The Weekly Six: Leaves Some Points on the Field

[Fuller]

1. The Four Factors

*TD’s are treated as 7 points regardless of PAT outcome

So Michigan had the field position for 35 points…and scored 10. Only 11 times this season has an offense left more than 25 points on the table in a game. With over 6 touchdowns worth of points left on the field, #M00N was the third worst game of the year in terms of points scored versus field position. Clemson-Louisville was slightly ahead and Saturday’s lead-in game of Penn State versus Indiana was the worst of the year at 43.5 points below expected.

Season results

(National Rank/B1G Rank)

Saturday’s game pushed Michigan to roughly neutral on field position for the year. The 2010 vs 2014 season mirror image continues in earnest. The offense can’t convert 60% of it’s first downs, is bottom ten in explosive plays is an absolutely anemic unit. The defense has struggled against the better teams, but is still top 20 in conversion rate and has done very well in limiting big plays and red zone scoring.

If you are wondering how Michigan isn’t last in Bonus Yards in the Big Ten, despite being in the bottom 8, we have our opponents from Saturday to thank. Northwestern is second worst nationally, behind only Wake Forest which is threatening to set records for their lack of explosiveness.

2. Individual Performances

Devin Gardner: –9.8, –26% on 28 plays

Drake Johnson: –0.8, –2% on 10 plays

De’Veon Smith: +1.2, +13% on 18 plays

Devin Funchess: –3.3, –7% on 7 plays

The –9.8 for Gardner is before the opponent adjustment pushes it down another point. Gardner’s 3 lowest rated games of his career are Northwestern, Utah and Michigan State from this season. It’s like he was on a Saw movie and said if you don’t want to be killed by your offensive line, you have to fight to survive by starting over in a new system in which you will fail miserably. I am thankful Devin has fought to survive, but I can’t believe what he’s become.

In terms of the running backs, I don’t know what to say at this point. The statement from Hoke saying he is going with a hot hand is just silly. Hot hand is a pretty controversial concept to prove over large stretches, to think that one RB is performing better than another based on a handful of carries that are largely dependent on the guys in front is just silliness. This football season, man.

3. Game Chart

6. +12.7% Michigan stuffs Northwestern on second and goal (late Q4)

5. +13.1% Northwestern’s 4th down pass falls incomplete (mid Q3)

4. +14.9% Jehu Chesson recovers the muffed punt (mid Q3)

3. –20.5% Raymon Taylor’s pass interference gives Northwestern a 1st and Goal (late Q4)

2. –21.0% Devin Gardner is intercepted (-5.2%) and returned 79 yards (-15.8%) (late Q3)

1. +40.8% Frank Clark Shuts down the two point conversion (late Q4)

Michigan’s best play on offense was the 16 yard completion to Jake Butt on the final field goal drive, worth about 5.5%. No rush or pass play made the top 6 for anything good that happened to either offense. Raymon Taylor PI was the closest thing.

4. Dumb Punt of the Week

Since I have been slacking the last few weeks we’re going to go back a bit to pick what may be the dumbest punt of all time, at least in the first quarter.

Arkansas has a hard luck season, they are in the loaded SEC West and haven’t won an SEC game in over two years. So far this season they lost then #6 Texas A&M in overtime and then #7 Alabama by 1 after a blocked PAT. So with a shot at the #1 team in the country in Mississippi State, they would pull out all the stops to get the win, right? It was early and Arkansas had a 3-0 lead and was driving. After getting the ball down to the MSU 32 yardline, the Razorbacks faced a 4th and 1. Obviously since this is DPotW, you know what happens next.

Arkansas would go on to lose 17-10; I’m sure they would love to have another possession with less than 40 yards to go to have a shot at OT, but that went out the door with the punt team. Since 2003, the only case I can find of a more egregious punt was in 2009 UConn punted on 4th and 1 from the Ohio 31.

Submissions are no closed, Dumb Punt of the Year voting is now closed.

5. Harbaugh

As you may have heard, Michigan may be looking for a new head coach and there is message board rumblings that it could be Jim Harbaugh. Not that he needs much introduction but I did want to put together a couple of quick graphics on how his Stanford teams performed.

Team Performance: Stanford vs Michigan

Harbaugh years in yellow, y-axis is opponent adjusted points versus average.

You can’t get a much more dramatic change than Stanford experienced in the four years under Harbaugh. They went from the bottom of the Power 5 and nearly 9 points below average prior to him joining to over 15 points above average in his final season, with improvement demonstrated in each and every season. He even left the program in strong hands with Offensive Coordinator David Shaw taking the reigns and keeping results at a still high level. From an on-field perspective, it doesn’t get any better than this. Took a program not doing well, consistently improved them, built up a strong staff that could continue at a high level after he left, but still demonstrating that he added some value while on the sideline.

On a side note, that blue line should silence any remaining voices about the viability of Hoke’s retention, independent of season outcome. That is four consecutive years of production decline, going to take some pretty amazing performances for 2014 to even end close to 2013, which obviously wasn’t great.

Recruiting Performance: Stanford versus Michigan

Stanford is a tough place to recruit at a high level and Michigan has traditionally operated at a different tier than Stanford. Harbaugh wasn’t able to turn around recruiting momentum immediately the way a James Franklin type would, but you can see by the 2009-2010 results that once the wins started coming, Harbaugh was able to raise the Cardinal recruiting profile, which has remained high in his absence. Based on this limited evidence, it would appear that Harbaugh is likely not an elite recruiter, but one more than capable of recruiting at a high level.

6. Predictions

Basketball season will be more fun than football!