If you can do this, we've got minutes for you [Upchurch]
Question by Ace:The biggest question Michigan hoops faced heading into this season was how the center position would hold up, and the focus went almost entirely on the three freshmen. Now, against the first team M played with a pulse, Max Bielfeldt went off, to the point that HAHA SETH DAVIS "MAXIMUS" WE GET IT WE ALSO GOT IT THE FIRST TWO DOZEN TIMES YOU CAN STOP NOW.
ANYWAY, now that we've got a small sample to work with, how do you see the minutes at the five shaking out? Is Bielfeldt at all for real, and what have you seen from the freshmen that's also informing your opinion?
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| Why would there be an 'a' in it if it's pronounced with a short 'e'? This makes less sense than a 6'7 center. [Upchurch] |
Seth: Max looked awesome, and bigs get better with time, but my expectations for him haven't changed from pre-season. Those expectations were for significant improvement toward a ceiling that's still below what we want as a starter. I think once Michigan's playing teams who aren't Division II or a Patriot League power in a down year, we'll look back on this as the Bielfeldt game. The standard comparison for a 6'7 center is Wes Unseld, but 6'7 in the 1970s is 6'9 today; Mitch McGary was more Unseld. When Bucknell could get the ball down low to their guy named Nana, Bielfeldt couldn't hang; he looked to give up three inches to a guy who's listed 6'9.
Donnal (apparently this is pronounced "Don-ELLE"?) again got the starter's run and I think he remains Option 1A. He's merely efficient and clearly the weak point of the starting five, but in an alternate universe where the NCAA isn't the dumbest organization on the planet I would expect Donnal to be getting minutes behind McGary.
After the non-conference you'll be seeing way more Doyle. He's definitely looked the most raw of the four fives. He also looks big--like as big as McGary—and the scattershot results of his minutes have pocked things Max and Donnal never will. The best case scenario for Michigan is to slowly ease Doyle into more minutes so he's a viable option against the larger Big Ten teams.
We saw a bit more Wilson this time, and nothing changed my feelings that he's a four. My guess is he's not seeing time there because Michigan desperately wants someone to emerge at the five. My guess is this is what's causing a lot of the slowness in progression that Beilein mentioned, because he's a freshman and learning to play center is like a five-year journey, not to mention Beilein's system and all its quirks. He does make some cool defensive plays, but the Smotrycz is strong with this one. Watching him trying to help down low then swing out out the wing gave me a renewed appreciation for the guys who could do that.
So post time:
Early season: 50% Donnal, 25% Bielfeldt, 25% Wilson/Doyle
Big Ten season: 41% Donnal, 40% Doyle, 19% Bielfeldt/Wilson.
[Jump for Ace disagrees with everybody]
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Ace: I have to start with the end of Seth's portion, because I strongly disagree with his take on Wilson. In the very limited time he's been out there, I think he's looked more comfortable at the five, and I also think that's where he has the most potential in this system. At the four, he's tasked with more movement on the perimeter and more cutting, and thus far he hasn't looked particularly comfortable with either; his timing isn't there yet, and it's sometimes messing up the spacing that's so important for this (and any) offense. At the five, however, he's able to keep it a little simpler: set a bunch of screens, pass out of the high post—which he's shown flashes of being very good at—and then crash the boards.
His defensive game also works best at the five, in my opinion. Yes, he gave up a relatively easy basket to Bucknell's center, but he came back a couple possessions later and did a nice job of fighting for position—while Bucknell's center initially looked like he'd get a good post-up opportunity, Wilson slid in late so he couldn't work his way into the paint and had to kick it out. Then there's his length, which has already proven quite useful in the shot-blocking department. Finally, I can't at all get on board with the Smotrycz thing, because Wilson is miles ahead in the athleticism department:
He hedges the point guard all the way out to the dang midcourt logo, gets back to his man, and there's nothing there for Bucknell. With how much Michigan is focusing on having their bigs simply box out and let the other guys do much of the rebounding, I think Wilson has the potential to make a big impact at center as the season goes along; his strength deficiency compared to many centers will come into play mostly when other teams are trying to post him up, and there simply aren't a lot of teams these days that run much offense through the post. (Plus, Michigan can play the matchup with their four centers anyway.)
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| Put the ball and Donnal near the basket and chances are he finishes [Upchurch] |
So, yeah, there's my lengthy aside on Wilson. As for the rest, it's still very early to jump to conclusions, but I've been pleasantly surprised with what I've seen so far. Donnal may not be firing away from deep just yet, but he's finishing his chances at the rim, blocking some shots, and I love how active he is on the offensive glass with those tap-outs—his ability to keep possessions alive is reason enough to put him out there given the surrounding talent.
Doyle still looks a little limited by his ankle thing; I expect his role to expand substantially as the season wears on, especially since he's already finishing around the basket with tantalizing efficiency (5/6 FG in two games, plus 4/5 FT). He rebounds like a guy that big should rebound, and his size is going to get him on the court for defensive purposes against bigger teams.
Bielfeldt's explosion was, of course, a very pleasant surprise, to the point that I no longer see him dropping out of the rotation entirely; there's certainly a place on this team for a solid-rebounding, floor-stretching center, even if he's significantly undersized. His physical limitations remain, and as such it's hard for me to see him getting a ton of run during conference play, but it looks like Michigan will be comfortable putting him out there for short stretches—and, occasionally, getting rewarded with some unexpected points.
Splitting these minutes becomes pretty difficult now, and I think it'll vary from game-to-game as Beilein plays the matchup. Doyle's going to get significant time against teams like Iowa that can put a seven-footer (and a 6'10" backup) out there, while Wilson might get more burn against a squad like Illinois that doesn't have an interior force (sorry, Nnanna, but being 6'10" doesn't automatically qualify you). I still think those two are going to eat into Bielfeldt's time, and if Donnal or Wilson start hitting outside shots then Max's role may disappear completely—he's still a minus defensively, so if his shot isn't falling, there's not much reason to put him out there.
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Alex: A take on each of the four guys:
Donnal. Probably the best-positioned of the younger bigs, though that really isn't saying a whole lot. His work on the glass has been fine, though he can't crash the offensive boards like Doyle can. The supposed shooting prowess hasn't shown up yet, but it's still early. So far: safe, unspectacular, reliable, consistent—which we will surely accept as a year-long thing if he can keep it up.
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| The fans will like this as well [Upchurch] |
Doyle. I'm still not sure what to think of him. Beilein said something along the lines of "the fans will love his little hook shot" and I definitely do; his level of skill has been the most impressive thing to me—we knew he was going to be huge, but he can move alright and has a fair amount of coordination. I'm not convinced he will be able to go beast-mode on real teams.
Wilson. I like D.J. at the five if only because Michigan can really commit to a very open, well-spaced offensive with five guys who can create, without sacrificing too much on defense and on the glass. That said, Wilson's looked lost and has made the wrong reads and cuts and been in the wrong place on offense far too much. Being hurt for the Italy trip really hurt him. He might have the highest ceiling, but he's probably the worst option of the four right now.
BI3LF3LDT. Max had a career game against Bucknell and proved that he should be at least a rotation or situational guy at worst, but he's simply too small to play the five a ton against teams with credible size. His spacing is very valuable and you'd think he could see minutes at the four (which we don't know) and he can drag centers away from the basket while playing at the five. Can't board well though.
35% - Donnal, 30% - Doyle, 25% - Bielfeldt, 10% - Wilson. I think Beilein will go with whoever looks the best early on in a given game.
A rock-solid plan for minutes allocation will wait until at least the Big Ten season and we might not ever get one.
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Brian: Bielfeldt's time will depend heavily on matchups. Can Bielfeldt go up against Frank Kaminsky? Absolutely not. That's asking for Kaminski to go 9/10 from the floor. Could he match up against, say, Gavin Schilling? Nnanna Egwu? I could see that, especially with Michigan's DREB strategy heavily dependent on boxing guys out while the guards go grab the ball.
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| Wilson's lank is an asset at the four but a liability at the five. [Fuller] |
As I mentioned in the Bucknell bullets, I can see him at the four as well. It's naturally a position where sitting in the corner waiting for a kickout makes sense, and against guys who are not big parts of the opposition offense that might be a curveball that helps. Chatman's shooting is currently sag-worthy, so if they're packing it in Bielfeldt could provide a Kenny Kaminski-esque lift.
I am a broken record when it comes to minutes at the 5: it may take a while for Doyle to get there but I think that at some point he's going to seem like the best option. His conditioning is at a low ebb right now—he participated only sporadically in the open practice and is still recovering from an ankle issue--but he has size no one else brings and has displayed an ability to finish, hit free throws, and get some mansome rebounds. Until then, Donnal should occupy Morgan-like PT. Hopefully his stroke gets going here; he is seriously skilled.
Long-term I think Wilson is destined for the 4 and I'm struggling to understand why he's being almost exclusively deployed at the 5. (I mean, I get what Michigan's plan is: 30 minutes of Chatman and 10 of Irvin. I just question whether Chatman is so far ahead of the competition that he should be virtually guaranteed 30 minutes.) I can't agree with Alex—once big-large people enter the picture, Wilson's slight frame is going to be an issue. Bielfeldt may not be able to grab rebounds over 6'10" guys but he has mass and leverage to push them out of good spots. Wilson is going to be put where the opposing center wants him to be before the ball hits the rim. And he's going to get backed down all day. In that particular way it does feel like Wilson is the equivalent of putting Smotrycz at the 5.
If you made me put a number on it I'd say by the end of the year minutes are 40% Donnal, 40% Doyle, 10% Bielfeldt, 10% Wilson, with the latter two getting some extra run at the 4.
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Alex: You're right about Wilson at the five - for this season. He's gonna get bullied by bulkier centers and the hope is that he'll put on enough size during Michigan's apparently amazing "Camp Sanderson" to be able to play at the five someday. Right now it's just because we don't have enough bodies where we say "oh, okay, you can give us 20 or more good minutes on a given night" so Wilson's there out of necessity. He is a long-term prospect though; I can't get over the idea of a rangy, long, shot-blocking five who can shoot well enough and create off the dribble. Those are so rare.
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BiSB: I worry that we didn't learn much about Maximus that we didn't already know. Maximus. Get it? Like that movie. But his name is Max. Which sounds like Maximus, which sounds like a fancy way of saying "maximum."
Maximus.
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| Calvmaximus. |
Anyway, the book on the Calves of Glory has been that he can bang with guys his size, but there aren't many his size. Bucknell was running a 6'9", 227 pound freshman and a 6'8", 219 pound senior. It's hard to see Bielfeldt being able to do much more than keep his head above water against the Frank Kaminsky or Amir WIlliams or AJ Hammons. Maybe he gives Michigan some quality time against Matt Costello, but I doubt it. He's a more polished version of a poor man's Mark Donnal with a lower ceiling. That said, the "what happens if one of the freshmen gets hurt or doesn't pan out" worst-case scenario seems a lot brighter than it did a few days ago.
Between the freshman, I'm inclined to agree with Brian that Ricky Doyle will be getting the lion's share of the reps at the five by the time conference play rolls around. Despite being roughly the same size, Doyle just seems to be playing bigger than Donnal at this point. Donnal seems tentative; he's got fantastic upside, but he needs to channel his inner JMo, which takes time. I think Donnal might get more comfortable more quickly if he gets more minutes at the four, but I dream. And while I want to see DJ Wilson is get more minutes, I don't see the position for him right now. He's still too small to play the five (get thee to the Pizza Hut, young man), and he doesn't quite have the grasp of the system to play the four. So for now, I think he's just picking up scraps whenever/wherever a long bouncy athlete is needed.
If I had to guess, it's Ricky Doyle 45%, Mark Donnal 35%, Wilson 10%, Maximus "Maximus" Bielfeldt 10%.
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Ace: I'm still trying to figure out how the heck Doyle is only listed at five pounds heavier than Donnal, because...
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Alex: During the exhibition game, I overheard some dude in the student section tell a buddy that "[Ricky Doyle] is like Mitch McGary." First off: The Big Puppy was a rare and beautiful thing that approximated like, uh, Chris Webber (just white and a little more enthusiastic?). Secondly: they're both big. We just needed someone who's big. Mitch was big, Ricky is big.