This became an interception! Seriously! (Don't worry, Gary Nova still had an awful game.)
So I just watched the 13-10 Penn State win over Rutgers from a couple weeks ago in which Gary Nova threw five interceptions and let's just get this over with as quickly as humanly possible.
Personnel. Rutgers doesn't just list a starting FB and TE—they mean it, coming out in a 2WR I-form set on just about every standard down. They trotted out this formation a few times, as well, in which they'd start from their base I-form, then motion both the FB and TE into a trips set:
Otherwise, they went I-form on standard downs and shotgun on obvious passing downs with little exception.
Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
We decided to expand the recruiting-related star from composite top-100 only to top-250, since that still encompasses relatively elite prospects while not being quite as exclusive—limiting it to just the top 100 from each class left out some highly regarded players with impressive recruiting profiles.
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Pro-style. As mentioned, I-form is their base set, and the shotgun pretty much exclusively came out in third-and-long situations. Ralph Friedgen's offense is like a time portal to 1990s NFL football.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? A mix of both gap and zone blocking concepts. Rutgers leaned heavily on zone running early, then added in more power later in this game. RB Paul James had to make something out of nothing either way for the most part; in very bad news for Rutgers, James tore his ACL the next week against Navy. He'll miss the rest of the season, and his backups aren't of his caliber.
Hurry it up or grind it out? Huddletastic.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Nova showed off some wheels in this game, escaping the pocket for a couple decent pickups and scoring RU's only touchdown of the night on an impressive 14-yard scramble:
He's mostly just going to run in a straight line until he meets resistance, but he's dangerous enough that I'll give him a 6.
Dangerman: WR Leonte Carroo essentially wins by default here with James out, the O-line looking bad, and Nova as much a danger to his own team as he is to his opponent. Carroo has 25 receptions this year, while no other RU player has more than ten, and he's averaging 19 YPC with five touchdowns. He had some issues with drops earlier in his career, and while he couldn't bring in a borderline but catchable slant in this one, he otherwise looked much-improved—he ran solid routes, provided a sizable target for Nova, and looked like he could be dangerous after the catch.
Zook Factor: Rutgers went on an impressive drive at the end of the first half, but got forced into an ugly second-and-very-long situation in Penn State territory after a holding penalty. A slip screen got them to third-and-11 but they couldn't get out of bounds, so they decided to... spike the ball with 16 seconds left to attempt a 32-yard field goal. With a screen called the play before, how could you not have a third-down play already lined up?
HenneChart: I actually expected this to look much worse considering Nova's 15/30, 194-yard, five-interception stat line:
| Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR | SCR | DSR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | -- | 16 (1) | 2 | 5x | 5xx | 1 | -- | 4 | 3 | 58% |
Two of the interceptions weren't Nova's fault. The first graces the top of this post, a flat route that Nova put on the money only to see it bounce off his receiver's helmet. The second is this one, when the receiver failed to get his head around on a short route while Nova—not for the first time in this game—came under serious heat from the Penn State front:
That isn't on Nova. This huck into two deep defenders...
...and this complete misread...
...were very much on Nova. His fifth interception was also a bad read, but not particularly worth clipping since it came on 4th-and-13 on RU's final, desperation drive.
In general, Nova was on target when he wasn't under heavy pressure or making horrible decisions; the problem is that both of those things occurred on a regular basis—he has a habit of rolling out and then trying to complete passes late over the middle, which is a huge no-no. Then there's this, which Brian suggested I mark as a BRlol:
No, that is not legal.
OVERVIEW
While Nova gets the brunt of the criticism when it comes to RU's offense because he makes the most obvious errors, his offensive line certainly doesn't do him any favors. You'll note the four throws marked "pressure" in the Hennechart; there were two main culprits on the O-line for that figure—RT Taj Alexander, who simply couldn't handle Deion Barnes rushing off the edge, and LG Kaleb Johnson, who repeatedly got destroyed by Anthony Zettel.
Here, Johnson is beaten immediately off the snap and has to take a holding call even though Nova gets the ball out very quickly:
Here he gets embarrassed by Zettel on a spin move that flushes Nova out of the pocket, leading to a fumble that Nova was fortunate to recover. Zettel would later utilize that same spin to record a sack. Johnson didn't fare a whole lot better in the run game—he has to execute a tough block on this play, but he's either got to get a cut block on Zettel or at least slightly impede his progress:
Paul James was only able to eke out 51 yards on 14 carries in this game, and he made that look like quite the feat, often dodging free hitters in the backfield to turn a sure loss into a few yards.
The primary backup RB and expected starter for Saturday, Desmon Peoples, is a quick little guy but not close to James' equal in terms of vision, power, or all-around ability—he actually had a bad habit of slamming into the back of his linemen on inside zones instead of patiently waiting for a hole to open, which doesn't go so well when one weighs 175 pounds. The listed co-starter at RB, Justin Goodwin, didn't play in this game.
The clear #2 receiving threat after Carroo is tight end Tyler Kroft, who's been very underutilized this year, but makes the most of his opportunities—he's a huge target who moves quite well for being 6'6", 240, and he'll haul in just about anything in his considerable catching radius. The other wide receiver, Janarion Grant, let Nova's first interception bounce off his face and otherwise had little impact—he's fast and shifty but looked a little off on a couple routes and didn't play the ball well in the air.
Especially with James out, this game is setting up to be one in which the team that is least incompetent on offense will emerge the victor, and there will be plenty of incompetence to go around.