Two ways we can go.
Ace: I feel obligated to ask a question about The Game despite barely even having the will to watch the dang thing at this point. So... what miracle (or series of miracles) needs to transpire for Michigan to win? Is there a weakness on the Buckeyes that you can see Michigan exploiting in an alternate universe where Michigan exploits weaknesses?
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Seth: The Buckeyes are good, but they're not perfect. The backfield and DL are legit, but the LBs and DBs and WRs are still guys who live on their athleticism more so than technique, and the OL is still just as young as ours. Urban covers up the youth well, but it shows at times.
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| Urban's message to Barrett: don't try to be perfect. [11w] |
J.T. Barrett isn't Braxton Miller, for better and worse. Barrett isn't going to glide past your containment the way Miller always could; on the other hand he's way more accurate on deep balls, giving Ohio State a lethal third dimension. Teams that have had defensive success against the Buckeyes have been crashing the ends on Elliott to force Barrett to run, trusting their athletes can chop him down in space. Penn State and Virginia Tech both kept his run/pass ratio relatively even, and mixed up coverages like crazy to try to temp Barrett into turnovers. The strategy is vulnerable deep, but sometimes you can get lucky (Indiana), or weather can interfere (Minnesota), or your defensive line can generate enough organic pressure (Penn State) to deny Barrett the chance.
Michigan's DL has the chops to keep the OSU run game in hand without selling out on it. The coverage has been good except when tempo'ed, which Meyer would be all to happy to use but for his young offense.
The thing about Meyer's OSU is it's not going to surprise you. He covers his players' weaknesses by having them repeatedly do the things they're good at, in a system that makes sense and takes advantage of whatever it's given. Brady Hoke, on the other hand, tends to spend big chunks of games making his players do things they're bad at, and almost never takes strategic advantages when they're presented. There is an advantage in punching yourself in the face all season, because OSU has scant film on what happens when a Brady Hoke team actually uses its talents.
In some whacky scenario, Michigan throws a bunch of Cover 3 and robber things it's been saving up all year, and Barrett shorts his deep balls enough for Ray Taylor to have a GAME, and Gardner comes out like his old self, and Nussmeier finally debuts a fully integrated offense that's allowed to go deep, and Funchess decides the draft stock opportunity this provides is enough to GAF, and Norfleet runs one back, and there's no flags, and then Denard suddenly reveals he has another year of eligibility, and Jim Harbaugh flies down from his moon base on Apollo 17, and every kid Ohio State has visiting commits to him, and together they all make ice cream non-fattening, bring peace to the Middle East, and beat Ohio State 34-27.
[Jump for even more implausible scenarios.]
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Adam:
"We were able to put some things together that we hadn’t to that point. I wish I knew why, because we would have done it this far in the season. Hopefully we’ll be in that same kind of situation again where it’s neck and neck and we can put yourselves in a chance to win the game."
-Jack Miller on 2013 OSU, November 24, 2014
Oh. Okay. Now that my expectations have been reset from "maybe it'll be like last year" to "we still have nice helmets," let's talk miracles. I think it starts with Michigan coming out and putting pressure on Ohio State's secondary. That sounds stupid, but Michigan's had a 6'5 manbearchild who they've decided to deploy on a bunch of screens and crossing routes. You're going to have to take shots down the field to try and stretch them vertically. As Seth said, their LBs and DBs live off their athleticism, and allowing them to run roughshod near the line of scrimmage is asking for disaster.
The next miracle I'd ask for is Devin Gardner to be fully healthy. If you Michigan can integrate some designed runs for Gardner that's going to keep their defense honest enough to take the aforementioned shots down the field. Their defensive line is very talented but their coaches have them slant frequently, so they're prone to losing gap integrity at times.
Other necessary miracles: no dropped passes, no missed reads, no missed blocking assignments, gap integrity against the run, maintaining inside leverage against receivers, good clock management. What is that, eight miracles? Hmm. At least we still have nice helmets.
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Mathlete: Hit the turnover/big play jackpot. As a deserved 20 point dog, Michigan is going to need 4 or 5 defensive turnovers+big plays on offense. If Michigan really has a bunch of secret stuff waiting to pull out for this game. Then Brady Hoke is the most of Michigan of all coaches. Going to the coaching grave with a flailing listless offense he is holding back for The Game. Do I hope it's true, definitely, I guess.
At this point there doesn't seem much downside. Let's get a fluky win and say goodbye to Hoke. With Hackett apparently here for the long haul now, that's as good a signal as any that Michigan is ready to hire a new football coach. Let's channel our 2011 fumble luck and beat the Buckeyes and wish Hoke on his merry way.
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Ace: Mathlete is right on the nose with this, which says how desperate the scenario is because... well, who's betting on Michigan winning the turnover battle against anyone these days? But, heck, luck is involved to a certain extent there, and that (combined with the stout run defense) provides a small ray of hope.
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| In a world with Devin Gardner in it, all things are possible. [Upchurch] |
Last week's OSU/Indiana game gives something of a blueprint, though it also indicates just how much luck might need to be involved. Is Jalin Marshall going to fumble twice again? That would be nice. I'm not expecting it. Meanwhile, 11W's film guru par excellence Ross Fulton identified the issues on JT Barrett's two interceptions against the Hoosiers:
Both interceptions came off vertical routes after faking a wide receiver screen. According to Urban Meyer, the first interception resulted from miscommunication. The second was a drop by Evan Spencer. In addition, the Buckeyes missed at least three open crossing routes on first down that would have resulted in chunk yardage.
Miscommunication could happen again; Barrett's got ten picks this year and is still a first-year-starter freshman, and he's got some young receiving targets out there. Having a Buckeye receiver drop a ball into the waiting arms of a defender might be less repeatable.
My biggest concern is that Indiana got 3/4 of the way to an upset through a handful of explosive plays, including a 90-yard touchdown run by Tevin Coleman. Michigan doesn't have a Tevin Coleman, nor do they appear to have any plays designed to be explosive in the playbook. Okay, that's not quite fair—that fake punt went a long way last week. Feed Kerridge!
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BiSB: There is one realistic scenario in which Michigan wins this game: JT Barrett gets hurt.
If you want to draw a pretty picture of how the game COULD unfold, you can do so. Michigan's front seven keeps the Ohio State running game in check by committing heavily to the run, and JT Barrett misses the resulting open receivers downfield (as happened against Indiana a few times). On offense, Michigan neutralizes Ohio State's defensive line much the way they did last year, with a number of quick-hitters and screens. They get enough coverage busts for Funchess or Darboh or Norfleet to pick up some big chunk plays. A newly semi-healthy Devin Gardner picks up some first downs with his legs, and Mat Wile has a big day. They get a couple of turnovers on special teams, and all of a sudden it's the 4th quarter and it's still a ballgame.
But that's a pipe dream. Of course Michigan can win this game, but if they do, it won't be the result of any strategic master stroke or Varsity Blues Halftime Coming-Together speech. Michigan can't play the Double Eagle defense that VT used to stymy the Buckeyes in week 2. They can't recreate the weather conditions from Minnesota. And if this team had a cure-all, I'm guessing we would have seen it by now. If Michigan wins, it will be because football is stupid and sometimes stupid things happen. And it is because of those stupid irrational things that we watch. It is why we watch nervously against inferior teams and with hope against superior teams. Sports don't make a damn bit of sense sometimes.
There's your hope.
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Brian: Weird stuff happens in football, so Michigan just needs to get three touchdowns from somewhere that have nothing to do with playing offense without giving up any of their own. A punt return (that isn't called back), a muffed punt for OSU (Jalin Marshall's had some issues), and winning the TO battle would do it. And by "do it" I mean "keep the game relatively tight so Michigan has a chance to win in the fourth quarter."
I guess it could happen. Football is the king of low sample size. I have no expectation it will.