The Huskers won’t be home for Christmas...

Huskers N Hawaii #gbrpic.twitter.com/EtbTcgeFTi

— Ali Farokhmanesh (@farokhmanesh5) December 21, 2014

...but I don't feel bad for them.

It's a weird field – there are eight teams: one is a top-ten type team (Wichita State), three are rather weak major-conference teams, and four are pretty much non-conference cupcake caliber. Nebraska draws the hosts, Hawaii, and then these are their chances of facing any two of the other six teams:

Aside from Wisconsin’s game at Cal tonight [Ed: Wisconsin won] and a neutral site matchup between Indiana and Georgetown later this week, these games might be the Big Ten’s last significant non-conference matchups before conference play starts. Facing Wichita State – a game with no downside in case of a loss (but with obvious potential benefit) – is contingent on Nebraska beating Hawaii.

The ‘Bows rank 193rd in Sagarin and 194th in Kenpom; Nebraska shouldn’t have much of a problem with them. It’s easy to foresee Nebraska’s stingy defense suffocating a feeble Hawaii offense, and the Huskers should manage enough points between Terran Petteway and Shavon Shields to win comfortably.

5. Talkin’ bout the Shockers

Wichita State exists as a possible resume win for Nebraska – the Huskers’ current record isn’t great (any benefit from a home win against Cincinnati is erased, and then some, by home losses to Creighton and Incarnate Word) and, even though the computers don’t view them favorably – 82nd in Kenpom and 93rd in Sagarin – they’re close to the same team that mounted a surprise run to the NCAA Tournament a year ago.

Assuming a win against Hawaii, Nebraska would likely face Wichita State and, using Ken Pomeroy’s methodology, would only have a 9% chance of winning. Though the Shockers lost standout combo forward Cleanthony Early from last year’s undefeated regular-season squad (Early is now a teammate of Tim Hardaway’s on the Knicks), they return Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker, possibly the best backcourt in all of college hoops.

Credit goes to their awesome, traditional uniform (source)

At this point, Wichita State has to be the premier mid-major in the country – they’re the myth of Gonzaga and they’re probably in a better three-year stretch than Gonzaga’s ever had (though the Bulldogs are great this year). They’ve played the part of a major program in the wrong clothes – they aren’t a stereotypical overachieving underdog that relies on guile and three-point shooting: the Shockers are athletic, well-run by the steady VanVleet, and capable of standing toe-to-toe with nearly anyone. It would be a big test for Nebraska.

Data from Kenpom.com

A potential upset would be reliant on Nebraska’s offense and unfortunately, it seems as if their weaknesses overlap with the Shockers’ strengths:

• Wichita State forces turnovers on 23.8% of opponents’ possessions (30th nationally) and Nebraska’s turnover rate is 21.5% – 260th nationally.
• WSU’s defensive rebounding rate ranks 22nd nationally, Nebraska’s offensive rebounding rate is 259th.
• Tekele Cotton is one of the best individual stoppers in college basketball; he should be able to leverage Terran Petteway into another high-volume, low-efficiency performance. Petteway will shoot regardless of outside circumstance, but Cotton would affect those shots.

A win here would be great for Nebraska’s NCAA Tournament hopes, but it looks unlikely.

6. Key B1G wins in the past week

A few thoughts:

• Aside from that home loss to E. Washington, Indiana has looked pretty decent this season. This game from Troy Williams was a welcome sign of his development – with his athleticism, he should be able to affect the game in most every statistical category. Butler isn’t an elite team by any stretch, but they’re pretty defense and it was nice to see the Hoosier defense turn in a good performance against quality opposition.
• Maryland may quietly be the second-best team in the Big Ten; even though they’ve been playing without Dez Wells and even though they’re breaking in a mostly new roster, the Terps have put together some very solid wins and their only loss comes against an excellent Virginia squad. Between precocious star freshman Melo Trimble, standout forward Jake Layman, and Wells, Maryland has plenty of talent and could be a darkhorse contender for a Big Ten title in their first year in the league. Beating Oklahoma State on the road was very impressive.

7. Saturday was a bad day

…but today was a good day (NSFW lyrics)

A few thoughts:

• Iowa’s loss to Northern Iowa was the ugliest loss of the day aesthetically speaking, but the Panthers are quite good this year and their only loss came in double OT on the road against VCU. Still, the type of loss is concerning: Iowa’s terrible shooting from the field wasn’t mitigated by their normally excellent ability to get points from the free throw line – as a result, their offense totally stagnated and put in their worst performance this year. The transformation from an offense-first, defense-second team to the inverse is complete.
• Purdue got its doors blown off at a neutral site against Notre Dame, which isn’t exactly the end of the world. The Irish are simply on a different tier than the Boilermakers – who are a hard team to assess right now – but if Purdue is an NCAA-caliber team, they definitely didn’t show it against Notre Dame on either end of the floor. As a perfect microcosm of the game, point guard Demetrius Jackson posterized 7’2 Isaac Haas.
• Michigan again played well enough defensively to win, but their offense completely failed again. It’s not often that a team takes a full two-thirds of its shots from behind the arc and even though it felt like the Wolverines were getting good looks, they missed 28 of 36 three-point attempts. Michigan’s now just 34.6% from behind the arc this season – in the past two years, that number was 40.2% and 37.9%. If Michigan keeps taking this many threes, they clearly have to start making them.
• Ohio State lost to North Carolina in a largely unsuspenseful game that doesn’t really say much about the Buckeyes: UNC is a team that can dominate on the interior unlike any Big Ten team, and did so against Ohio State. The Buckeyes will conclude non-conference play at 0-for-2 in games with much significance – a home win over a very mediocre Marquette team stands as OSU’s best result; they lost at Louisville and to North Carolina in Chicago.

8. A SPECIAL SHOUT-OUT TO MICHIGAN STATE

Oh, you lost to NJIT? ANYTHING YOU CAN DO WE CAN DO BETTER (source)

Entering this game, Texas Southern – then 1-8 and ranked 283rd nationally by Kenpom – had a 2% chance of winning. Mike Davis, who had never won in East Lansing during his stint at Indiana, pulled off the gigantic upset as TSU prevailed in overtime over Michigan State.

I don’t think that it tells us a whole lot about Michigan State – the chances that Texas Southern shoots an effective FG% of 57.4 is incredibly slim (much like NJIT’s shooting performance was an anomaly). State had been the best three-point shooting team in the country entering this game; the Spartans just shot 4-of-21 from outside the arc against TSU on mostly good looks. This loss in and of itself isn’t a glaring indictment on Michigan State’s quality overall: State is still ranked 20th by Kenpom and 24th by Sagarin.

The biggest point is that MSU’s resume is severely lacking now. Much like Ohio State, the Spartans only had a few chances at solid non-conference wins – against Duke, Kansas, and at Notre Dame – and they lost all of them; like Ohio State, their best win is a victory over Marquette (106th in Kenpom, 84th in Sagarin). This loss will be a huge anchor on their record without a few very good wins to balance it out – State isn’t in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament if it does as well as it should in conference play, but with a few more bad losses, the Spartans could really be concerned come Selection Sunday.

Misery loves company, Spartan bros.

9. Best and worst losses thus far

Rankings via Kenpom

The NJIT loss is still the worst. By a lot. NJIT is much worse than a SWAC team that’s 2-8. I THOUGHT BASKETBALL WAS SUPPOSED TO BE FUN.

10. Poll: which team is second-best in the B1G?

For something I’m working on for next week: