Preview: Arizona

META: I'm baaaaaaack. Here's what I know so far; while it's not quite a full diagnosis, like Seth suggested, it's all very good news. I underwent a colonoscopy/endoscopy on Wednesday morning, and while I'm still awaiting the results of the accompanying biopsy, all they found initially was a hiatal hernia and an ulcer—this should rule out Crohn's Disease. I've got a CT scan scheduled for next week just to cover all the bases.

My appointment with an endocrinologist and subsequent testing Wednesday afternoon revealed the really good news: I tested positive for adrenal insufficiency, which explains my litany of symptoms. It's most likely primary adrenal insufficiency (Addison's Disease) as opposed to secondary (driven by the pituitary gland); I've already started treatment with hydrocortisone, which should start helping very soon. The next step is to confirm that it's Addison's Disease—I'm awaiting test results on that—and see a rheumatologist, since the vast majority of the time an autoimmune issue of some sort is the cause of this. I also have a follow-up appointment with my endocrinologist next week. The doctors at St. Joe's have done a remarkable job; after ten years of searching, this is a massive breakthrough.

Thank you so much to everyone who's reached out to me over the last week; I'm incredibly fortunate to have the support of such a strong community, and it helped my spirits more than I can possibly convey. Now, let's talk basketball...

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: The last week or so.

THE HELL IS GOING ON

I mean, seriously.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. %Min and %Poss figure are from this season now—yes, there will be a fair amount of noise in these numbers for a while. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open.

*returning starter

THE RESUME

Arizona is off to an undefeated start that includes three wins over KenPom top-100 opponents, though all of those games were close: four points over #78 Kansas State (neutral site), two points over #23 San Diego State (neutral), and a three-point comeback win in overtime at home over #10 Gonzaga. They've blown out everyone else on the schedule, including #110 UC Irvine and #149 Mizzou.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Arizona lost two of the best players in college basketball last year in Nick Johnson and Aaron Gordon, and while they've taken a very small step back, they're still one of the elite teams in the country. They're big and skilled, have a quality eight-man rotation with the ability to dig deeper into their bench, and there's not much they don't do well. Needless to say, this is a hell of a first true road game for Michigan.

TJ McConnell returns as the starting point guard, taking on a larger role with the departure of Johnson, who often initiated the offense. You're going to hear him described as some variation of scrappy/gritty/lunchpail-guy, and for good reason; he's got a top-15 steal rate nationally, hits the defensive boards, and dishes out a ton of assists. His previously-good shooting numbers have taken a significant dip this year (43/30/75 2P%/3P%/FT%), but he still makes this team go with his excellent offensive distributing and strong defense.

A couple of three-point gunners take most of the minutes at the two. Gabe York is the starter; he's shooting 32% from deep, hitting a decent percentage of midrange shots, and rarely working his way to the rim—he hit 39% of his threes last year, so he's likely a better shooter than what he's shown this season. Backup Elliott Pitts, on the other hand, has been on a season-long tear, knocking down 10/19 triples; he's only taken six shots inside the arc, making two.

Wing Stanley Johnson was the consensus #3 overall recruit in the country and a bona-fide early entry candidate, and so far he's lived up to the billing. He's boasting a 50/39/71 shooting split while getting to the line at a very high rate; his only shooting weakness has been around the basket, where he's making just 48% of his attempts, per hoop-math—his ability to draw fouls offsets that deficiency quite a bit. He's posting very strong rebounding rates on both ends of the floor and has been a disruptive defender with a top-200 steal rate. Staying in front of Johnson is going to be a big test for a Michigan perimeter defense that has recently been porous.

Brandon Ashley had a huge game in Arizona's victory at Crisler last year; he's a very good post finisher who can also knock down jumpers all the way out to three-point range, though he rarely roams that far away from the hoop. He also gets to the line quite often and converts at a 69% clip. Ashley is a bit turnover-prone, as is...

Seven-footer Kaleb Tarczewski, who's a little like a super-sized Jordan Morgan—he shoots a very high percentage (61%), mostly on easy looks created by his teammates. He does have a little bit of a post game, and his size will pose problems on both ends of the court, though his defensive rebounding and block rates are somewhat surprisingly low for a guy of his stature. Against Michigan's big men, he'll be tough to handle; expect Michigan to double the post quite a bit this game to try to get Ashley and Tarczewski to cough the ball up before they can go to work.

Arizona may have the best sixth man in the country, though uber-athletic forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson essentially plays starter's minutes; he's second on the team in scoring and first in rebounding despite playing the fifth-most minutes on the team. He's shooting 64% inside the arc, taking half his shots at the rim and finishing those at an absurd 88% rate; he also has a top-100 free throw rate and knocks down 75% of his freebies. He's a great rebounder on both ends and a top-shelf shot-blocker. His combinaton of size and athleticism is going to be a serious problem, plain and simple, especially with Ashley and Tarczewski commanding their fair share of attention from Michigan's front line.

The other backup of note is diminutive freshman point guard Peter Jackson-Cartwright (INSERT HOBBIT JOKE HERE), who's not playing like a freshman; he's got a Spike-like 23/4 assist-to-turnover ratio while playing a little over a quarter of the available minutes. He's also hit 9/13 twos and 4/9 threes this season. I'm assuming he's a major defensive downgrade from McConnell due to his size, but offensively he's very much doing his part.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Arizona has fallen off a bit defensively without stalwarts Johnson and Gordon, though in their case that means going from the nation's top adjusted defensive efficiency down to a mere 13th. They absolutely dominate the glass on that end, force a top-100 turnover rate, and only allow opponents to hit 42% of their twos. They do have a couple areas of weakness: outside shooting (35% 3-pt, though that's coming on a relatively low number of attempts) and fouling. In general, though, this is a very tough nut to crack.

On offense, the Wildcats finish exceptionally well inside the arc, shoot pretty well outside of it—though they take a very low number of threes—and get to the line a ton. They're also very good at taking care of the rock. Oddly, their defensive rebounding success hasn't translated to the other end of the floor; their 31.4 OR% is quite pedestrian.

THE KEYS

Stay in front. Michigan can't afford to give up easy buckets, and they've been doing so far too often in recent games. If McConnell is able to work his way into the lane, it's going to be a dunkfest; Derrick Walton and Spike Albrecht have to make sure they keep Arizona's point guard under wraps.

Double down. If Michigan lets Ashley and Tarczewski go to work one-on-one around the basket, it's going to be trouble. Both, however, are prone to giving up the ball, and Arizona isn't a team that takes a lot of threes. Bringing hard double teams when either player gets the ball in the post seems like a good plan, and perhaps the only way the Wolverines avoid getting destroyed in the paint. Hollis-Jefferson is going to get his points against this team, likely in very efficient fashion. If M can keep the onus on his to carry the load, though, they've got a fighting chance, especially if they can force some turnovers and get some easy points in transition.

Regain the touch. M's back-to-back upset losses have been marked by bad outside shooting performances, either from an individual (Zak Irvin's 1/8 mark against NJIT) or on a team-wide basis (4/21 against EMU). It's very difficult to score inside against Arizona, so if Michigan wants to pull off an upset of their own, they're going to have to knock down shots from deep. If those aren't falling, it could be a long evening.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Arizona by 9.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Dylan's Q&A with Adam Butler of PacHoops. A couple deeper statistical dives into Michigan's recent struggles, one from Dylan and another from Maize n Brew's Drew Hallett—shot selection has been a major problem, as M just isn't getting to the rack.

Spike Albrecht is dealing with an undisclosed lower-body injury. He declined offseason surgery, and while he says it's not affecting him much, Beilein's comments make it sound like he's not able to play at 100%.