Duke brings its collection of highly-touted freshmen to Madison, WI (source)
*I had my wisdom teeth pulled on Friday, so getting this together took longer than expected. Apologies. – Alex
Table of Contents
- Major ACC – Big Ten Challenge storylines
- Game previews: Tuesday
- Game previews: Wednesday
- Result probabilities
- Challenge predictions
- Nebraska and Rutgers bring home wins
- Tom Crean’s seat might be getting warmer
- Holiday hoops recap – Part I
- Holiday hoops recap – Part II
- Holiday hoops recap – Part III
1. Major ACC – Big Ten Challenge storylines
As usual, the annual competition between the Big Ten and the ACC brings some of the most intriguing non-conference fixtures on the college basketball schedule. Unlike early-season tournaments or games at one-off neutral site venues, these will be played on campus – intersectional matchups between some of the most talented and prestigious teams in all of college hoops. As an added bonus, it provides 14 more data-points in the comparative analysis of conference strength.
The headliner of this slate of games is one of the best college basketball games of the year, on paper: two top five teams—Duke, led by possibly the best pro prospect in the country (Jahlil Okafor) travels to face Wisconsin, a veteran team coming off of a Final Four bid. Okafor, a mammoth center with precocious skill and coordination, matches up against Preseason All-American Frank Kaminsky, a versatile inside-out scoring five. Duke’s Justice Winslow meets Wisconsin’s Sam Dekker – both will likely be future NBA players, both are athletic, long wings who can score, defend, and rebound. Senior point guards Quinn Cook and Traevon Jackson form an intriguing matchup. This game – televised Wednesday at 9:30 E.T. on ESPN – is simply a must-watch.
With 14 games total, there are plenty more compelling matchups: Ohio State’s young squad faces its first real trip with a trip just south to face a vaunted Louisville team; Michigan welcomes an unusually inexperienced Syracuse team to Ann Arbor and will look to crack its characteristic 2-3 zone; Illinois and Miami – both undefeated – have a chance to enhance their upstart status; in a matchup of former conference foes, Virginia – and their unaesthetic brand of basketball – heads to Maryland (who will unfortunately be without the injured Dez Wells); Iowa has an opportunity to steal an upset at North Carolina; and Michigan State rekindles a football rivalry with Notre Dame – now a basketball member in the ACC.
This is one of the best short stretches of college basketball in terms of unique, high-level matchups, with the added element of conference camaraderie thrown in. Other leagues have since replicated the ACC – Big Ten Challenge, but this is still one of college basketball’s marquee events.
[AFTER THE JUMP: ACC—B1G analysis, recapping holiday tournaments]
2. Game previews: Tuesday
Illinois travels to Miami in a matchup of AP Top-25 Teams (source)
- Pittsburgh at Indiana (7:00, ESPN2)
- Minnesota at Wake Forest (7:00, ESPNU)
- Syracuse at Michigan (7:30, ESPN)
- Illinois at Miami (9:00, ESPN2)
- N. Carolina St. at Purdue (9:00, ESPNU)
- Ohio St. at Louisville (9:00, ESPN)
Favorites (by Ken Pomeroy’s algorithm): Louisville (82%), Purdue (71%), Miami (67%), Michigan (64%), Indiana (58%), Minnesota (57%)
Early Slate:
Minnesota is coming off of a win and a loss after a week in New York City (to St. John’s and Georgia, respectively), but should be in for a relatively easy game. Wake Forest is in its first season under former Tulsa coach Danny Manning and the Demon Deacons are coming off of a home loss to Delaware State (who’s ranked 265th nationally by Pomeroy’s system). It’s a tough rebuilding job in Winston-Salem and Minnesota should be able to come out with a win, even though they’ll be on the road.
Indiana, who suffered an embarrassing home upset a week ago to Eastern Washington, welcomes the Pitt Panthers to Bloomington. Pitt acquitted themselves fairly well in the Maui Invitational – they took care of Chaminade, dropped a game to San Diego State, and dominated a decent Kansas State squad. Pittsburgh’s strength on the offensive glass could doom the Hoosiers: the Panthers are 27th nationally in offensive rebounding rate so far in this young season and Indiana has a dearth of serviceable big men in the post.
Syracuse and Michigan headline the opening window of games and there are several interesting storylines to follow: can Michigan distort Syracuse’s patented 2-3 zone with excellent outside shooting? How well will the Orange and senior center Rakeem Christmas, in particular, be able to attack Michigan’s green frontcourt? Will Derrick Walton be able to suit up and run the offense for Michigan? It’s certain to be an intriguing game and a solid reference point for two programs hovering near the periphery of the Top-25.
Late Slate:
Illinois – Miami and Ohio State – Louisville are two excellent games, but both Big Ten teams are playing on the road. All four teams are currently undefeated: Illinois’s best win came in a tournament win over Baylor, Miami won a road contest against Florida as part of ESPN’s Hoops Marathon, Ohio State has been virtually unchallenged thus far, and Louisville defeated Minnesota to open the season in Puerto Rico. Illinois and Ohio State both are likely NCAA Tournament teams, but if either were to steal a win tonight, it would be a huge piece in an NCAA Tournament resume and could bump them up a seed-line come March. It will be interesting to see how Ohio State handles a team with the blend of talent and experience that Louisville has, especially in a road environment.
Purdue has been a relatively pleasant surprise thus far and they host North Carolina State in the Wolfpack’s first game outside of Raleigh. NCSU’s big men are foul-prone, so it would be nice to see some aggressiveness from Purdue’s promising big man tandem of A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas. The Wolfpack do hold their opponents to a low 2-point FG%, so it Purdue’s ability to score inside and draw fouls – something the Boilermakers should theoretically excel at – will be crucial.
3. Game Previews: Wednesday
STICKING SOMETHING IN AN OPPONENT’S FIELD IS DISRESPECTFUL (source)
- Michigan St. at Notre Dame (7:15, ESPN2)
- Virginia Tech at Penn St. (7:15, ESPNU)
- Iowa at North Carolina (7:30, ESPN)
- Virginia at Maryland (9:15, ESPN2)
- Georgia Tech at Northwestern (9:15, ESPNU)
- Duke at Wisconsin (9:30, ESPN)
Favorites: Penn St. (82%), North Carolina (76%), Wisconsin (62%), Virginia (60%), Georgia Tech (56%), Michigan St. (51%)
Early Slate:
The headliner is Michigan State at Notre Dame; while the football rivalry has been curtailed because of Notre Dame’s quasi-inclusion into the ACC, that move makes it possible for the two to face off on the hardwood. Michigan State has won the games it was supposed to win and has lost the games it was expected to lose, but this Notre Dame game provides a nice opportunity for a quality road non-conference win, which is the only chance for that left on the schedule. ND is trying to rebound from a surprisingly disappointing season last year – they have now-eligible Jerian Grant back and have the nation’s best eFG% through the first few weeks of the season.
North Carolina suffered a surprising upset loss to Butler in the Battle 4 Atlantis; the Bulldogs grabbed an insane 29 offensive rebounds and UNC’s work on the defensive glass has been generally poor all season – Iowa’s cache of frontcourt talent could make the Tar Heels pay on that end. Still, North Carolina is an overwhelming favorite because they’re at home: the Hawkeyes haven’t been particularly impressive thus far but they potentially could have given UNC a scare at home if a few things went their way.
Penn State isn’t very good, but Virginia Tech is much worse. There’s not really a whole lot more to say about this one.
Late Slate:
Wisconsin – Duke is easily the best matchup of the entire challenge and it’s possibly the best chance for either team to get a regular-season loss. Wisconsin’s a known quantity, though Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig have shown more this year than they did a season ago. Duke is stacked with high-level NBA talent: Jahlil Okafor and Justice Winslow could be the most devastating duo in college basketball as a whole and they’re just freshmen. Both teams shoot the ball and avoid turnovers extremely well and Duke and Wisconsin are ranked #1 and #2 respectively in Pomeroy’s adjusted ORtg. It should be a phenomenal game.
The contest between Maryland and Virginia lost a little bit of luster with Dez Wells’s injury, but it should be interesting to see how Maryland’s home crowd responds to the first visit from a former conference foe. Virginia beat Rutgers by a ghastly score of 45-26 earlier this week and without Wells, Maryland’s offense could look quite ugly against the Cavaliers’ tough and frustrating pack line defensive scheme (the same one used by Wisconsin). Between the pace and the potential for offensive inefficiency, this could be one of the uglier games in the challenge, though both teams are decent.
Northwestern and Georgia Tech also play and there isn’t much to say about this game – perhaps the home-court advantage will help NU to a victory, though they’ve certainly struggled to look good thus far this season.
4. Result probabilities
There will be more on Rutgers and Nebraska’s road wins later on in the column, but as it stands right now, the Big Ten is up 2-0 on the ACC. Using Pomeroy’s win probabilities, I ran 1,000 simulations of the challenge:
With two road wins, the Big Ten is in great shape to win the Challenge outright and should be able to find six wins in a generally favorable home schedule (let alone any games they might steal on the road).
5. Challenge predictions
I’ll give it a shot – here’s a predicted winner in each game (Big Ten team in bold, home team in italics):
- Indiana over Pittsburgh
- Minnesota over Wake Forest
- Michigan over Syracuse
- Illinois over Miami
- Purdue over N. Carolina St.
- Louisville over Ohio St.
- Michigan St. over Notre Dame
- Penn St. over Virginia Tech
- North Carolina over Iowa
- Virginiaover Maryland
- Georgia Tech over Northwestern
- Duke over Wisconsin
With the Big Ten’s two games in hand, I’m predicting a record of 9-5 and a comfortable Big Ten victory in the ACC – Big Ten Challenge. There have already been two, and this set of predictions calls for five more teams (Wake Forest, Miami, Notre Dame, Maryland, and Wisconsin) to lose at home, which would be a bit of a surprise. These are nothing better than (somewhat) educated guesses, so it will be interesting to see how well I do.
6. Nebraska and Rutgers bring home wins
On the first night of the challenge, the Big Ten leapt out to a 2-0 lead behind impressive road wins from Nebraska and Rutgers – neither of whom were favored to win, per Pomeroy. Rutgers’s offense, in particular, saw a little bit of a resurgence after scoring just 0.48 points per possession in their last contest against Virginia. 3 turnovers total was the lowest total that Rutgers posted this season and it’s a nice sign moving forward – teams that often get leveraged into less-desirable mid-range shots need to maximize the possessions they have.
Nebraska suffered through another high-usage game from Terran Petteway (who actually fouled out of the game with a few minutes left): Petteway scored 25 points, but they came on 26.5 shot equivalents. Shavon Shields posted another efficient game and had two nice assists down the stretch to seal the game for Nebraska, but it’s a little alarming that the Huskers are generally rather inefficient on the offensive end and that Petteway is taking so many shots.
Granted, this is a very small sample size of games thus far, but it’s something to track. My guess is that Petteway’s usage is correlated with better opponent defense and it’s hard to parse out if Nebraska’s poor offense is a symptom or cause of that dynamic.
7. Tom Crean’s seat might be getting warmer
Eastern Washington is currently ranked 120th nationally in Pomeroy’s system – for context, Northwestern is ranked 121st – and while this isn’t a truly horrible home loss for Indiana, it’s quite alarming (and besides, this might hurt if Indiana finds itself of the bubble come March). Their lack of inside presence really hurt – EWU managed an impressive 40 FGA at the rim (and made 25 of them, a good mark) and dominated the Hoosiers on the offensive glass. Hanner Mosquera-Perea hasn’t been as effective as Indiana had hoped and there’s precious little in the way of reinforcements. Indiana’s offense has picked up after the stark regression on the defensive end, but it wasn’t enough against Eastern Washington.
The offense hasn’t recovered to the impressive efficiency of the Cody Zeller / Victor Oladipo / Jordan Hulls / Christian Watford teams, but James Blackmon has been very impressive and Yogi Ferrell has continued his impressive level of play from last season. Still, without improvement on the defensive end – particularly down low – Indiana will struggle to make it back to the tournament again.
8. Holiday hoops recap – Part I
Impressive wins
Illinois
Baylor might not be quite as good as they have been over the last few years, but Illinois did well to handle the Bears in Las Vegas to win their holiday tournament. Baylor runs a bizarre, nebulous-looking zone that has elements of a rather conservative 1-3-1 and 2-3 zone, but Illinois navigated it well, held on to the ball, and won with their defense. Baylor did not shoot well from the field and Illinois deserves some credit, though jump-shooting is fairly random.
Sophomore Malcolm Hill – who Matt Silich mentioned to me as a potential breakout candidate for the Illini – played well, scored an efficient 17 points, and hit two threes from his spot as a stretch-four. Rayvonte Rice’s play was encouraging as well: he got his points efficiently enough and managed to pull in seven rebounds and three steals.
Maryland
This is possibly the Big Ten’s best win in non-conference play thus far – Iowa State has been an offensive juggernaut with their spaced-out pro-style scheme under Fred Hoiberg, but Maryland stifled their typically excellent offense and held the Cyclones to just 0.93 points per possession. Iowa State’s 34.4 eFG% was just a tenth of a percentage point better than their worst shooting performance of the season last year.
While the Terrapins are 2-0 since their win over Iowa State, losing Dez Wells has proven to be a significant blow: Maryland barely beat an unspectacular Monmouth team in the first game without Wells and handled a bad VMI team a few days afterwards. Wells could very well be one of the top five players in the conference and Maryland will really struggle with him out – although freshman combo guard Melo Trimble (who already shouldered an impressive amount of responsibility for a newcomer) could have break out in Wells’s absence.
Trimble is somewhat of an under-the-radar B1G Freshman of the Year candidate: he’s scored 31 points against an alright Arizona State squad, scored 24 against Monmouth, and put up 19 in the game against VMI.
9. Holiday hoops recap – Part II
Holding Pattern
A few brief comments on these teams, who basically fared as expected:
- Purdue lost to Kansas State, beat an atypically bad Missouri team, and notched a nice overtime win over BYU in their three games in Maui. Isaac Haas emerged as a legitimate force backing up AJ Hammons, who was predictably inconsistent in his time on the court. Vince Edwards looked particularly great against BYU and has been the most surprising freshman thus far – the three 3-pointers he hit against the Cougars with Maui’s notoriously soft rims are just a bonus to the hustle and athleticism he brings.
- Wisconsin won the best preseason tournament quite handily in the end, but they didn’t get the type of elite opponents that they could have faced; with Georgetown’s upset of Florida, Oklahoma’s upset of UCLA, and especially Butler’s upset of North Carolina, the Badgers lost opportunities for truly high-quality wins. Georgetown was surprisingly difficult, but Wisconsin overcame a less-than-stellar performance from Frank Kaminsky to pull out a win late. After trailing by nine with just over 11 minutes left, Wisconsin ended the game on a 24-12 run to close out the game.
- Michigan beat Oregon (who they were supposed to beat) and lost to Villanova (who they were supposed to lose to), so in the end, the Wolverines fared about as well as expected. The second-half surge against the Wildcats was particularly impressive after a stretch of truly awful offensive basketball (especially by Michigan’s lofty standard), but it was simply too difficult to sustain that level of play throughout the whole game. Michigan did play a talented, veteran Villanova squad basically even over forty minutes at a neutral venue, and the Wolverines’ defense – which held the Wildcats to just 0.94 PPP – was encouraging.
10. Holiday hoops recap – Part III
Slightly Disappointing
Like Michigan, Michigan State beat the overmatched teams they were supposed to beat and lost a close game to Kansas at the end. After three games in four days and with an ill Branden Dawson, it’s hard to draw too much from that game.
St. John’s isn’t an especially good team, so it’s a little disappointing to see Minnesota drop this game – they’re probably better than both St. John’s and Georgia, but they didn’t demonstrate it. Poor shooting and an inability to get to the line was the problem against SJU, while improved shooting from outside helped carry them to a win against Georgia.