Once again, Connor Cook and I disagree on the Spartans outlook entering the season
This is the thirdyear running I’ve crunched the numbers and simulated the schedule to see which teams I would buy and which I would sell. All predictions are based purely on numerical calculations I have run the last 5 offseasons to predict the following season and compared against Vegas’s win total predictions. The main inputs are players/ contribution returning, last season’s performance, recruiting rankings of players on the roster weighted by experience along with coach and program history.
The Big Ten
There are only two teams in the Big Ten I have a major disagreement with Vegas on. 11 of 14 teams I’m projecting within 1 win of the Vegas total and Penn State is only a slightly larger gap. I may not be sold on Tim Beckman, but my numbers are high on his Illinois team this year. 762 out of 1,000 scenarios run have the Illini exceeding their projected 4.5 wins this year, with over half putting Illinois in line for a bowl bid.
Just like two years ago, one of my biggest sells of the season are the Spartans with only 5.5% of simulations seeing the Spartans exceed their 9.5 win projection. Michigan State’s three-year defensive run is downright amazing, especially considering how elite defenses are typically so reliant on highly touted talent being present. The Spartans have never had to replace as much as they do this year and although the talent pool has been rising, it is still another couple years away from four stars dominating the 2-deep.
[After the jump: mathy things.]
Some people think that the defense can regress because Connor Cook and the offense emerged in the last part of last season. Yes, the offense did improve, but mostly because the first four games couldn’t have been much worse. One quick check I do is to see how many points a team scored/gave up, versus what is expected based on each drive’s starting field position. This measure is opponent agnostic, just measures for each whether the points you scored verse allowed were more due to starting field position or value generated by the respective offense.
Here is MSU’s game by game look at the 2013 season:
The offense contributed more than the defense against Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio State and less in every other game. Over the final six games of the season, the defense was +51 and offense was +7. The offense will likely be better this season, but the offense has a long hill to climb. I have no reason to think Cook can’t be a solid quarterback, but the idea that he is line to be the best quarterback in the Big Ten is purely a function of the defense wearing the same jersey as he does.
Ultimately, my prediction stems from a belief that its going to be very hard for the defense to be as elite as it was last year (I had them ranked #1 in the country) and I don’t see the offense getting enough better to cover the loss on defense.
Around the Country
Mack Brown after realizing he let me down again, or after realizing who he put in charge of his defense.
ACC
A big ball of mediocre. Even more pronounced than the Big Ten, I have everyone but BC (over 4.5 wins) within 1.2 games of the Vegas win total. On top of that, 9/14 teams are predicted between 3-5 and 5-3 in conference.
Big 12
While my preseason prediction model has had some really nice sleeper calls, no team has foiled it more often than the Texas Longhorns. For the last two years it was convinced the Longhorns were coming back to national elite status but for it never to materialize. Mack Brown is gone because of it, and the model is just as high on Charlie Strong’s Longhorns. The model is predicting about 9 wins and a virtual tie with Oklahoma, right behind predicted frontrunner Baylor.
Pac-12
There is good consensus at the top between Vegas and the model, but at the bottom, the numbers like Cal a lot more and Colorado a lot less than the projected win totals. The top is packed tightly but my projected order is: Oregon, Stanford, USC, Washington and UCLA
SEC
After picking Tennessee to breakout in previous years, the model has given up on the Volunteers this season, along with Les Miles’ LSU squad. Two teams projected to overachieve, are league favorite Auburn, which despite a brutal schedule, the model pegs at 10.5 wins, a full 1.5 wins above Vegas along with the rebuilding Kentucky Wildcats.
National Title
Back in the spring I looked at the BCS era national champs to look for common threads. Each of the last ten ranked in the top in roster talent (recruiting rankings of the roster paired with seniority) with all but 2 teams landing in the top 4 on either offense or defense. Based only on the this secret sauce metric, your national title short list of roster talent is Top 4 O/D noted in ():
1. Alabama (O/D)
2. Texas (O/D)
3. Auburn (D)
4. Ohio St (O)
5. USC (O)
6. Florida
7. Florida St (D)
8. Georgia
9. Clemson
10. Michigan
If you’re looking for some longshots, there are 4 full-fledged longshots on that list, including Michigan. Oregon, Oklahoma and UCLA are betting favorites not on the list, rank 16, 12 and 19 respectively in roster talent.
A Michigan contention for a national title is definitely a long shot, but nearly 20% of my simulations had Michigan with at least 10 wins, with the average outcome right around 8.