Preview 2014: Heuristics And Stupid Prediction

Previously: Podcast 6.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. Five Questions and Five Answers, Offense. 5Q5A, Defense.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

Michigan did very well in this category considering that sacks allowed number. Pressure equals turnovers, and Michigan suffered all of the pressure last year. Their INT rate dropped significantly despite that, though a big part of that was five picks on 22 attempts by Russell Bellomy and Vincent Smith that did not repeat.

Michigan's interceptions were largely built on the craft and ability of their corners, who return and are being pushed hard from behind. Pass rush should improve with a season of a healthy Jake Ryan and both defensive ends coming back; Michigan gets its QB back for his senior year; the line… welp. The line.

If Michigan can pass protect reasonably well they should expect to be on the positive side of this ledger, perhaps significantly. If they can't…

Position Switch Starters

Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball. Michigan flipping Prescott Burgess from SLB to WLB or PSU moving Dan Connor inside don't register here: we're talking major moves that indicate a serious lack somewhere.

The dossier:

Things that already happened like Funchess to WR, Brennen Beyer to DE, Braden to tackle, Magnuson to guard. Fret level: these already happened.

Various small moves associated with the change to an over defense. Fret level: minor. Michigan played a lot of over fronts last year and Brennen Beyer will be more comfortable in that front; the minor differences between WLB in an under and SAM in an over shouldn't be a problem for James Ross.

SAM Jake Ryan moves to MLB because over front. Fret level: moderate. It is a big change for a guy who was a terrific player at a spot Michigan no longer really has, and I worry it'll blunt his effectiveness.

SDE Keith Heitzman moves to TE because need blocking. Fret level: moderate. It makes sense because Michigan needs blocking desperately at TE and Heitzman was surplus to requirements at DE. I am just fretting because this reminds me about the TE blocking.

MLB Desmond Morgan to both ILBspots because Joe Bolden. Fret level: zero.

And that's it. Very stable. Shortest this section has been in a long, long time.

An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt

Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios

The offensive line is a pile of doom that takes the offense down with it as Michigan experiences a near-replay of last year: Gardner does stuff to win games by himself sometimes, there is a star receiver, real defenses turn Michigan's rushing offense off. The defense is still better than last year, deeper and less prone to collapse against… uh, the best rushing offense in the country. Michigan gets swept in their three road rivalry games, drops the Penn State game at home, and loses another game somewhere on the schedule to finish 7-5.

Best Case

The offensive line holds up okay, giving Michigan a functional rushing game that develops as the season goes along. One of the backs stepping up helps this a lot; the receiving corps is great; Gardner still gets put in too many long-yardage scenarios for the offense to be great.

The defense is lights out. Michigan beats up a depleted Notre Dame team in game two, sweeps the home schedule, beats a freshman JT Barrett in Columbus, and still loses to MSU to finish 11-1.

Final Verdict

This will be a significant step forward for both units. That will not get the offense to anything better than tolerable except for two games in which Gardner and Funchess go nuts. The defense should be very good… at worst. This is put up or shut up time for those guys.

With special teams looking fine to good, the main issue is the schedule. It's tough to lose five games with it and tough to win ten. It is a lot easier now that Braxton Miller doesn't lurk at the end of the year, Northwestern is losing critical players weekly, and there is a possibility that Notre Dame will be down a number of players from an already wonky-looking defense, but it feels like there are a couple games in there that the offense will clunk away.

I've got 9-3. Before the Miller injury I would have said 8-4 was more likely than 10-2, but now… I think 9-3.