Searchbits IX: Dramamine Time

like the mean streak, this coaching search will jerk you around

HARBAUGH HARBAUGH HARBAUGH: HOORAY. I hope you guys like rollercoasters. Yesterday it was all sun and butter, because when the money comes in someone's hearing something:

Jim Harbaugh 2015 Coaching odds suspended after a stream of bets on Michigan moved them from 8-1 to 2-1 yesterday afternoon

— Sportsbook.com ® (@Sportsbook_com) December 6, 2014

Note that this is not a "who will be Michigan's coach" prop, it's a "where will Harbaugh be" prop. The sportsbook had a low maximum bet on this event (2k) but had so much Harbaugh-to-M action coming in that they couldn't set the odds high enough to discourage it, and thus yoinked the bet.

At the same time this was going on the insider rumble got near-fervent at Rivals, partially from unofficial sources, partially from official ones. For the first time it really felt like it was happening; I heard some chatter that Schlissel and the regents have been brought into discussions. That implies that negotiations reached the part where numbers are involved.

The only pause came last night when Sam re-iterated that a couple of his sources were skeptical, and even he later said he thought Harbaugh was probable. Hooray! Stack the pancakes and get the syrup catapult out, we're having Harbaugh for brunch!

HARBAUGH HARBAUGH HARBAUGH: HELP. Then this morning the NFL guys weighed in with the same thing they've been saying since it became clear Harbaugh was headed somewhere else after the season: nope. Many of them did so.

The problem with these assertions is that many of them contain nonsense within them. CBS:

While many are connecting Harbaugh to the opening at Michigan, where he was a star quarterback, sources close to the coach maintain he is not interested. Harbaugh's family has close ties to outgoing Michigan coach Brady Hoke and Harbaugh is much more interested in NFL possibilities.

Ties to Brady Hoke are not a reason to not take the Michigan job. I'm sure these guys are all getting information from people who know something about something, but they seem to just repeat it without considering whether or not that source is reliable in this matter. The story goes on to assert that Steven Ross "could" end up being the primary competition with the Raiders for his services when people have reported that his focus at the moment is getting him to Ann Arbor—and away from the Jets.

So I'm skeptical of that, but poke an NFL insider today and he's saying Harbaugh to Michigan ain't happening. Ian Rapoport said Michigan "reached out" and "left convinced he wants to be an NFL coach"; FWIW he is the guy who asserted a few weeks ago that Ross wanted Harbaugh at M.

So the usual, with all sides escalating. Someone's going to look dumb.

NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

MORE PLAN B STUFF. Michigan is still focused heavily on Harbaugh and will be until he gives them a flat no. But they're not putting all their eggs in one basket, which is an improvement from the 2007 search (no basket, eggs anywhere and everywhere) and the 2011 search (basket reads "HARBAUGH!!!hoke i guess). I get the impression that Michigan is contacting a lot of people, either because it's a good idea or because it's the ultimate smokescreen.

So I have a series of unconfirmed reports, all about different people who have had the proverbial feelers extended to them. Along with the guys mentioned yesterday (Whittingham, Mullen, Addazio, Mora) I've had blips on David Shaw, Mora (again) and even Gary Patterson. Patterson is unlikely unless his team misses the playoff—we'll know that today. Previous reports that he'd flat turned M down are premature but likely to be correct in the long run.

And… ugh… people keep talking about Greg Schiano, who Florida passed over for a third year coach with a 7 million dollar buyout and Nebraska passed over for a 62-year-old. Scout's Brian Dohn reports($) that Schiano is making a "strong push for the job" after turning Michigan down in 2007; it should be noted that the strong push is coming from the Schiano side of things… which like yeah duh. I haven't heard anything about the interest being reciprocal.

In re: Schiano's attractivness. Nope! He had one really good year in 2006, and then spent the next five years going 16-19 in the post-defection Big East. He deserves credit for rebuilding Rutgers, but his star has collapsed since he seemed plausible in 07.

ON THE ACCESSIBILITY OF MULLEN. I forgot to include a link to a Matt Hinton piece on Grantland describing the various ways in which Mullen has cobbled together a top ten team from discarded ham and kumquat-flavored toothpaste. Hinton includes a couple of charts that demonstrate how impressive Mullen's season has been and why he's liable to GTFO of Starkville at the first reasonable opportunity:

I cross-referenced every player listed this week on official depth charts released by Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M against their original recruiting rating, and on paper, at least, the difference between the top of the division and the ostensible bottom is a yawning chasm:

Mullen’s only five-star signee, sophomore defensive lineman Chris Jones, is listed as a backup; of the four-stars on hand, only four of the eight are listed as starters, all on defense: senior defensive tackles P.J. Jones and Kaleb Eulls, sophomore linebacker Beniquez Brown, and senior safety Justin Cox. Everyone else on the no. 3 team in the nation, by the standards of the rest of its own division, arrived as an afterthought.

And this is a considerable improvement on MSU's previous recruiting! It is super-hard to maintain against that kind of recruiting thunder in a division where Hugh Freeze might be the worst coach. (Seriously. Who is the worst coach in the SEC West?)

And Scout's Jamie Newberg says "he just knows" that Mullen would leave for the Michigan job if offered it.

CUMONG MAN. The hotdog rumors will not die:

One bit of Michigan search info I can share--there’s one well-known current head coach who believes Michigan is going to hire Sean Payton.

— Ben Estes (@benestes91) December 5, 2014

Last January Payton signed an $8-million-per-year extension that extends to the 2017-18 season. It makes him the highest-paid coach, period. Buying him out of that and giving him a commensurate contract is a financial commitment on par with those debunked Godfather offers, and presumes he wants to leave the Saints franchise he's been with since 2006. Also, all he has to do is suck less than the Falcons to make the playoffs this year. This doesn't pass basic common sense.

CUMONG MAN II. Gil "Thorpe" Brandt has a case to make for Schiano:

My wildcard for #Michigan is Greg Schiano, might even be front-runner. Will get excellent recommendations from high-powered #NFL coaches

— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) December 5, 2014

It is not a good case. The NFL does not like him one bit. Also: remember how we thought Nebraska's search was nuts? They could have hired Schiano in a hot second. Schiano is the only way Michigan can come out of this hiring troika with a guy the other two definitively passed on.

Etc.: Les Miles tells a recruit he's not going anywhere. I think he thinks that's true because he thinks he's not going to get a sniff. Here is a comprehensive rundown of everything that's been said so far.