I’ve been watching The Wire – I’m through Season 3, Episode 6. Won’t be writing about this D’Angelo though. (source)
Your weekly B1G Hoops column
Table of Contents:
- D’Angelo Russell player similarities
- James Blackmon player similarities
- Melo Trimble player similarities
- The Big Ten is weaker than usual
- Ugly losses: not just for football!
- Michigan missing NCAA Tournament: DEFCON 3
- We aren’t the only ones to lose to good teams
- Trending up, trending down
- Other player comparisons, by request
- Early frontrunner for most B1G game of the year
1. D’Angelo Russell player similarities
Over the summer, I devised a system by which current players and their statistical profiles can be cross-referenced against a database of former Big Ten players (from 2008-2014) to find the most similar players. The “Similarity Score” system uses the difference between the z-scores of each statistical category (weighted equally), adds up the absolute value of those differences, and the players with the smallest Similarity Score number are the most analogous players – statistically speaking.
A few caveats: it is early in the season and the quality of opposition hasn’t been great, so some of these names might be a little too complimentary for the players listed; this isn’t a comparison of playing style or even listed position – the numbers are blind to all of that; these guys aren’t necessarily “as good as” the players listed below them – they’re just the closest out of the sample of Big Ten players over the last seven years. Every statistical system has drawbacks and this is no different, but it does provide an interesting jumping-off point for discussion and it definitely has some merit.
Click on image to enlarge. Top comps, in order: Trey Burke (2013), Gary Harris (2014), Jake Kelly (2009), Bo Spencer (2012), E’Twaun Moore (2011), Andre Hollins (2013), John Shurna (2012), Demetri McCamey (2011)
D’ANGELO RUSSELL IS NOT TREY BURKE. I’M NOT SAYING THAT. PLEASE DON’T ACCUSE ME OF SAYING THAT.
…but, against a terrible schedule, D’Angelo Russell has been absolutely superb. Maybe not Trey Burke superb, but pretty damn close if not. Even against Louisville – by far the best team that Ohio State’s faced thus far – he put up 17 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals (with 4 turnovers on rather inefficient shooting). There have been many impressive parts of his game – the steal rate bodes well for a potential NBA future, but nothing stands out to me more than his assist rate of 32.2 (5.4 assists per game).
Incredibly, he’s more efficient and has a higher usage than the names listed above (except for Trey Burke, with whom he’s on par). Again, he has only played one Kenpom Top-100 team, but that’s very impressive regardless.
Right now, everything suggests that Russell is a one-and-done talent. He stuffs the stat-sheet from the two-guard position with points, rebounds, assists, and steals; his tempo-free numbers are bound to regress against better competition, but Russell’s done everything that could be asked of him thus far. He hits threes – 20 of 46 for a nice 43.5% – and, at six-foot-five, he has size for the two-guard position in the league. Ohio State’s had plenty of NBA players under Thad Matta and, at least so far, it looks like Russell will be another one.
Also, another D’Angelo released a new album that’s pretty solid. [Ed-Ace: "Pretty solid" is a disturbing understatement, young buck.] [Ed-Alex: This is just the first step in truly refining my musical tastes.]
2. James Blackmon player similarities
Click on image to enlarge. Top comps, in order: Nik Stauskas (2014), Deshaun Thomas (2013), Jon Shurna (2011), Drew Crawford (2012), Tim Hardaway (2011), John Shurna (2010), Matt Gatens (2012), Deshaun Thomas (2012)
Another five-star, another standout freshman. Blackmon isn’t quite as well-rounded as Russell and probably isn’t as sure of a pro, but he’s been terrific for Indiana thus far this season. According to Pomeroy, the Hoosiers have the ninth-best offense (and 174th-best defense) nationally and the backcourt of Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon could stack up against nearly any other in college basketball – size (and, by extension, defense) is really the only major issue.
Like Russell, Blackmon’s blend of efficiency and usage is unsustainable, but absolutely excellent thus far. His shooting splits are fantastic: 53% on twos, 46% on threes, and 88% from the free throw line. Per data from Shot Analytics, he’s only taken 17 midrange shots – out of 130 total (13%) – which speaks to his shot selection and ability to get to the rim, where he finishes well.
Nik Stauskas isn’t a perfect comparison for Blackmon, but there’s a lot in common: both are very efficient shooters who have fairly similar shooting splits. Stauskas was a much better distributor and got to the free throw line more (while Blackmon’s a better rebounder). Deshaun Thomas is another intriguing statistical profile: Thomas is much taller than Blackmon and played as a stretch-four, but they’re the same type of remorseless gunner that has a high shot attempts to assists ratio. Blackmon shoots at a higher percentage however.
I know I have to mention it: arghhh Michigan could have used Blackmon this season.
[AFTER THE JUMP: more numbers (obviously); STOP LOSING EVERYBODY; stuff on Michigan]
3. Melo Trimble player similarities
Click on image to enlarge. Top comps, in order: Eric Gordon (2008), Nik Stauskas (2014), Jordan Hulls (2011), Jordan Hulls (2012), Matt Gatens (2012), Andre Hollins (2013), Derrick Walton (2014), John Shurna (2011)
Trimble is the most statistically distinct of the three freshmen profiled here, and that may be explained due to sample size issues: right now, Trimble has an astronomical free throw rate (and a stellar percentage from the stripe to go with) and it’s simply unsustainable:
Trimble’s free throw rate is currently at 104.8, good for seventh nationally. Besides Eric Gordon – an elite high school recruit, a surefire one-and-done who was taken in the lottery – all of those guys are big men (and jumbo wing Aaron White); Trimble is a point guard who can’t keep up with this insane ability to get to the free throw stripe.
Still, Trimble has been very good for Maryland (as evidenced by the Eric Gordon comparison, which, again, the level of competition hasn’t been that great so far this season). From an excellent Testudo Times article from last week:
Just 10 games into his career, Trimble is entrenched as Maryland's most indispensable player. Then again, that might have been the case even before this career-jumpstarting run. His path toward this point wasn't as long as expected, but he's absolutely here now. As the key player on the nation's No. 19 team, he has reason to feel upbeat.
Even with senior star Dez Wells out with an injury, Maryland has played well – mostly due to Trimble, who has exceeded expectations even as a blue-chip incomer. The Big Ten has plenty of freshmen who will eventually play a role come conference play, but as these statistical profiles (and the ones most similar to them) indicate, Russell, Blackmon, and Trimble will be at the forefront as star players.
4. The Big Ten is weaker than usual
Like Michigan, Nebraska has been a disappointment (source)
It was bound to happen eventually – the Big Ten has fallen from its perch as the best conference in college basketball. That’s not to say that there won’t be competitive, high-level games in conference play, but the teams just simply won’t be as good.
For the first time in the past few years, there’s only one legitimate national title contender – Wisconsin – which has impressed so far outside of a home loss to a hot-shooting Duke team; usually there are several teams who could conceivably win the conference – I’d take Wisconsin against the field (even though OSU and MSU have an outside shot).
Michigan and Nebraska’s regressions have been a big storyline: neither team is currently in the Kenpom Top-50 and each have hideous home losses as black marks on their resume: NJIT and Incarnate Word respectively. Both had winning records in conference play last year and neither are projected to this year by Pomeroy’s system. Michigan’s step back has been jarring, though after the exodus of NBA talent, it’s hard to say that a worse team was unlikely. Nebraska returned almost everybody and haven’t played well this year – the dirty secret was that they weren’t that great last season and their offense is horribly and potentially fatally flawed.
As for the second tier – outside of Michigan State and Ohio State, who have looked fine but don’t have any good wins between them – Illinois was a pleasant surprise, but lost to Oregon at home; Minnesota has been average and unspectacular; Iowa won on the road against a maybe-not-very-good UNC team and hasn’t done much else; Maryland might be the second-best team in the league – they’ve been okay without Dez Wells.
At least Penn State is 10-1. Don’t check who they’ve played.
5. Ugly losses: not just for football!
I wrote about the Eastern loss and some of Michigan’s general problems before the Arizona game, and that post is still relevant:
Eastern’s 2-3 leveraged Michigan into 33 jump shots and the Wolverines only scored 18 points on those. A poor shooting performance like that is extremely uncharacteristic for Michigan, but there are two issues: Michigan should have been able to get to the rim much more easily, and Eastern forced Michigan into taking tough shots all game. It’s not a quantifiable metric, but it seemed as if the zone made U of M’s offense devolve into hapless passing around the zone that led to either a turnover or a bad shot attempt.
The performance on the offensive glass was especially disappointing: the 2-3 is susceptible to giving up offensive boards – though Eastern’s decent on the defensive glass – but Michigan had to play Albrecht / Walton / LeVert / Irvin / [insert big man]. It’s a lineup that won’t ever be able to exploit that particular weakness.
Michigan’s complete ineptitude against Eastern’s 2-3 was baffling – the Wolverines did well enough against Syracuse, who wrote the book on how to run the 2-3 as a staple defense in college basketball. At least nobody in the Big Ten runs it as well as even Eastern does. The defense was fine against the Eagles. The offense was not.
As for Nebraska, they followed the lose-to-the-199th-best-team-in-Kenpom blueprint beautifully: they settled for a lot of midrange shots and predictably missed, they were cold from three, and Incarnate Word hit on the jump-shot lottery with an abnormally solid shooting performance. Add in a negligible difference in the amount of shooting possessions, not even Nebraska’s free throw-reliant offense could save them.
The Huskers led by five with 33 seconds left and lost in regulation. I’m not even sure how that’s possible.
Wow. Check ESPN’s play-by-play for the details. Oh, and guess which state is home to Incarnate Word. I had no idea.*
Nebraska is pretty much in the same boat as Michigan, though the odds of a resurgence on the offensive end seem quite slimmer in Lincoln. Still, both teams need to turn things around fast; they have the talent to make the NCAA Tournament (we don’t know for sure about Michigan – though they almost certainly do – and Nebraska made it last year with almost the same exact team), it’s just that neither can afford many more serious hits to the resume before they have to really overachieve in conference play to make it in.
*It’s Texas.
6. Michigan missing NCAA Tournament: DEFCON 3
As opposed to DEFCON 1 – “we need to win the conference tournament or we have no shot,” and DEFCON 5 – “I’m just checking what seed line we’re on, we’re already in.”
In the eyes of the committee, Michigan sits at 5-4. Wins against Oregon at a neutral site and Syracuse at home are decent, not great; losses to Arizona on the road and Villanova at a neutral site are perfectly fine; losses at home to NJIT and Eastern are really, really bad. At this point, Michigan can’t afford to be mediocre for much longer, lest they risk digging themselves into a serious hole that might be quite difficult to get out of.
A neutral party (Basketball Predict) gave me a good perspective on Michigan’s current situation:
The NJIT game had fluky shooting (NJIT shot 11-for-17 on threes) while Michigan couldn't hit anything against Eastern Michigan (4-for-21 on threes). And this was just an everything-that-could-go-wrong-went-wrong game against Arizona. Is it reasonable to think Michigan is going to see performances like this the rest of the season? I don't think so. They looked fine early in the season beating teams like Oregon and Syracuse, and preseason projections based on who they lost and who they added suggested that they were a borderline Top 25 team. The odds are that their level of performance will regress back to the mean. But obviously that regression has to come before the Wolverines dig too deep of a hole.
Right now, I’m not sure about whether or not Michigan will make the tournament or not. Jeff currently has them in as a 10-seed– unlike other “bracketologists,” he projects the bracket based on what a team’s probable resume will be, not what the tournament would look like today if the rest of the regular season got cancelled or whatever.
I guess I’d put the odds at 60/40 that Michigan gets in? This non-conference season as a whole has been disappointing – and more pertinently, more harmful to an NCAA Tournament resume – and the consensus preseason projection of the Wolverines in the 20-30 range nationally might have been a tad high, to be honest. Still, Michigan is much better than they’ve shown recently and a few wins to close out the non-conference season to head into a relatively soft Big Ten slate early on would do wonders, perception- and resume-wise.
7. We aren’t the only ones to lose to good teams
Since my last column (on Tuesday afternoon), these games have happened:
- Villanova (sixth on Kenpom) 73, Illinois 59: Michigan kept it closer in a NYC neutral-site game against Villanova than Illinois did? The game was within one score with about seven minutes left but the Wildcats pulled away and the score belied how close the game was.
- Louisville (fifth on Kenpom) 94, Indiana 74: Indiana actually kept this one close for longer than I thought they would, but they eventually succumbed to Louisville’s brand of relentlessly aggressive basketball. James Blackmon had 18 points, but they came on 20 shot equivalents. Against one of the best defenses in the country, that’s sort of a win.
- Iowa State (18th on Kenpom) 90, Iowa 75: The Hawkeyes were at home and ISU was without one of its best players – Bryce Dejean-Jones – but they made 12 threes and five Cyclones scored at least 13 points. The game was pretty much over after a 21-2 Iowa State run to open the second half.
- Arizona (seventh on Kenpom) 80, Michigan 53: not really a whole lot to say about this one – we took it in the chin; when it rains, it pours; stop it, we’re already dead, etc.
Illinois also lost at home to Oregon, which wasn’t great – not an incredible drag on the resume but definitely a game that the Illini should have won; Purdue lost on the road to Vanderbilt and will probably wind up with a similar non-conference profile to Michigan (a few decent wins, losses that are not good to have on the record).
Simply put: it’s not just us.
8. Trending up, trending down
Purdue(!?) may be the most improved team in the league thus far (source)
It’s early, but it’s worth taking a look how teams stand in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency – even though preseason projections still have influence on the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies.
Michigan has fallen from second to tenth. Brace yourself for this next chart.
The five biggest individual offensive or defensive swings, in descending order:
- Michigan’s offense (worsened by 17.5 points per 100 possessions) – it turns out that replacing Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson, Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, and (sorta) Mitch McGary really hurts a team’s offense. Much has been and will be discussed about this, but the biggest thing to me is that Michigan needs to do far better with the distribution of their shots – they need to get to the rim and the free throw line much more.
- Iowa’s offense (worsened by 14.6 points per 100 possessions) – Iowa also lost their leading scorer and best player – Roy Devyn Marble – and their offense is also struggling relative to last year. It’s comprehensive: the Hawkeyes aren’t hitting threes, aren’t getting to the free throw line as often as last year, and they’re turning the ball over more…
- Iowa’s defense (improved by 11.2 points per 100 possessions) – …but any regression on the offensive end is met with a corresponding improvement on the defensive end. Iowa’s effective FG% defense, 2-point FG%, and 3-point FG% are all the best in the Big Ten. 3-point defense is largely random, so that will even out some, but Iowa has the makings of a really good defensive team.
- Minnesota’s defense (improved by 9.5 points per 100 possessions) – like Iowa, Minnesota’s defensive numbers may be somewhat inflated by a weak schedule, but the Gophers are currently third in the nation in forcing turnovers and Richard Pitino seems to have established his father’s characteristically aggressive defenses in Minneapolis. Carlos Morris’s steal rate is top 50 nationally, Deandre Mathieu is top 100, and Nate Mason is top 150.
- Wisconsin’s defense (improved by 9.3 points per 100 possessions) – The Badgers had an atypically average defense last year and Bo Ryan’s pack-line is looking much better this season (save for getting scorched by an elite Duke team). This number might fall with tougher competition ahead, but an added year of cohesiveness appears to have paid dividends for Wisconsin.
9. Other player comparisons, by request
Remember, caveats about the sample size and the level of competition thus far do apply
I earnestly bugged my twitter followers to give me some names, and here they are, presented without comment (because this post is already really long):
10. Early frontrunner for most B1G game of the year
Big Life, Big Stage, Big Rebounds (source)
While I doubt that any game will surpass the legendary 36-33 Big Ten Tournament game between Penn State and Wisconsin, we can still hope to see the most hideous, unaesthetic basketball possible in this glorious conference (some would call that type of ball “blue-collar” or “tough” but I’ll call a spade a spade). The earliest submission – a game that I unfortunately could not catch live – was a non-conference game: two teams known for defense lived up to their billing and then some in a thrilling 55-54 double-overtime win for Nebraska over Cincinnati.
Seriously, both of these teams are classic grit-and-grind teams that win with defense and rebounding – Nebraska has Terran Petteway to do his best Kobe impression, Cincinnati had Sean Kilpatrick do the same over the last few years. 55-54 isn’t a terrible score-line, but for a game that went 50 minutes…
Woof. The two teams actually combined for a worse efficiency mark (0.74) than that Penn State – Wisconsin slog (0.78). A few interesting stats:
- The two teams combined for 7 three-point makes on 31 combined attempts (22%).
- Amazingly, they combined for 8 made mid-range jumpers on 39 attempts (21%).
- Nebraska made 16 field goals total.
- Nebraska had 22 turnovers.
- Nebraska had 3 assists.
- AS A TEAM. NEBRASKA ONLY HAD THREE ASSISTS.
- Cincinnati had more made field goals (20) than turnovers (15)! But they had more personal fouls (21).
- Cincinnati shot 50% on 24 free throw attempts. They lost by one point in double OT.
- Three players from both teams combined (Terran Petteway, Shavon Shields, and Troy Caupain) each had 13 points. They were the only scorers with double figures. This was a 50-minute game.
BEE – ONE – GEE. BEE – ONE – GEE… and AY – AY – SEE, I guess.