[Ed-Seth: You all know Jamie Mac, he of Just Cover Blog and the MGoPodcast, and expert on sports betting. I was at his tailgate last week for the Miami (NTM) game, and between Draft Kings’ offer to to sponsor it and Jamie’s somewhat impaired state at the moment, I was able to convince this legend to come out of writing retirement.
So here’s how it’s gonna work (for now): we’ll have a weekly spot where we identify a Draft Kings fantasy game (could be NFL, CFB, CBB, etc.) to commune in, followed by Jamie’s discussions on odds of relevance to you.]
THIS WEEK’S GAME: CFB $10K REDSHIRT [$1,000 TO 1ST]
I like Jake Butt [and HSR’s groovy image]
Details:
- $10,000 prize pool.
- $2 entry fee. Entry is free with your first deposit.
- $1,000 1st Place prize.
- Starts on Saturday, September, 20 at noon EDT
- Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 9 spots.
- Roster Format: 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
- First time depositors at DraftKings receive a 100% bonus up to $600
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THIS WEEK’S CHALK
Everyone has eliminated the Big Ten from playoff contention. I am not here to argue against that, although I am in the firm camp of letting the rest of this month and October play out before putting any serious thought into what the true pecking order should be. But keep hope alive Big Ten fans. You can still bet on some of your teams qualifying for the first ever college football final four. Here are the current odds on Big Ten teams making that postseason field.
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| Odds of Michigan in the CoFoPuff this year are running about even with the likelihood that the world will apologize. [Upchurch] |
Ohio State: Yes, +400; No, -600
Michigan State: Yes, +500; No, -800
Wisconsin: Yes, +600; No, -1000
They actually have Michigan listed on this board, but there aren't any odds. Talk about a tease. What does it matter anyway. Michigan isn't making any Final Four this season. Well, at least not in football.....
GAMES OF THE YEAR UPDATED LINES
Everyone who knows me, knows I love to track the lines of the Games Of The Year that are released way back in something called June by various Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks. Let's take a minute to compare the lines for the remaining Big 10 games that were on that board. We've got three data points: opening lines from June, lines on the day the season started and lines as they stand today. It's time for a chart, with some quick thoughts afterwards.
[After the jump, updated lines and Jamie’s tips on who to draft around the league]
| GAME | LINE, 6/13 | LINE, 8/28 | LINE, 9/17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| MINNY AT UM | UM –11.5 | UM -12 | NOT LISTED |
| CINCY AT OSU | OSU -21 | OSU -21 | NOT LISTED |
| WISCO AT NW | WISCO -6 | WISCO -7 | NOT LISTED |
| NEBRASKA AT MSU | MSU -9 | MSU -8 | MSU –10.5 |
| PSU AT UM | UM –7.5 | UM -7 | UM –5.5 |
| NEBRASKA AT NW | NEBRASKA -1 | NEBRASKA –2.5 | NOT LISTED |
| UM AT MSU | MSU -7 | MSU –7.5 | MSU –12.5 |
| OSU AT PSU | OSU -11 | OSU -9 | OSU –7.7 |
| UM AT NW | UM -3 | UM -3 | NOT LISTED |
| OSU AT MSU | OSU –1.5 | MSU –4.5 | MSU –1.5 |
| IOWA AT MINNY | IOWA -1 | PICK ‘EM | NOT LISTED |
| NEBRASKA AT WISCO | WISCO –9.5 | WISCO -7 | WISCO -11 |
| NW AT ND | ND -6 | ND -8 | NOT LISTED |
| WISCO AT IOWA | WISCO –4.5 | WISCO -6 | WISCO -4 |
| NEBRASKA AT IOWA | IOWA -3 | IOWA -1 | IOWA -3 |
| ILLINOIS AT NW | NW –11.5 | NW -9 | NOT LISTED |
| UM AT OSU | OSU -10 | OSU -8 | OSU -13 |
| MINNY AT WISCO | WISCO -13 | WISCO -13 | NOT LISTED |
| MSU AT PSU | MSU -7 | MSU -7 | MSU –7. |
Those Michigan lines against MSU and OSU make me sad. Let's not talk about them.
Ohio State at Michigan State is the league's marquee conference game of the year. It's also the only league game where we've the role of chalk has change hands between the summer lines release and today. I've been tracking that line the whole time. It actually surged up to MSU -4.5 in the immediate days after the Braxton Miller injury announcement in the middle of last month. For the last two weeks, the line has been coming down and it's back to the MSU -1.5 mark that it was on the first day of the season.
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| Unfortunately they’re not offering odds on whether even the good parts of Northwestern will break, because most of them already have. |
Five of those lines that are not being offered anymore involve Northwestern. Hard to fault oddsmakers for not wanting to get involved in any future lines for the Cats after their disastrous 0-2 start. You can fault us for what looks now like some major missed opportunities for the summer. Those summer lines look way too small right now, don’t they? Figure when game week rolls around, the Cats will be double digit underdogs in a lot of those games.
Don't ask me why some of those Iowa lines are moving towards the Hawkeyes. I get that those Nebraska and Wisconsin games are in Iowa City, but shouldn't people be flocking away from Iowa in those showdowns at this point? Then again, it goes to show that it does not matter how much you're struggling now, you're always going to be good enough to be a Big Ten West dark horse. However, I'd take both the Badgers and the Huskers on those lines against Iowa.
Speaking of the Huskers and Badgers, that's looking like the game to decide the Big 1o West. I'll take the Under on total completions between Tanner McEvoy and Tommy Armstrong Jr. I'll also gladly gobble all those 11 points. Nebraska can do all their Nebraska things with Armstrong at the helm. Is he really that much of a drop-off from Taylor Martinez? Meanwhile, I am not sold on McEvoy's ability to keep defenses honest. Scott Tolzien is not walking through that door. Wisconsin has always needed an efficient QB to balance their amazing running game. I does not look like they have that right now.
AROUND THE BIG TEN, WEEK 4
UTAH AT MICHIGAN, 3:30, ABC. LINE, UM -5
For years, the Utah Utes were one of the best underdog programs in the country. Sure, they still own a 33-18 ATS mark when catching points, but the bloom has come off this rose since joining the Pac-12. In their three years with the conference, the Utes are just 6-9 ATS as underdogs in league play. The meatier Pac-12 slate during the fall, combined with unlucky injury situations at the QB position have conspired against Utah in their new digs. They haven't even made a bowl game the last two seasons. They're still feisty as underdogs in non-conference games. They've logged an 18-6 ATS mark in that role and have defeated BYU three years running as an underdog and Pitt in 2011. They're still a valid investment before the rigors of Pac-12 expose them. They come into this game fresh off a bye and a pair of easy wins over an FCS and Mountain West team. But they're facing a team that does it's best work--frankly, it's only work--on their home turf. Michigan is 15-8 ATS under Brady Hoke at home and average just a smidge under 40 points a game in those contests. In 11 of their last 20 home games, the Wolverines have come within a score to topping the Vegas Over/Under mark all by themselves. I said a week ago that Michigan will get healthy on this 3-game home stand, winning all three, nabbing two covers and scoring a boatload of points. They need a cover here to make good on that prediction. Since opening as -7 at most offshore books Sunday afternoon, it's been bet down to 5.5 or 5 at most shops by this morning.
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| Rob Bolden, everybody! PennLive |
EASTERN MICHIGAN AT MICHIGAN STATE, NOON, BTN
Michigan State is favored by 45.5 points over #RealRival Eastern Michigan. It is the largest the Spartans have even been chalk. The Eagles are starting Robert Bolden at QB. This should not be legal. Meanwhile, in local press conferences, MSU Coach Mark Dantonio is being pestered about if he'll run up the score to impress the playoff committee. I'd rather watch Tom Izzo pressers. Speaking of Izzo, I'd really like to get some legit injury news out of Ann Arbor. Can we bring Tom in to handle those parts of Brady Hoke's press conferences?
INDIANA AT MISSOURI, 3:00, SEC NETWORK. LINE, MIZZ -14
Due you think Missouri QB Matty Mauk is licking his chops waiting to face an Indiana defense that allowed 113 plays, including 73 passing plays, against Bowling Green? Hey, there's a reason he's the 4rth most expensive QB at Draft Kings for the afternoon sessions of their daily fantasy football games. At $8,300 bucks he's 1K cheaper than Taysom Hill, Kenny Hill and Rakeem Cato. Kenny Hill and Cato are probably worth it as they too ought to eviscerate lousy defenses, just like Mauk will. But Taysom Hill faces a really stout Virginia defense, so don't be surprised if Mauk out points him this weekend.
On the other side, dare I say don't buy Tevin Coleman? He's had a touchdown in 11 straight games and had a stretch last week in the second half when he ran for 120 yards on seven carries, scoring three touchdowns. He's the second most pricey tailback on the board behind Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon. But going against a fast, SEC defense might be enough to corral him into what will end up his worst game of the season. A year ago at home against the Tigers, Coleman did score a touchdown, but was held to just 79 total yards from scrimmage.
IOWA AT PITT, NOON, ESPN U. LINE, PIT T -7
Iowa suffered a miserable loss to Iowa State last weekend, but now is not the time to abandon ship on the Hawkeyes. No, really. I mean it. The loss was the 12th time since 2006 that Iowa has lost outright as a double digit favorite. However, they're 8-3-1 ATS the week after such a result. They're also 14-6 ATS coming off a loss in the month of September, including 6-1 in the road dog role. And they know how to put whatever Iowa State result happens behind them, pulling in an 11-3 ATS mark in the week following the annual Cy-Hawk game, 7-0 when coming off a loss in that rivalry. Hold your nose and take the points.
BOWLING GREEN AT WISCONSIN, ESPN2, NOON. LINE, WISCO -27
Wisconsin returns after a bye week to face Bowling Green. The Falcons are fresh off a last second upset win over Indiana. The Falcons ran a play every 16 seconds in their game against the Hoosiers. Somewhere Brady Hoke just fainted. I don't think they can get away with that against a legit defense like Wisconsin's. All that will do is put the ball back into the Badgers big play rushing attack more often. BG gave up 190 yards and three scores to Hoosiers' tailback Tevin Coleman. Did you know the Badgers have had a pair of 100-yard rushers in 10 of their last 25 games? They're 9-1 SUATS in this games, scoring an average of 45.2 points per game in those contests and racking up those wins by an average of 37.4 points per game. This just sounds like a game that the Badgers get both Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement going. Look for the Badgers to compete with MSU for biggest Big Ten blowout of the day.
MIAMI AT NEBRASKA, 8:00, ESPN2. LINE, NEBRASKA -7
For the second straight week, Nebraska is involved in a game where the point spread represents a dramatic shift from the summer line. A week ago, Nebraska took the field at Fresno State as 10-point chalk, a jump from the -4.5 line set by oddsmakers on the Games Of The Year Board. It didn't matter as Nebraska showcased it's big play attack and romped 55-19. This week, bettors are looking at a Nebraska -7 heading into their primetime showdown at home against Miami, Florida. Back in the summer, this line was just Nebraska -3. Bettors love offense and the Huskers are averaging 47 points per game on the the young season, hanging double nickels on two of their three foes.
How about Ameer Abdullah? He's had more than 100 yards in 13 of Nebraska's last 16 games. Last week's effort was his 19th career game over the century mark, putting him third all-time on that list in Nebraska football history. One more 100-yard game, and he ties Ahman Green for second place. He's still seven behind the leader Mike Rozier. But he should tie Green this week, facing a Hurricane defense that's allowed 104.4 rush yards per game to their foe's top tailback in their last 11 games against FBS opponents. If you're playing the evening session at Draft Kings, buy Abdullah. Prices are not out yet and he probably will be one of the more expensive buys on the board. But pair him with Boise's Jay Ajayi, whose playing on his home Blue Turf against UL-Monroe. In his last 7 home games, Ajayi has averaged 160.5 yards from scrimmage and has scored 18 touchdowns. An Abdullah/Ajayi backfield will eat up some of your budget, but I think it's a backfield that will keep you in the run for the money the whole night.