This is what NJIT’s gym looks like. Really. (Source)

YOUR WEEKLY B1G HOOPS COLUMN

*It’s the last week of class before finals and I’m really busy – Alex

Table of Contents

1. Our new least-favorite acronym
2. Is it time to panic?
3. The Big Ten defeats the ACC
4. Iowa wins in Chapel Hill
5. Remember: Michigan did beat Syracuse
6. Wisconsin, Ohio St., and Michigan St. lose
7. Michigan didn’t have the only awful loss
8. Early returns: individual player scatterplots
9. Early returns: efficiency margins
10. EARLY POWER RANKINGS

1. Our new least-favorite acronym

The elephant in the room is that–despite beating Syracuse in a key ACC/Big Ten Challenge clash–Michigan notched the most surprising result of the week (and maybe the most surprising result in all of college basketball so far this season) with a shocking home loss to NJIT, the New Jersey Institute of Technology.

After holding the Highlanders to just five points in the first ten minutes of the game, Michigan conceded 67 points over the next 30, and the Wolverine defense conceded the upset. To put it in context, NJIT’s outstanding eFG% of 70.7 was better than all but one of Michigan’s shooting performances last season (at Illinois – 72.5). While NJIT’s impressive 2-point percentage (55%) was a problem in and of itself, their eleven made three-pointers were the reason for the upset. To allow an opponent that had been shooting 33% from three to hit 11-17 is some extraordinarily bad luck. From Ken Pomeroy:

If you shot 45% in the first half of the 2011 conference season, you’d be expected to shoot about 35% in the second half. If you shot 25% in the first half, you’d be expected to shoot 33% in the second half. A difference you couldn’t notice with your eyes. I don’t know exactly what implications this has on strategy, but when evenly-matched teams get together, action happening beyond the 3-point line is like a lottery. You take a shot and a third of the time you have success.

Pomeroy’s analogy of the three-point line being a lottery – the amount of threes a team makes amounts to little more than a weighted random number generator and Michigan was absolutely torched by a team that, quite frankly, doesn’t shoot that well. This result is at the very far end of the bell-curve.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Panic? More on everybody else]

2. Is it time to panic?

After a game in December, never.

At this point, it will be exceedingly unlikely to see Michigan finish at the point where this game could potentially affect their ability to make it into the NCAA Tournament: they’re in, barring a spectacular implosion. How much this game will eventually affect seeding is an open question, but as one of more than thirty individual game results, it won’t be catastrophic. Still, this is one of the bigger upsets in recent college basketball memory: NJIT is the only D-I program – out of 351 – without a conference and a few years ago, the Highlanders won just won game over two entire seasons. This was a horrible loss and there’s no way around it.

Even though NJIT was lucky from behind the arc, Michigan’s defense was a disaster in this game. Michigan forced NJIT into 13 turnovers – not a bad mark by any means – but the Highlanders had been averaging over 17 per game. In a game decided by one possession, that difference is significant and, with Michigan’s level of athleticism on the perimeter, there should have been many more steals.

And this, from CBS’s Sam Vecenie, is hard to watch:

There’s plenty of blame to go around in all of those plays. The optimist would say that there are plenty of teachable moments to show a young team, the pessimist would say that it’s a very big problem that so many open looks were given up against such a bad opponent: both would be correct.

An anomalously brilliant performance from Caris LeVert is balanced out by an anomalously awful one from Zak Irvin and Michigan’s offense did score a very good 1.19 points per possession, so the focus should be squarely on the defense. It’s no secret that John Beilein hasn’t had stingy defenses at U of M thus far: the average national rank (excluding this year’s 113th-ranked squad) for those defenses, per kenpom, is 69th and the best individual defense (in 2011) was just 37th-best nationally. Under Beilein, Michigan can count on having an elite offense, but a leaky defense is equally likely.

3. The Big Ten defeats the ACC

Though both conferences fall behind the Big XII in both the Pomeroy and Sagarin ratings – the new Big East is ahead of both in the Sagarin ratings – the Big Ten is just ahead of the ACC in both ratings systems and defeated the ACC 8-6 in the longest-running conference challenge in college hoops.

Numbers are the teams’ respective kenpom ratings as of today, 12/9

As the chart indicates, the challenge was won because the lower tier of the Big Ten defeated the lower tier of the ACC. The top five of the ACC went 4-1 – understandable, because Duke, Virginia, and Louisville are such strong teams – and the top five of the Big Ten went 1-4. Only three Big Ten teams notched wins over more highly-rated ACC squads (Iowa, Michigan – whose ranking is deflated by the NJIT and likely not reflective of their quality – and Rutgers), though two of those games came on the road.

Just two Big Ten teams lost to worse ACC teams, both on the road: Michigan State dropped a tough OT contest to a decent Notre Dame squad and Illinois lost to a just slightly worse Miami team.

4. Iowa wins in Chapel Hill

Probably one of the greatest pictures of all time (source)

Iowa has a tough non-conference schedule this season – they’ve already faced Texas and Syracuse in New York and still face Iowa State (at home) and a solid Northern Iowa team at a neutral site – so ensuring that they get at least one marquee out-of-conference result is a much-appreciated safety net for a Hawkeye squad that could finish just about anywhere in the Big Ten’s muddled second tier. It was probably the best game of Mike Gesell’s career as he scored 16 points and made the eventual game-winning layup; Aaron White went scoreless from the field but hit all ten of his free throws, Jarrod Uthoff had five blocks but went 2-13 from the field, Adam Woodbury chipped in with 11, and only one Hawkeye reserve – Gabe Olaseni – put up any points (seven).

Iowa’s defense won the game, though perhaps it was North Carolina’s offense that lost the game. The Tar Heels had a miserable eFG% of 30.9 and made only 6 of 41 jump shots in the entire game (for a hideous eFG% of 19.5). Iowa’s zone defense took the North Carolina out of their comfort zone and even their star, Marcus Paige, went 4-16 from the field. UNC actually was very good on the offensive glass – as was Iowa – and held onto the ball well, but few teams that cold can win against a solid opponent, even at home.

Regardless (as BHGP points out), it was a cathartic win for a program that hadn’t been able to get over the hump in what has seemed like forever:

And despite giving up their now-famous bad final possession at the end of the first half and enduring their now-legendary second half scoring drought, Iowa hung with an ostensibly better opponent, and they did it with defense and tenacity and toughness in the interior.  It's not a signature win unless something comes of it, but it's a start.

5. Remember: Michigan did beat Syracuse

After the NJIT loss, the contest against Syracuse seems like it happened a long time ago, but Michigan’s victory over the Orange was a nice win that should be a solid non-conference result come March.

Oddly enough, Michigan won this game with a somewhat solid defensive effort. The Wolverines were leveraged into a very high ratio of three-point shots, even by their standards and didn’t hit especially well, making just 11 of 33 3-point FGA. U of M did hold onto the ball and did well enough on the glass, though they didn’t get to the free throw line much (which happens often against better teams).

Syracuse feasted inside: Rakeem Christmas hit all seven of his shots within five feet against Michigan’s overmatched big men (though Christmas did have six turnovers on the game as Beilein adjusted with double- and even triple-teams after halftime) and the rest of the team went 9-14 inside. Outside of Trevor Cooney, the Orange were cold from outside and most important, they turned the ball over frequently and finished with 20 giveaways on the game. Syracuse has a very young backcourt and is prone to turning the ball over, but it was nice to see an inspired defensive effort from the Wolverines.

I wrote this on Spike Albrecht after the game, if you missed it. He, as well as Kam Chatman, Ricky Doyle, and Zak Irvin, played well for the Wolverines – two of Michigan’s big three (Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton) were rather ineffective, so it was reassuring to see good performances that were absolutely necessary against a good opponent.

6. Wisconsin, Ohio St., and Michigan St. lose

A few thoughts on these games:

• Wisconsin lost the three-point (or jump-shot) lottery to Duke in a big way: the Blue Devils hit 12-16 midrange shots and made 7-12 three-pointers – a huge reason why they were able to post an eFG% of 72.8. Simply put, it’s very unlikely that any Wisconsin opponent shoots that well again this season and the Badgers aren’t really hurt by a loss to one of the nation’s best teams. A no-show from Sam Dekker (five points and four rebounds in 24 minutes) is the most concerning part of this game. The Badgers rebounded to handle a weak in-state rival, Marquette, in an ugly 49-38 game.
• Louisville overwhelmed Ohio State early – the game was 29-10 with five minutes left in the first half and it seemed over – but OSU clawed back to make the final margin respectable. Shannon Scott, who had been having a great season, regressed horribly with three points, no assists, and five turnovers. D’Angelo Russell posted a gaudy stat line, but was inefficient getting there. Ohio State’s backcourt won’t see a tenacious defense like Louisville’s again, and asking the Buckeyes to come away with a road win there would have been asking a lot.
• Michigan State lost to Notre Dame in what essentially amounted to a coin-flip: both offenses thrived and the Irish star, Jerian Grant, had a phenomenal game against the Spartans. MSU also had some excellent performances: along with Branden Dawson’s impressive 16-and-18, Denzel Valentine hit four threes en route to 22 points and Bryn Forbes chipped in with 18 points and didn’t miss a shot. It wasn’t a bad result for State – even though they collapsed late – but they’re pretty much through their non-conference schedule without any key wins (though they’ll have plenty of opportunities in conference play):

7. Michigan didn’t have the only awful loss

Thanks Purdue! (source)

To clarify, Purdue’s loss to North Florida was not as bad as Michigan’s loss to NJIT – Purdue had an initial win probability of 91% (Michigan’s was 98%) and N. Florida was rated 194th nationally by Pomeroy’s system entering the game (NJIT was rated 293rd). Still, this might be a more damaging loss: Purdue had compiled a pretty solid non-conference resume to this point, notching wins over BYU and North Carolina State while only losing to Kansas St., but for a prospective bubble team, this loss to North Florida will be an anchor on the resume in March. This game won’t make or break the season, but it’s a blow to Purdue’s resume and its confidence, plus it’s a bad sign for a team that had seemingly turned a corner.

It was a weird game. Purdue dominated the glass on the offensive end – as a team, they had 21 offensive rebounds (A.J. Hammons, Vince Edwards, and Jon Octeus – a guard – each had five) – but they struggled to protect the rim and North Florida hit 14-15 of their shots near the rim. The Boilermakers were leveraged into a massive amount of mid-range shots and predictably struggled, though they were also inefficient from three. Vince Edwards, who has been having a promising season, was an offensive no-show and few Boilermakers outside of the center tandem of Hammons and Isaac Haas – another promising freshman – were productive at all. Purdue was outscored by ten points in the game’s final three minutes and North Florida stole a game that the Boilermakers probably should have won.

8. Early returns: individual player scatterplots

I decided to take a look at some of the statistical leaders early on in non-conference play; the sample size is still rather small but quite a few teams have played nine games thus far. Data is through Monday’s games.

In order, the top scorers are: D.J. Newbill (Penn St.), Terran Petteway (Nebraska), James Blackmon (Indiana), Caris LeVert (Michigan), Shavon Shields (Nebraska), D’Angelo Russell (Ohio St.), Rayvonte Rice (Illinois), Yogi Ferrell (Indiana), Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin), Melo Trimble (Maryland), Zak Irvin (Michigan), Aaron White (Iowa), Travis Trice (Michigan St.), Jake Layman (Maryland), Denzel Valentine (Michigan St.), Myles Mack (Rutgers), Malcolm Hill (Illinois), Andre Hollins (Minnesota), Marc Loving (Ohio St.), Derrick Walton (Michigan)

A few observations:

• Terran Petteway, D’Angelo Russell, and D.J. Newbill are this year’s collection of chuckers – Newbill’s been the most efficient, Russell is performing well for being just a freshman, and Petteway… is taking attempts away from the efficient Shields?
• Three Michigan players in the top twenty is the most of any individual team – conversely, Purdue and Northwestern don’t have any. Michigan’s group of standouts will have to score plenty for the Wolverines to be successful, and so far, they have been scoring a combined 47.3 points per game.
• If Indiana were closer to the top of the league, James Blackmon – scoring 19.5 points per game on 48% from two, 54% from three, and 89% from three free throw line (on 6.0, 6.0, and 4.5 attempts per game, respectively) – would be the leader for Big Ten Player of the Year. He’s been outstanding.
• Sam Dekker isn’t on the list of top twenty scorers, in fact, he’s 34th overall with just 10.7 points per game. Nigel Hayes (11.6) has scored more.
• Ohio State’s Marc Loving has been absurdly efficient in a quite small sample size: 13-21 from two, 14-25 from three, 22-26 from the FT line for a TS% of 77.1. With OSU’s highly-touted freshmen, Loving has flown under the radar a little bit, but he’s been playing very well for the Buckeyes.

* * *

In order, the top rebounders are: Branden Dawson (Michigan St.), Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin), Ross Travis (Penn St.), Nigel Hayes (Wisconsin), Aaron White (Iowa), Rayvonte Rice (Illinois), Junior Etou (Rutgers), Shavon Shields (Nebraska), Alex Olah (Northwestern), Vince Edwards (Purdue), Brandon Taylor (Penn St.), Jarrod Uthoff (Iowa), Matt Costello (Michigan St.), Kadeem Jack (Rutgers), Malcolm Hill (Illinois), Vic Law (Northwestern), Gabriel Olaseni (Iowa), Jake Layman (Maryland), Amir Williams (Ohio St.)

A few observations:

• Though Branden Dawson hasn’t been the offensive force that Michigan State had hoped for, he might have exceeded even the loftiest of expectations thus far: he has the third-highest defensive rebounding rate on this list, the third-highest offensive rebounding rate, and the highest amount of rebounds per game at 9.0.
• A group of centers in platoons – Matt Costello, Gabe Olaseni, and Amir Williams – appear near the top right corner,  though they rank just tied for 12th, 18th, and tied for 19th, respectively. Those three have excellent rebounding rates, but don’t play enough to put up the raw numbers. Others like that are A.J. Hammons (22), Isaac Haas (25), Nnanna Egwu (27), and Mo Walker (29).
• Frank Kaminsky has the best defensive rebounding rate in the conference (interestingly, Kam Chatman is fourth) and doesn’t crash the offensive glass because he’s frequently spacing the floor with his shooting ability. That he’s second in the conference in total rebounds per game without many chances on the offensive glass is a testament to his overall ability.
• Michigan’s revolving door of center leaves them as one of three representatives without a representative here (Indiana and Minnesota), though Caris LeVert is knocking on the door at 21.

9. Early returns: efficiency margins

Though they aren’t unbeaten, Wisconsin is the class of the conference (source)

A few observations:

• Michigan’s the most surprising name on the list, no doubt because of the game against NJIT. If that’s an anomaly, which it likely is, the Wolverines aren’t anywhere near just the tenth-best team in the league. Still, being 13th out of 14 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency is surely worrying. Michigan’s offense is fifth-best as of right now, for the record.
• Nebraska at 11th is somewhat surprising, though to see that their defense (7th) is pretty decent, while their offense isn’t (12th) isn’t a big shock. Nebraska returned the same personnel from a team that overachieved last year and while it’s unlikely that they’re a bottom-third team in the conference, they’re probably not going to challenge to finish near the top of the second tier of the league behind Wisconsin.
• Everything else is about what you’d expect. Wisconsin is at the top and while this number is adjusted for schedule strength, Ohio State probably isn’t that close to the Badgers. After Wisconsin, it’s OSU, then a cluster of MSU, Illinois, and Iowa. Michigan should be among that group (again, as long as the NJIT upset is a horrible outlier that will be evened out over the course of the season).
• Indiana’s oscillation from “good defense, bad offense” to the inverse is quite stark. Between Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon, the Hoosiers have plenty of firepower, but with just Hanner Mosquera-Perea down low, the defense is and will continue to be a severe liability.

10. EARLY POWER RANKINGS

It would be hard to put Michigan much higher after that game against NJIT, but I do believe that they’re better than sixth. They’ll just have to prove it. Also: the AP Poll really likes Maryland for some reason.