Red zone threat: check.
Utah is coming off a bye week, so they've only played two games this season: a 56-14 pasting of Idaho State and a 59-27 pasting of Fresno State. I chose to break down the latter pasting, which wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate—I stopped charting when Utah went up 38-7 while the video of that drive cut out due to a stadium power outage; from that point on, the backups took over.
Personnel. Seth's diagram says spread-to-pass because I told him the wrong thing based on the box score showing Utah with six touchdown passes against Fresno. They are, in fact, a spread-to-run outfit with a couple very dangerous receivers. As per usual, click the picture to embiggen.
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Spread-to-run. While Utah's done most of their scoring and yardage damage through the air this season, they use their running attack to set up the pass, and while this is a little skewed by the pair of blowouts they've run the ball 100 times compared to just 59 pass attempts this season.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Basketball on grass. While Utah mixes in some gap blocking, including a couple tricky variations on the read option that I'll highlight later, they're mostly focused on running zone read, inside zone, and a little outside zone out of the gun or pistol.
Hurry it up or grind it out? Very much hurry it up. Utah routinely got snaps off with 20+ seconds remaining on the play clock against Fresno State, and the only huddles occurred during timeouts. They're close to Indiana fast.
Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): With sacks removed, Travis Wilson gained 48 yards on nine carries against Fresno State, and last season he averaged nearly five YPC (without sacks removed) with five rush TDs. While he's not outrageously fast or shifty, he makes good reads in the option game, and his size (6'7", 233) allows him to cover ground quickly and fall forward for decent yards after contact. I'll give him a solid 6 here.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Dangerman: Wide receiver Dres Anderson is one of the best big-play threats in the country; he's coming off a junior season in which he tied for the lead nationally with seven receptions of 50+ yards and led the Pac-12 with 18.9 yards per catch. He torched Fresno State for a pair of scores, including this one:
Yes, the Bulldogs had a hiccup in coverage, but that's all it takes against Anderson—one false step and he'll take the top right off the defense. He could've had two more touchdowns in this one; the first play from scrimmage saw him beat man coverage clean over the top, but a slight underthrow allowed the defender to catch up after a big gain, and a second underthrow in the same situation later in the game turned a would-be score into an incompletion.
Zook Factor: Totally absent. Utah was aggressive, going for multiple fourth-and-shorts—they make these more difficult to defend by cranking up the tempo, as well. They looked very well-coached.
HenneChart: Wilson finished 11-for-20 for 181 yards and five touchdowns. There is a massive caveat here: Fresno State is currently dead last in pass efficiency defense, allowing opposing QBs to post a ridiculous 201.1 rating with 14 touchdowns to zero picks. This passes the eye test of their defense, which seemed to put a lot of guys in man coverage who weren't very good at man coverage. Anyway, here's the chart:
| Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR | SCR | DSR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno State | 0 | 9 | 1 | 4 (1) | 1 | 3 | -- | 2 | -- | 56% |
Wait, this actually worked. Wilson hit the wide-open guys, had a few iffy throws to the sideline, and had a couple instances when he took too much time in the pocket or dropped too far back for the pocket to be relevant. He's not a pinpoint passer, but the defense in this case didn't make that a factor.
OVERVIEW
Formation chart:
| Formations | Run | Pass | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gun | 22 | 16 | 4 |
| I-Form | -- | -- | -- |
| Ace | -- | -- | -- |
| Pistol | 7 | -- | -- |
A spread, indeed. This chart makes it appear that Utah tips their hand in a major way when they line up in the pistol, but that's not the case; they actually line up with the RB directly behind the QB on nearly ever snap, then motion him next to the QB on one side or the other. This is their base set when all is said and done:
As for the play distribution, Utah really looked to get the run going on early downs:
| Down | Run | Pass | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 15 | 5 | 2 |
| 2nd | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| 3rd | 3 | 7 | -- |
The consistency of the running game opens everything up for the rest of the offense. Wilson is a solid threat to keep on zone reads, and he's paired with a solid one-two running back rotation in JuCo transfer Devontae Booker and last year's starter, Bubba Poole. While Booker got the start and has better numbers this year, I liked Poole more in limited viewing—he turned a dead-in-the-water outside zone into a ten-yard gain with a couple nice jukes and finished his runs well.
The offensive line looks like a mixed bag. The left side, anchored by former top-250 recruit Jeremiah Poutasi at left tackle, held up very well in pass protection and got nice push in the running game. The right side had an up-and-down day blocking the run—the inside stuff mostly went okay, but runs to the outside often got blown up—and they gave up pressure against the passer on a consistent basis, both by getting beat clean and, in at least one instance, blowing their assignments on a stunt.
Anderson provides a scary big-play threat on the outside, and he's got a nice complement on the other side in Kenneth Scott, who leads the team with ten receptions this year. Scott has a sturdy frame, runs good routes, is tough to bring down in the open field, and can go up and get the football—he's making the touchdown catch in the screencap that graces the top of this post. If Michigan plans to play man coverage on these guys, the cornerbacks will really be tested, with a burner on one side and a very solid possession receiver on the other.
Utah's starting slot receiver, Kaelin Clay, has just two catches this year and wasn't a target during the portion of the game I watched; he is, however, a very dangerous return man, having scored via both punt and kickoff return in the season opener. He got dinged up (ankle) in the Fresno game on a return, but he's listed atop the depth chart this week and I haven't seen any news that he'll be out. Given his returning acumen, I'm guessing Clay is a threat to take a screen pass and turn it into a chunk play; Utah also ran a couple of end-arounds/reverses, and he seems like a good candidate to get one of those.
Westlee Tonga is listed as a tight end but lines up almost exclusively at H-back; he's the clear #3 receiver on this team, mostly as a short outlet for Wilson. He scored in this one on a fourth-and-one play in Fresno territory when the defense abandoned the seam and Tonga took a quick pass and ran through three defenders; he showed some nice wheels and power but I don't think Michigan will tackle that poorly.
Overall, this offense looks pretty dangerous, albeit with a couple potential flaws—namely, Wilson's accuracy (he threw 16 INTs last year and completed just 56% of his passes) and the right side of the line. Keeping a lid on Anderson looks like it'll be the biggest key in this game; he's got game-changing speed.
PLAY BREAKDOWN
I mentioned that Utah mostly runs zone blocking concepts. Here's their wrinkle to the inverted veer, which they'll block like they're running power instead of zone. They're running this out of their base set (a third WR is off the screen to the bottom):
On the snap, the left guard pulls to the right side while the rest of the line blocks down. The H-back arcs out towards the top of the screen, occupying the strongside linebacker:
The Utah OL has already crushed Fresno's DL as Wilson decides to keep—it's tough to see from the screencap, but he does a great job of waiting on the read until the MIKE (filling the gap that the pulling guard is about to enter) takes a step towards the outside:
As a bonus for Utah, the safety to the top of the screen also bugs out for the running back, opening up a big crease for Wilson:
The safety is the guy with his hand on the ground. Thanks to Fresno's focus on the RB and a great block by the H-back, the pulling guard actually ends up not having to block anybody while Wilson scampers for a first down.
Video: