Haknpoints Returns a Starts Record

Meta: New interim column name is interim. Rhymes with "talkin' points" if you have a heavy Midwest accent. Hakn means to nag in Yiddish, literally to bang on […a pot or teakettle]. The reference.

Every touch is a little bit of magic. [Fuller]

Early last month Brian forwarded me a reader question about the relative experience of Michigan's players, and asked for a lot of research:

What has been the average age and game experience of each of the teams’ skill groups over the course of the season for each of Hoke’s years coaching here?

I’d love to see a table or graph that showed age/game experience by skill group by year of tenure for all the skill groups.  Just data.

Everyone says – players aren’t developing.  I’m not sure whether it’s true or a function of getting better but younger less experienced guys on the field.

My impression Defense is improving – and that’s where Hoke started recruiting (if memory serves) – those are some of his third year guys now (still juniors and RS Sophs) – getting better all the time.  Offense – a year behind defense from age/experience.  Mostly Sophs and RS Fresh.  If that pattern is right and holds, a defense of 4th and 3rd year guys next year and an offense of 3rd and second year guys should continue to improve the product.  No?

Off the cuff, we were plotting out age progression of Hoke's recruiting classes back in 2012 (when most of the 2013 class was signed) and concluding that 2015 was the probable germination point. I think a big part of why Hoke was let go was Michigan doesn't at all seem on track for that to happen. As Hackett mentioned in his press conference, the 2015 team should be one of the most experienced we've fielded in memory across the board (provided there's no mass exodus, which is hardly a guarantee).

Yay for Good News! How Good's Our GNews?

To get a real answer I really think we'd need other teams to compare it with, and that's way too much work. Also not all positions are created equal and relative experience does not say how quality the experienced players are: the 2003 and 2005 teams were nearly identical, but the 2003 was one of the best under Lloyd while the latter we thought of at the time as painful. Deciding which positions mature at what rate and have which effect of outcome is beyond the scope of this study.  But I found two ways to approximate an answer:

1) Long ago I started keeping a spreadsheet of players, going back to the mid-'90s, with what years they were on the roster, when they left, and why. With some updating that was able to produce a list of how many scholarship players Michigan had available each year back to '97, broken up by year-in-program and eligibility and whatnot. By that count Michigan has the oldest team in 2015 in the post-championship era, with 85 accumulated years (average at UM for 1997-2014 is 68) since high school on offense and 83 (average is 61) on defense.

2) I scoured the Bentley team history pages (the links at the right on that page), for how many starts each player had. This turned out to be quite the rabbit hole, hence why it took me so long to produce a response. After fixing a bazillion duplicates and spelling errors and whatnots (like for example they have the Gordons mixed up), I had a list of starts by season of every Michigan player going back to 1994, which I've put on Google Docs for your perusal.

There's some other good tabs at that link if you like exploration.

[Money chart and more after the jump]

cklik bkligkens.

Things I did:

• Combined RBs, FBs, and TEs into a single spectral category.
• Counted rush OLBs in a 3-4 (LaMarr Woodley, James Hall, Glen Steele, etc.) as DL so the numbers don't get all skewed from minor variations in defensive schema. All Jake Ryan things were counted as a LB, all Brennan Beyer things as DL, despite both playing virtually the same position. If you want to argue that hit the comments.
• Counted 3-3-5 Spurs as linebackers. This affects the Gordons and how Stevie Brown's safety experience applied to 2010.
• Counted deathbackers in 2010's 3-3-5 as LBs because that's how GERG used them/him/Roh.
• Treated Funchess as leaving early, but everyone else staying. I am going off of nothing more than you have, which are eyes.
• Removed pre-season injuries but not mid-season ones.
• Some of those starts may be on the other side of the ball (e.g. Heitzman's) but I left them in.

Yellow are defense, blue hues are offense. What we're measuring are the total number of returning starts at those positions at the start of each season. Here are the constituent numbers:

So: things.

Offense: By number of previous starts the 2015 roster looks to be in better shape than any since 2011, when Hoke inherited 359 total starts. The RB/TE spectrum is as experienced as any in the study and the offensive line brings back the most combined starts of any group since the legendary 2000 one (and only two of them are seniors!) The receiving minus Funchess is average, about on par with the first year Braylon, Avant and Breaston were all together.

Then there's the quarterback situation, which could bring the whole enterprise down. Because I could only count starts instead of total snaps, it looks like Morris has a step on Drew Henson. Here's the starting QB candidates in years after The Guy graduated:

(freshmen excised)

I'm happy the Henson comparison is still in the ballpark, though Shane would love to have a 2-1 TD/INT ratio. Henson's sophomore year didn't display anything like the brilliant junior season he'd put up with that 2000 o-line. However the existence of huge upside doesn't change the plausibility of huge downside.

Hopping back to the start chart, you'll note 2003, 2006, 2007, and 2012 were the only years Michigan had a quarterback with 20 more starts entering the season. We lost 2007 and 2012 to those quarterbacks being injured; 2003 and 2006 were the best offensive years under Carr. This spot does indeed matter.

Defense: Second only to 2012 in overall starts returning. That year was weird, as the defense was in its second season of an overhaul under Mattison, and pocked by lots of dudes with starting experience from 2009 and 2010—Floyd, Kovacs, Roh, Avery, Cam Gordon—which they probably wouldn't have had if better talent was available to those teams (all due respect to upperclassman Kovacs, but freshman Kovacs and free safety Kovacs were harrowing experiences).

The 2015 team projects to not be so concentrated on one position group; the defensive line returns an average amount of experience, the linebackers are a record thanks to Desmond Morgan's extra year, and the defensive backfield is also among the most seasoned. I'd liken the defense to the 2002 team except it's the linebacking corps instead of the DL.

All told, Michigan should return the most experienced team since the one Brady Hoke inherited. Let's hope it remains as intact.