This was Northwestern's second completion beyond the sticks. It wasn't their day.
Northwestern took on Iowa and their top-25 FEI defense last weekend. Let's see how that went:
Holy hell, Northwestern. Turns out that Kain Colter guy was pretty valuable.
Personnel. Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
I originally had center Brandon Vitabile as a dangerman, but removed that tag after watching the film—it wasn't a good day for the interior line.
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Spread. Northwestern took every non-goal line snap out of the gun in the first half, which was as much as I was willing or able to watch for this one.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? The Wildcats actually mixed in a couple power runs out of the gun, but for the most part they were running inside zone and zone stretch, the latter of which was marginally more successful.
Hurry it up or grind it out? Northwestern varied their tempo a bit, mostly staying at a relatively pedestrian pace. They can go no-huddle if they want, but it doesn't seem like that's a huge emphasis right now.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Trevor Siemian, your receivers are all covered and your pocket is holding strong. What are you going to do?
Oh. I see.
You get a 2.
Dangerman: Northwestern pulled in probably their best recruiting class ever in 2014, and its already paying off in the form of top-200 four-star Justin Jackson, who's wrested the running back job away from returning starter Trayvon Green. He recorded three straight 100-yard games before tallying 96 (albeit on just 4 YPC) against Iowa, and while the Hawkeyes largely shut him down he showed flashes of what's made him so productive this season.
Jackson is a smooth, upright runner with quick feet, good patience, and surprising power for a back with his frame:
He's also a natural receiver out of the backfield; Jackson's 13 catches places him fourth on the entire team, and though those are almost exclusively dumpoff passes, he's got the open-field ability to do something with them.
Zook Factor: Nothing noteworthy here. Northwestern couldn't get themselves remotely close enough on third downs to make bad punts a factor.
HenneChart: Again, this only covers the first half, but given Siemian's final stat line—8/18, 68 yards, 5 sacks taken—I'd say it's pretty representative:
| Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR | SCR | DSR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 1 | 6 (2) | -- | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -- | 45% |
Northwestern barely tried to go downfield even though they were playing from way behind for almost the entire game. Two major issues prevented them from doing this: the offensive line struggled to hold their blocks and the receivers struggled to get open. That's a bad combo, obviously. Siemian wasn't exactly stellar, but he made a few very nice throws without much reward; one of his BRs came not on a bad pass, but the inexplicable decision to run into a sack that was clipped above.
OVERVIEW
Spread?
| Formations | Run | Pass | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gun | 12 | 14 | -- |
| I-Form | -- | -- | -- |
| Ace | -- | -- | -- |
| Heavy | 1 | -- | -- |
Yup, spread.
The Wildcats tried to establish the run on early downs, but as you can see they were not at all successful in staying on schedule, leading to a lot of obvious passing situations:
| Down | Run | Pass | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | 2 | -- |
| 2nd | 4 | 6 | -- |
| 3rd | -- | 6 | -- |
Only one of those third-down attempts came within remotely reasonable distance for a called run; Northwestern had these distances to cover to convert third downs in the first half: 18 yards (twice), 12 yards, 11 yards, 10 yards, and 2 yards. They convered the latter two, though the third-and-ten completion ended in the hilarious fumble at the top of the post.
So, yeah, this was bad. Northwestern's problems started up front, where Iowa dominated their interior line. This simply isn't supposed to happen:
This is also bad:
Siemian got a lot of pressure right in his face, resulting in a couple pass attempts being batted right back at him, and the Wildcat backs didn't have any room to operate on the interior. Iowa does boast an excellent pair of DTs in Carl Davis and Lucas Trinca-Pasat, but I think Michigan can replicate a fair amount of their success.
The tackles didn't fare a whole lot better than the interior line. Trinca-Pasat recorded one of his three sacks on a stunt in which he thoroughly manhandled left tackle Paul Jorgensen. The off-tackle runs didn't produce a lot and often required Jackson to pick through a fair amount of traffic. This isn't a strong group up front for Northwestern despite boasting quite a lot of experience.
It's tough to say a whole lot about the rest of the offense. Jackson looks good when he has room; he's definitely more explosive than Green, who's role has diminished to the point that he's seen just two carries over the last two games. Sophomore Warren Long ended up getting 11 carries against Iowa, but only after the outcome was long decided. For the most part, it's Jackson or bust for this offense.
That's in large part because the receiving corps dearly misses the presence of injured #1 wideout Christian Jones and Colter, who gave the team a dynamic option in the slot when he wasn't at QB. Nobody in this group is a downfield threat.
Kyle Prater—yes, finally starting—is averaging 9.8 yards on his team-high 29 receptions; Tony Jones is at 9.9, slot Miles Shuler at 8.3, and H-back Dan Vitale leads the top targets with an electric 10.9-yard average. Shuler, who sat out practice on Wednesday, may not even be available. Pat Fitzgerald isn't mincing words about this group:
Asked to evaluate the recent play of [the receivers], Fitzgerald replied, "Horrible."
Dropped passes, running the wrong routes, blocking?
"Sure, keep going," Fitzgerald said.
So that's not good.
Northwestern's offense ranks a hair below Indiana's going by the advanced metrics, and that seems about right; IU has the worse quarterback situation even with Siemian struggling mightily, but they also have Tevin Coleman, and Jackson isn't on that level yet. If Michigan allows 20 points to this group, that would constitute a major disappointment.