Get well soon, Shane [AP]
1. The Four Factors
| Expected Pts | Conversion Rate | Bonus Yards | Red Zone | |
| Michigan | 18.9 | 50.0% | 1.06 | 7.0 |
| Minnesota | 32.3 | 68.2% | 2.37 | 7.0 |
Surprisingly, this game was close to a draw once you account for field position (the return TD inflates the expected points number). We have another game to add to the defense is good but not great line and another heaping helping of this is a dysfunctional offense.
Michigan’s conversion rate of 50% is woeful. For the season, only SMU, North Texas and Eastern are below 50%. Michigan had no business being at that rate against Minnesota. The 1.06 bonus yards would also be 4th worst in the nation, for a season. But hey, the red zone streak continues. You can’t stop Michigan once they get to the red zone, but you definitely can before they get there.
For the Season [Value (National Rank/B1G Rank)]
| Expected Pts | Conversion Rate | Bonus Yards | Red Zone | |
| Offense | 24.3 (94/12) | 66.3% (90/9) | 2.51 (50/8) | 6.0 (20/2) |
| Defense | 28.1 (81/13) | 59.8% (16/4) | 1.75 (23/4) | 5.5 (87/10) |
The Appalachian State game continues to prop up the season numbers. Michigan’s bonus yards per play drops nearly a full point with week one excluded and their ranking drops into the triple digits. Speaking of triple digits, That’s where Michigan’s field position gap is currently ranked. –3.8 points per game just based on where each drive starts ranks Michigan at 108 out 127 schools in the FBS. State of Michigan schools are first (MSU, +11.2 ppg) and last (EMU, –13.8 ppg) nationally. On defense, Michigan is in the top 25 for both conversion rate and bonus yards per play allowed, but quite a ways away from the national leaders.
2. Individual Performances
Shane Morris, 23 plays: –12.9 pts, –27%
Devin Gardner, 10 plays: +5.8, +1%
Derrick Green, 6 plays: –1.5, –3%
Deveon Smith, 9 plays: +3.1, +8%
Devin Funchess, 12 plays: –1.7, –3%
Minnesota
D. Cobb, 35 plays: +4.4, +3%
M. Leidner, 25 plays: +11.6, +22%
M. Williams, 5 plays: +5.5, +4%
3. Game Chart
The six biggest plays that swung the game
6. –5.6% Cobb runs for 34 yards (early 1st qtr)
5. +6.0% Deveon Smith scores from 10 yards out (early 2nd qtr)
4. –6.5% Leidner scores from 10 yards out on 3rd and 1 for Minnesota’s first score (mid 2nd qtr)
3. +12.4% Ojemuida sacks Leidner to force long FG (mid 3rd qtr)
2. –12.6% Minnesota hits 48 yard field to go up 13 (mid 3d qtr)
1. –16.0% Shane Morris is intercepted and returned for a TD (mid 3rd qtr)
A new piece I’ve put together special for this fun season is the Blame Game. Adding up the win percentage changes by play type to see which types of plays impacted the game the most.
1. –26% Pass offense
2. -15% Opponent kicking
3. –7% Rush offense
All other groups +/- 2%
1 & 3 aren’t much of a surprise. Minnesota’s conversion of a long field goal while the game was still within a possession drove #2.
For the season, rush defense has been the biggest positive (+11%) while the pass offense and the punt team have been major hits.
4. Dumb Punt of the Week
Memphis, Michigan, New Mexico, Texas Tech, Miami (NTM) and Washington all punted in the final five minutes of a game they were trailing by at least 7 points. All faced 10+ yards to convert, but at some point you have to try, right? Trying for all five of these teams meant punting it away, and all five lost on the field, but couldn’t quite pull out the DPotW.
In a completely separate instance from the one noted above, the fighting Bob Davie’s at New Mexico trailed by 11 in the final 10 minutes, faced 4th and 2 at their own 43 versus Fresno State. Fresno State is not good this year, but apparently Davie didn’t want to go for the 2 yards, opting instead to punt the ball away. New Mexico did not win.
5. Outrage quantified
I know we’re contractually obligated to lead with Shane Morris/Dave Brandon but I’m a gunslinger who only plays by his own rules. Above is a chart I put together on a whim based on a tweet from @cdbarker. An attempt to quantify the two parts that Brian later clarified in today’s post. There is an outrage piece that is mostly independent of Michigan’s current record. Then there is a cumulative punishment expectation where this is a piece of the larger picture.
6. Prediction
Five games in the numbers have finally turned on Michigan, well after everyone else has. Rutgers hasn’t been that good, but they have definitely been better than Michigan.
Rutgers 20 Michigan 14