Preview: Villanova

THE ESSENTIALS

THE STAKES

The Legends Classic championship. More importantly, Michigan could record a signature non-conference win against a strong, experienced team that should be among the nation's best at the end of the season.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. %Min and %Poss figure are from this season now—yes, there will be a fair amount of noise in these numbers for a while. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open.

*returning starter

THE THEM

Michigan gets another step up in competition against a talented and experienced Villanova squad that returns all but one significant contributor from a 2013-14 team that won 29 games and earned a two-seed in the tourney before bowing out to eventual champion UConn. After a surprisingly close win over Bucknell last week, the Wildcats bounced back by dismantling VCU last night, outscoring them 45-23 in the second half after a tight opening 20 minutes.

Nova is a tough team to handle in large part because of their balance; seven players average over 18 minutes per game, four average double-digit points, and three more average at least seven. They're equally good on each end of the floor, as well, currently ranking seventh in offensive and 15th in defensive efficiency.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

Point guard Ryan Arcidiacono is the primary offensive initiator, and while hit shot hasn't fallen this season (10/36 FG) he's finding other ways to make a positive impact; he dished out nine assists against zero turnovers last night, adeptly handling the vaunted VCU press. While his career shooting numbers suggest this early-season slump isn't too far out of the ordinary, he's getting to the line frequently and converting his free throws at a 79% clip, which is right in line with his career numbers. He's also got eight steals through four games.

Two-guard Dylan Ennis, older brother of former Syracuse star and current Phoenix Suns point guard Tyler Ennis, has stepped into a much bigger role this year and done quite well with it. He's shooting well both inside and outside the arc, taking care of the ball, and making a surprising impact on the boards, especially on offense. After Michigan struggled yesterday against a small Oregon squad that crashed the offensive glass with aplomb, Ennis is one to watch—he'll make it more difficult for Derrick Walton and/or Caris LeVert to haul in defensive rebounds and get out on the break.

Wing Darrun Hilliard takes the highest percentage of the team's shots when he's on the floor, but so far that hasn't been a good thing: while he's an acceptable 12/25 inside the arc, he's hit just 4/21 long-range attempts. That's unlikely to last, however, as he hit 41% of his 169 three-pointers last season. He's also quite capable of getting to the rim, and he's dangerous on defense with 11 steals already this season.

The headliner for the Wildcats is preseason first-team all-conference selection JayVaughn Pinkston, a former McDonald's All-American who rebounds quite well, attacks the rim, and draws a ton of fouls. His finishing isn't elite and he runs into trouble when he can't get all the way to the hoop, but his ability to draw fouls makes up for much of that—he's a career 71% free-throw shooter.

The team's lone true big man, Daniel Ochefu, does big man stuff quite well; he's posting stellar rebounding rates on both ends of the court, erases or alters a lot of shots at the rim, and while he's not a skilled post-up guy he finishes very well at the basket while drawing a bunch of fouls. He has been a poor free-throw shooter so far in his career but is off to an 8/10 start from the line this season.

Primary backup guard Josh Hart plays starter-level minutes. He's a dangerous slasher and scorer at the hoop—not to mention another guy who gets to the line frequently—but he takes about half his shots from beyond the arc despite an iffy jump shot (31% career 3-pt). The main backup forward is Kris Jenkins, who's got a very strange statistical profile for a 6'6, 255-pound player: a high-volume shooter, he takes the vast majority of his shots from beyond the arc (37/102 career 3-pt) and on his career has been very poor converting at the rim or knocking down midrange shots. He also is a non-factor on the boards.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Sample size caveat very much applies.

Intriguing statistical matchups abound tonight. Michigan rarely coughs up the ball; Nova's in the top ten in forced turnover percentage and has been quite good in that regard for years. That'll be the key for Michigan's offense, as the Wildcats defense hasn't been very good when they're not getting opponents to give up the rock—opponents are hitting 51.1% of their two-pointers, and Nova's three-point defense (27.4% on an average percentage of opponent attempts) and free-throw "defense" (56.9%) are working at unsustainable levels.

On the other end, Nova takes care of the ball, draws a ton of fouls, and does very well on the boards; Michigan has been forcing a good number of turnovers, was remarkably good on the glass until last night, and as usual the Wolverines rarely send opponents to the line. There's some unsustainable numbers for the Wildcats here, too, but this time it works in their favor: an above-average three-point shooting team last season, they're shooting just 28.7% beyond the arc despite generating a ton of outside looks.

THE KEYS

Take care of the ball. Obvious, but paramount. This is more about generating points than preventing them, as Nova is actually a pretty poor transition scoring team; their defense looks pretty vulnerable so long as the turnovers don't pile up.

Doyle rules? After last night's breakout performance, this sure seems like a game in which Ricky Doyle is going to be Michigan's best option at center. Ochefu is a big man's big man with enough size to give Mark Donnal—who's had a hard time going up strong at the rim—and Max Bielfeldt serious problems inside. Ochefu was pretty foul-prone last year, however, and Doyle's been by far the best M big at drawing contact inside; pinning a few fouls on Nova's lone true big and best rebounder would make life a lot easier on both Michigan's big men and their slashing guards.

Stay woke. Michigan is still prone to blowing defensive assignments on the perimeter, and as outlined above, I don't think Nova is going to continue struggling so much with their three-point shooting—in fact, their shots started falling against VCU in the second half, and a tight game turned into a blowout. Ennis, Hilliard, and Jenkins are all capable outside shooters, and Pinkston can even stretch the floor a little bit. Communication and awareness will be key; a lack of both at least in part caused Kameron Chatman to get pulled in the second half against Oregon.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Villanova by 2.

In a game featuring two skilled teams still finding their way a little bit, the more experienced squad seems more likely to address their pressing issues this early in the season against a high-quality opponent.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. The Daily's Lev Facher on Doyle's breakout game:

Though the true highlights came on the offensive end, it was Doyle’s defensive efforts that kept him on the court. He cited his avoidance of “dumb fouls off the ball” as a strong point in his defensive effort.

“Defensively, I was doing what I practice,” Doyle said. “If I don’t foul and I do the right things, I’ll be able to stay in the game.”

Finally, I'd like to propose to the first two sentences of this Inside The Hall post:

This is what happens when your only rotational big man can’t defend the post. Indiana become helpless against the size of Venky Jois.

The rest is a pretty fun read, as well, provided you share my hatred of Indiana basketball. (And if you don't, what's wrong with you?)