Previously: Gardening Lessons (The Story), Preview Podcast, Preseason All-Big Ten Teams, Point Guards, Wings Part 1 (LeVert, Irvin), Wings Part 2 (Chatman, Wilson, Dawkins, MAAR), Bigs (Donnal, Doyle, Bielfeldt), Media Day Player Interviews, Big Ten Newcomers
The hoops preview returns after a brief AD-chaos-related absence; in fact, Alex already got the jump on me this week with his impressively thorough look at the top newcomers to the Big Ten. It's time for me to also turn my attention to the conference at large. Today, I'll take a look at how I expect the bottom half of the conference to shake out. The "Wisconsin & Friends" portion will go up later this week.
8. Illinois (Last Year: 20-15, 7-11 B1G, lost 2nd round of NIT)
oh was it ever so tempting to put Stauskas' end-of-half buzzer-beater here [Fuller]
Head Coach: Jon Groce; 128-84 career, 43-28 at Illinois (3rd year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 38th (#10 B1G)
Key Returners: G Kendrick Nunn, G/F Rayvonte Rice, C Nnanna Egwu
Key Losses: G Tracy Abrams (injury), F Joseph Bertrand, F Jon Ekey
Top Newcomers: G Aaron Cosby (transfer), G Ahmad Starks (transfer), F Leron Black
My #8 team in the Big Ten—and KenPom's #10—should make a push for the NCAA tournament bubble, in case you were wondering about the depth of the conference this year. Illinois gets a solid influx of talent in Jon Groce's third year while bringing back several key pieces from last season's NIT squad.
After finishing as the worst-shooting team in the conference last year, the Illini get a big boost in that regard from a pair of transfers, Aaron Cosby (39% 3-pt at Seton Hall) and Ahmad Starks (39.5% at Oregon State, where he holds the school record for most 3PM). The diminutive Starks, a shoot-first point with a solid outside shot and iffy efficiency elsewhere, should step right into the starting point guard spot to replace Tracy Abrams, who will miss the season with a torn ACL. Cosby should also get a big role in the rotation, likely splitting minutes on the wing with sophomore guard Kendrick Nunn.
Nunn and Rayvonte Rice give the Illini a pair of solid slashers off the wing, and while Rice's shooting comes and goes, Nunn connected well from deep as a freshman last season. The team is a little lacking in the frontcourt, however. Nnanna Egwu, their lanky no-offense, all-defense center, returns for his senior season; he is what he is at this point. Sophomore Malcolm Hill should split minutes at the four with top-50 freshman Leron Black; Hill emerged as a decent stretch four option as last season went along, while Black is the more physical and athletic option, which may be preferable next to Egwu.
The Illini should be a strong defensive team again this year; if they want to earn an invitation to the Big Dance, however, they'll have to be a much more efficient offensive squad. The addition of Cosby and Starks should help, but it'll take a more disciplined Rice (30% on 156 3PA in '13-14) and perhaps a breakout year from Nunn for them to really take the next step forward.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the bottom half of the Big Ten.]
9. Maryland (Last Year: 17-15, 9-9 ACC, no postseason)
hey, I know you
Head Coach: Mark Turgeon; 309-202 career, 59-43 at Maryland (4th year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 33rd (#7 B1G)
Key Returners: G Dez Wells, F Jake Layman, F Evan Smotrycz
Key Losses: G Seth Allen (transfer), G/F Nick Faust (transfer), C Charles Mitchell (transfer), C Shaquille Cleare (transfer)
Top Newcomers: G Melo Trimble, G Dion Wiley, G/F Jared Nickens, F Michal Cekovsky, G Richaud Pack (transfer)
Maryland looked to have a very deep group of returners for their first season in the Big Ten, but then about half the team transferred out during the offseason—starting point guard Seth Allen, starting small forward Nick Faust, and the team's top two centers, Charles Mitchell and Shaquille Cleare, all left the program with eligibility remaining.
Now a lot is going to be put on the back of senior shooting guard Dez Wells, though he'll get some help in the form of talented freshman combo guard Melo Trimble, who'll slide into the starting point guard spot in Allen's absence. The Terps also get a boost from grad-year transfer Richaud Pack, a very efficient scorer on an otherwise terrible North Carolina A&T squad last season.
The Terrapins should be able to spread the floor quite well, as returning forwards Jake Layman and Evan Smotrycz—yes, the former Michigan transfer—both connect at a solid rate from beyond the arc, though both have their shortcomings in the post. Former Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter should give the team much-needed inside muscle; 7'1" freshman Michal Cekovsky may also find himself a role up front.
There's plenty of talent on this squad, though the sheer number of transfers raises some questions about Turgeon's coaching style—is this a team that will play up to its potential? They'll need a lot of production from new faces if they're going to make a push for the NCAA tournament this year, though that's certainly not out of the question.
10. Indiana (Last Year: 17-15, 7-11 B1G, no postseason)
Indiana point guard Yogi Ferrell (#11) could use more help this season. [Fuller]
Head Coach: Tom Crean; 291-193 career, 101-97 at Indiana (7th year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 26th (#5 B1G)
Key Returners: G Yogi Ferrell, G Stanford Robinson, F Troy Williams
Key Losses: F Noah Vonleh, G Will Sheehy, G Evan Gordon
Top Newcomers: G James Blackmon, G Robert Johnson, F Nick Zeisloft (transfer)
Oy, Indiana. The Hoosiers are the highest-ranked team on KenPom among the six Big Ten squads he predicts to finish 9-9 in conference play, but off-court issues seem poised to derail Indiana's season before it begins.
Fire Crean? No, I'm not saying that. Not because of what happened this weekend when one IU player, freshman forward Emmitt Holt, seriously injured another -- Davis, a sophomore forward from Warren Central -- after drinking underage and driving.
But IU basketball needs to enter the realm of Zero Tolerance 2.0.
Let Crean know – let a group of players who no doubt love their coach know – that one more incident like Holt being cited for illegal consumption of alcohol and for operating under the influence of alcohol under the age of 21 ... or Yogi Ferrell and Stanford Robinson being cited in April for underage drinking and having fake ID's ... or Hanner Mosquera-Perea being arrested in February for operating a vehicle while impaired … and Crean's gone.
It's hard to figure out what to do with this team. They've got one of the top point guards in the country in Yogi Ferrell, one of the top incoming freshman scorers in guard James Blackmon, and one of the nation's best athletes in forward Troy Williams. They also underachieved mightily last year, have a huge hole at center—pinning their hopes on Mosquera-Perea finally getting his act together this year—and now face increased scrutiny after the Holt/Davis accident.
To me, this team faces far too many questions to put them at the top of this group, let alone as high as fifth in the Big Ten. Losing Noah Vonleh to the draft, though expected, is a huge blow to both the talent and depth in the frontcourt; now Davis is out for the foreseeable future, and this on a team that finished 11th in the B1G in two-point defense last season. With team rebounding poised to fall down towards average without Vonleh, it's unclear what this team will excel at outside of backcourt scoring from Farrell and Blackmon.
Of course, the Hoosiers have the talent to pull together and crack the top half of the conference, but they had plenty of talent and fewer distractions in 2013-14 and still failed to make the postseason. My guess is they'll finish in the same range this season.
11. Northwestern (Last Year: 14-19, 6-12 B1G, no postseason)
Northwestern boasted a surprisingly stout defense in 2013-14. [Fuller]
Head Coach: Chris Collins; 14-19 career, 14-19 at Northwestern (2nd year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 77th (#13 B1G)
Key Returners: G Tre Demps, G JerShon Cobb, C Alex Olah
Key Losses: F Drew Crawford
Top Newcomers: F Vic Law, G Bryant McIntosh, G Johnnie Vassar
This is admittedly a bit of a reach, as KenPom believes Northwestern to be significantly below the caliber of Penn State and Purdue, and closer to the frightening depths of Rutgers. The Wildcats found a surprising new identity, however, in their first year under Chris Collins, and with some improvement on offense—like, say, actually attempting to rebound the ball—could get them to the middle of the conference pack.
The loss of leading scorer Drew Crawford is a big one, especially for a team that finished 309th in offensive efficiency. The onus largely falls on JerShon Cobb to pick up where Crawford left off as the team's all-around scoring threat; Tre Demps provides passable outside shooting, but otherwise the returners lack scoring punch.
Thankfully, Collins reeled in a recruiting class that far surpasses the standard in Evanston, headlined by top-100 forward Vic Law, a versatile player who does a lot of things well and can defend multiple positions. Freshman guards Bryant McIntosh and Johnnie Vassar could immediately eat up most of returning point guard Dave Sobolewski's minutes, which wouldn't be a bad thing after Sobocop posted a paltry 81.0 ORtg last season.
The strength of this team, though, lies on defense, where they put up the #14 efficiency rating in the country last year. Seven-footer Alex Olah is an intimidating shot-blocker, and the guys around him have really bought into Collins' emphasis on total effort on that end of the floor. Because the Wildcats have a ready-made team identity, I like them a little bit more than the next three teams on this list.
12. Penn State (Last Year: 16-18, 6-12 B1G, lost 2nd round of CBI)
"Wait, Tim Frazier doesn't have infinite eligibility?" [Fuller]
Head Coach: Pat Chambers; 80-86 career, 38-58 at PSU (4th year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 56th (#12 B1G)
Key Returners: G DJ Newbill, F Brandon Taylor, F Donovan Jack
Key Losses: G Tim Frazier
Top Newcomers: G Shep Garner
After starring for Penn State since the Industrial Revolution, do-everything point guard Tim Frazier has finally hung up the kicks, leaving a significant hole for coach Pat Chambers to fill in Happy Valley. The good news is the rest of last year's team returns, including very productive shooting guard DJ Newbill; the bad news is they need to find somebody to run the squad, and that somebody may very well be a true freshman.
Newbill gives the team a quality scoring threat, while bigs Brandon Taylor and Donovon Jack can each score both inside and outside. None of the significant contributors from last season shot the ball particularly well from beyond the arc, however, and with the same group of big men to pick from the team's rebounding woes don't project to get much better in 2014-15, too.
Then, of course, the team has to replace Frazier, who had 182 of the team's 384 assists last season. Last year's backup point guard, Graham Woodward, did little more than spot up and shoot in very limited minutes; if he's not the man to replace Frazier, that job might fall to true freshman Shep Garner, a combo guard who can handle the point if needed.
I'm of the mind that this team is going to sorely miss Frazier on the offensive end of the court, and their middling defense should stay, well, middling, especially without Frazier there to record 50+ steals. If the young forwards round out their games, there's a chance I'm underrating this squad, but I know Northwestern is going to at least do one thing well—defense—and I'm not sure the same can be said about Penn State.
13. Purdue (Last Year: 15-17, 5-13 B1G, no postseason)
Head Coach: Matt Painter; 216-117 career, 191-112 at Purdue (10th year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 40th (#11 B1G)
Key Returners: C AJ Hammons, G/F Kendall Stephens, F Basil Smotherman
Key Losses: G Terone Johnson, G Ronnie Johnson (transfer), F Errick Peck
Top Newcomers: C Isaac Haas, F Vince Edwards, G Jon Octeus (transfer)
I'm not sure what it is about Indiana programs and inexplicable collapses, but Purdue fell hard in the second half of 2013-14, finishing 2-12 after a 13-5 start to the season. After leading the Boilermakers to six straight NCAA tournament appearances from 2007-2012, Matt Painter may very well be coaching for his job this season.
That would make me quite nervous if I'm Matt Painter, because his team's best player, center AJ Hammons, is also its most enigmatic; sometimes he looks like a lottery prospect, and sometimes he looks like there are a large number of things he'd rather do than play basketball. At his best, he's a fearsome rebounder and shot-blocker with soft touch around the basket; at his worst, he's a turnstile on defense—often going for ill-advised block attempts when he should be positioning for a rebound—and a disinterested participant on offense.
Purdue also lost both Johnson brothers from last year's squad, and the concern there is the fact that their loss is concerning; while both were high-volume, low-efficiency players, the guys in line to replace them—Kendall Stephens and Bryson Scott—fit a similar mold. Four-star freshman Vince Edwards should see big minutes right away, but shooting isn't his forte, and that's what this team needs above all else; Edwards at least provides solid rebounding and defense, and he's capable of attacking the basket.
This squad didn't do much of anything well last season, finishing 8th in the B1G in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency, and their makeup looks pretty similar this time around. If Painter can find a way to keep Hammons consistently motivated, Purdue could shoot up this list; if Hammons isn't buying it, Painter could be at a new job this time next year.
14. Rutgers (Last Year: 12-21, 5-13 AAC, no postseason)
Head Coach: Eddie Jordan; 12-21 career, 12-21 at Rutgers (2nd year)
Preseason KenPom Ranking: 103rd (#14 B1G)
Key Returners: G Myles Mack, F Kadeem Jack, F Junior Etou
Key Losses: G JJ Moore, F/C Wally Judge
Top Newcomers: F DJ Foreman, G Mike Williams
After finishing just two games out of last place in the American Athletic Conference last season, Rutgers doesn't have high expectations in their first year in the Big Ten; while the order of the rest of the bottom four B1G squads is up for debate, the pundits have universally pegged the Scarlet Knights for last.
It's not hard to see why. The team's top option is a 5'9" point guard with an iffy shooting stroke (Myles Mack), their second a big man who shoots under 50% from inside the arc (Kadeem Jack). Meanwhile, they lost their most effective rebounder and shot-blocker in graduated big man Wally Judge, which only adds to the biggest question facing this team—can they defend Big Ten teams?
Rutgers allowed 1.11 points per possession in AAC play last season and was ranked 201st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. While Rutgers’ defense fell in the middle of the pack in the AAC, it would have been the worst defense in the Big Ten by as wide of a margin as separated 12th from sixth.
Yikes. Best of luck, Rutgers.