The highlight of the pre-season, right here:
At the link LSA Superstarbroke down every rep from the above, though the times seem off. I don't know why De'Veon Smith wasn't in them at all. There's one where Ross is going against Samuelson with Ty Isaac the RB, and…
REP 15 @ 1:43
O: D. Samuelson (OL)
D: J. Ross III (LB)
T: T. Isaac (RB)Ross pops into Samuelson, who is slow to react. Ross is in control but HOLY SHIT Isaac squares and totally buries Ross with a shoulder shiver. Isaac is running with extreme power here - Ross didn't have a chance.
That happens at 1:16 actually. Takeaways from a single drill that the offense is supposed to win: Samuelson is still a ways away from figuring (that's totally expected), Ross is what he is (smart, great at anticipating, still smallish), and whoa Ty Isaac; I'm not 100% sure the outcome would have been different if you replaced Ross with Pipkins there.
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| Guessing we'll be doing a lot of RB rating this season as Michigan tries to settle on which of the four backs is more effective. [Fuller] |
FYI yes it's Isaac; Smith wears #4 and for some reason that could be "don't injure the starter" he doesn't appear in the drill. By the way his nickname is "Honey Badger" now.
Speaking of rating rushers. Hero of the diaries MCalibur graced us with 2,800 words to create a metric for rating rushers—RBs/QBs/FBs/etc.—by mixing the touchdown rate and fumble rate with adjusted yards per attempt. I was particularly impressed by how he elegantly challenged the longstanding arbitrary assumption that 20 yards was a "big" play by showing the standard deviation on runs is 7.5 and the average run is about 4 yards, so a "big" play can be defined as one that goes beyond the standard deviation, i.e. 12 yards or more should be the standard for a breakaway run.
The result is something like a passer rating for RBs, and a chart with the contributing factors broken out. Unfortunately scheme and opponent and skill around the player etc. have a major influence: Toussaint's 68% went-forward rate is probably 15% his fault. Ameer Abdullah's fumble rate and low TD rate appeared to damage him, but how much of that is on Nebraska being so bend-don't-break and then trying to Abdullah their way across the 50 yard line before letting Tommy pass?
So it's not ready to enter the pantheon of stats yet, but it's still a remarkable example of what people will accomplish when you give them free stats to work with.
Speaking of tons of fascinating and useful data, for free… MCalibur mentioned cfbstats as his resource but I'm guessing he downloaded his data awhile ago, since going there now just sends you to data hoarding company Marty now works for.
The good news is last time I mentioned that in this space a reader offered to help us scrub NCAA data and reproduce that, and Mathlete jumped on the project, and there's now a very long email chain that I'm CC'ed on but has gotten way beyond my comprehension that should sometime in the coming months result in a comprehensive stats page on this site, with all of our base data available to download for free. Finally there will be a place you can go on the internet to get free, sane football stats (other than FO) that treat sacks as passing plays and tempo as something that exists. It also converts "ATH"s to positions, and will classify an Arizona "SB" as a running back and a Northwestern "SB" as a tight end. That place will be here. #ilovemyreaders!
There's a thread on the board about other changes that are coming to the site this season, what you'd like to see.
Etc. Ace is tracking the blowout tour of Italy. Lanyard Program is cutting back on the programs. Get your off-topic topics out of your system by tomorrow. Remember the Hindenberg and the other thing like it wallpaper. A more elegant wallpaper.
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Best of the Board
YOUR BEST EXCUSES
Incomplete list of reasons why people have missed the game (or even The Game):
- Delivering their first kid
- Weddings (co-sign Ramzy from 11W's crusade against fall weddings, especially Labor Day weekend. I missed UConn for one, and to sneak into the bar to ruin my night for the Bama game)
- Religious holidays (I never should have gone to Akron on Rosh Hashanah. I realize that now.)
- Serving in Afghanistan during The Horror (Could you please stop firing at me for like, one day, Taliban? I'm kind of sensitive right now.)
- Driving back from Michigania. There's a reason it's a ghost town on the last day of the last weekend, man.
- Bar Mitzvah in Mexico City.
- Couples shower (your own). Oy.
- Supernatural convention. Who? Who do you think?
To the guy who missed a Pearl Jam concert to see Michigan-Syracuse in '98, I'm sure that felt horrible at the time but let's be honest: if somebody asked you now if you'd rather see Eddie Vedder or Tom Brady vs. Donovan McNabb in college, which would you choose?
Y U NO TALK JAMES ROSS?
1. We did talk about him a lot when we talked about the move to the over.
2. We see him a lot less because Michigan is playing mostly spread teams and Peppers is the nickel, which replaces the SAM.
3. He apparently won his position battle with RJS except Jenkins-Stone will handle more run-heavy outfits.
ETC. Way too specific predictions are fun. The gypsy trying to ruin my Draftageddon team forgot MSU doesn't sit starters for DUIs. There was a guy on NDNation who was falsely accused of cheating by his ND professor, then tried to convince the prof he hadn't cheated by repeatedly pointing out that the professor wasn't in the Big Ten anymore and be offended that he was called "Joe" instead of "Joseph," and therefore he doubts the school will deal fairly with some players I'm sure the school wants just as badly as they wanted this guy. All HTTV just-books should have arrived unless you just gave me your address or haven't (and your inbox is full of requests for that) or you're international. Signed books and t-shirts have shipped so expect early next week, or middle next week for non-Midwest.
Your Moment of Zen: