Draftageddon 2014: Left Behind - Offense

This is an actual movie. See? There are worse things than Draftageddon

Draftageddon is complete, to the relief of many of you and the heartbreak of… well, some of you. Maybe. But there are still some non-terrible football players to be discussed, so to be properly prepared for the season, let’s take a look at some of the players who were not selected, but could have been if we’d Heiko’d just a little deeper. We’ll also review who WAS taken at various positions and take a quick gander at the position group as a whole. If you want to go back and read our snark, on any of the players, the hyperlinks on players' names will take you to the relevant articles.

Quarterback

Who was taken:

Who’s left:

Joel Stave, Wisconsin– Threw for 7.4 YPA with 22 TDs, 13 INTs. He’s a game manager, though not a particularly inspiring one. Stave didn’t exceed 9 YPA in any game against a power conference team, despite a massively effective running game behind him. Wisconsin’s passing game stagnated last half of the season, and as a result, Stave is theoretically battling w/ Tanner McEvoy for the starting job. Stave will almost certainly win the job, but he’s returning to a gutted receiving corp: Wisconsin loses their four leading receivers, including Jared Abbrederis & Jacob Pederson. Their leading returning receiver had 127 yards. Way more red flags than green ones.

Jake Rudock, Iowa– Threw for 6.9 YPA with 18 TDs and 13 INTs. These are not inspiring numbers, especially for a quarterback with a solid running game behind him. Another game manager type, Rudock didn’t throw for more than 256 passing yards in any game, and didn’t crack 9 YPA against any non-Purdue opponent. Meh.

Trevor Siemian, Northwestern– Was a pretty stoppable Throw God last year, throwing for 7.2 YPA with 11 TDs and 9 INTs. In B1G play he went for 4 TDs and 0 INTs against Illinois… and 3 TDs and 7 INTs against the rest of the conference. He seemed to regress over the course of the year (along with Northwestern’s entire offense), and whether it is the result of missing Venric Mark (SIT DOWN, SETH) or just Northwestern not being that good, it’s hard to expect great things this year.

OVERALL – Braxton, then a few guys, then wheeeeeeeeeee. Despite the gap in draft rounds between the second and third quarterbacks taken, there is a solid tier just below Miller that includes Devin Gardner, Christian Hackenberg, and Connor Cook (and potentially Nate Sudfeld or CJ Brown, but probably not). Beyond that, you’re looking at uninspiring game manager-types, young guys prone to moments of WTF, and Gary Nova. Michigan is very much in the “haves” half of the draw in this respect, so be pleased.

[After THE JUMP: other positions, as you probably guessed.]

Running Back

Who was taken:

Who’s left:

Ezekiel Elliot, Ohio State– The heir apparent to Carlos “El Guapo” Hyde. I already expressed my surprise that no one grabbed him, though it’s probably more of a function of the depth of the Big Ten running back position than a statement about Elliot. He ran for 8.7 YPC and 2 TDs on 30 carries, but half of them were against Florida A&M. And while he lacks some of Hyde’s elephant-like qualities, he will almost certainly have a very productive year by way of having two functional legs and lining up as OSU’s primary running back. He did have a minor wrist surgery already this fall, though, so we'll see.

Mark Weisman, Iowa–Ran for 4.3 YPC and 8 TDs, but his production was down in ’13 (he ran for 5.1 YPC in ’12). His production also fell from early ’13 to late ’13. The only 2^nd half opponent against whom he was remotely productive was… dammit all… Michigan. Given Weisman’s ‘perturbed moose’ running style, there’s reason to be concerned that his 385 high-violence carries over the last two years have worn much of the tread off of the tires.

David Cobb, Minnesota– A poor man’s Chris Perry. Cobb is a solid all-around running back with a little bit of wiggle, but he’s mostly a pick-your-way-through-the-hole-and-go type. Cobb has good (not great) speed, and catches the ball well out of the backfield. Ran for over 1200 yards at 5.1 YPC, and had five 100+ yard games in B1G. He was a bell cow last year after Donnell Kirkwood went down with a bad ankle, notching 17+ carries in each of Minnesota’s last games. However, he only scored 3 TDs against real teams (he scored twice each against Western Illinois and San Jose State). Kirkwood is back healthy, so odds are he’ll split carries more this year. He’s a good back to have on your real-life team, notsomuch on your quasi-fantasy team.

Paul James, Rutgers – Averaged 5.65 yards per carry and scored 9 TDs in 10 games (he missed a few games with a sprained ankle). He’s a patient back who can find a hole when it develops. The problem is that he shredded Fresno State, Norfolk State, and Eastern Michigan in the first three weeks of the year, and didn’t do a great deal against anyone after that. Whether it was lingering injury stuff, his terrible line catching up to him, or real opponents not being terrible is unclear.

OVERALL: It’s a deep year for running backs in the Big Ten. Everyone but Ace grabbed two, and he has Dontre Wilson so he’s got like one and a half. There are two guys above the rest of the pack in Ameer Abdullah and Melvin Gordon, but there are a number of other quality backs in Traditional (Jeremy Langford, Corey Clement, David Cobb), Ninja (Venric Mark, Josh Ferguson) and Twist (Tevin Coleman) flavors. It isn’t a ‘position of concern’ to any of the major conference contenders, other than possibly Penn State (with Zach Zwinak) and Michigan (with… you know the story).

Wide Receiver

Who was taken:

Who’s left?

Geno Lewis, Penn State– Lewis is the leading returning wide receiver for Penn State, after he grabbed… uh… 18 passes for 234 yards last year. His 19.5 yards per game was good for 47^th in the conference (without including Rutgers and Maryland). He would be the anti-Tony Jones/Tony Lippett pick; a true boom-or-bust type drafted almost exclusively under the theory that at some point Christian Hackenberg has to throw the ball to someone who isn’t a tight end.

Leonte Carroo, Rutgers– Carroo was third in the B1G-plus-Rutgers-and-Maryland (BPRAM) at 17.1 YPC, and he scored 9 TDs. On 28 catches. Which is a really high rate. And he did that despite catching passes from Gary Nova and Chas Dodd. Carroo is a dangerous threat on the outside, as he gets on top of corners very quickly and shows good hands and body control on deep routes. He also catches the ball very well in traffic (i.e. when his quarterback puts the ball where it ABSOLUTELY should not have been thrown, because Gary Nova). The one catch (get it? catch?) is that he did almost all of his damage against terrible pass defenses:

DeAngelo Yancey, Purdue– Was right behind Carroo in the BPRAM at 17.1 YPC, but like Carroo his total catches were limited (he had 32 on the year). In fact, just read everything we wrote about Carroo, but replace “Gary Nova” with “Danny Etling.”

Jordan Westerkamp, Nebraska – Solid catch rate as a freshman, and figures to feature opposite Kenny Bell. He only caught one touchdown last year, and let’s just say that it didn’t look like the “repeatable” type:

Kevonte Martin-Manley, Iowa– 40 catches, 388 yards, 9.7 YPC. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…

OVERALL – Wide receiver is a lot like running back;a couple of very big names atop a pile of quality players. However, unlike running back, the wide receiver talent seems to be concentrated in a few places (Maryland, Northwestern, Ohio State) and notably absent in others (Iowa, Penn State, and particularly Wisconsin). Of course, wide receiver is one of the positions at which freshmen can make an impact, so it’s hard to say how it will shake out. But you best pray that C.J. Brown finds a rapport with Tacopants, or Maryland is scary as hell.

Tight End

Who was taken:

Who’s left:

Kyle Carter, Penn State – Both he and Adam Breneman had 15+ catches at >12 YPC. As discussed with Geno Lewis, Hack has to throw the ball to SOMEONE now that Allen Robinson is gone. With Breneman going down with a knee injury, Carter seems primed to benefit as a target. One potential issue is system; James Franklin did not use tight ends very much at Vanderbilt. In his three years at Vandy, Franklin’s TEs averaged a total of 17.3 catches per year, and that was after he inherited a team whose leading receiver was TE Brandon Bardon (whose catches dropped in his first year with Franklin by more than half), so it isn’t clear how the transition will go for the group as a whole.

Jake Butt, Michigan – Would have been drafted if healthy. Hauled in 20 catches at 11.8 YPC as true freshman, and really looked good late in the year. Tore his ACL in the spring, but is expected back around the start of conference play, if not sooner (which, holy crap Modern Medicine).

Justin Sinz, Purdue – 41 catches for 341 yards, 4 TDs. Many catches, but Purdue, so NO TOUCH DO NOT WANT.

OVERALL- You've got one guy who is weapon-like AND plays in a system that seems to enjoy weapons (Heuerman), two guys who are weapon-like in systems that don't know which way to point the barrel (Kroft and Maxxxxxxxxx), a bunch of Penn State guys, and an injured Butt. Tight end excitement, I tell you.

Interior Offensive Linemen

Who was taken:

Who’s left:

Robert Kugler, Purdue – Should have been drafted somewhere without question. He’s the single plant growing on the planet of trash from WALL-E. He was Purdue’s team offensive MVP as a sophomore center, which tells you that (a) he’s good, and (b) oh my god Purdue. He’s rated just behind Jack Allen as a 2016 draft prospect. The fact that Purdue went for 2.52 yards per carry on the season (which was 124^th in the country, ahead of only FIU) wasn’t his fault. Watch his film against Louis Nix III. He’s strong enough to stand up to Nix one-on-one, but still mobile to pull and lead on rushes to the edge and get out front on screens. If his little brother Patrick follows his footsteps, Michigan fans should be rather pleased.

Collin Rahreg, Indiana– Damn there are a lot of good centers this year. There aren’t many years in which Rahreg would be the 7^th best center in the conference (after Allen, Vitabile, Blythe, Lindsey, Voltz, and Kugler), but that’s where we are this year.

Travis Jackson, MSU – He gets the benefit of playing between Jack Allen and Jack Conklin, so it’s hard to say precisely how good he is. But the left side of the MSU line became very good over the course of the season, and Jackson looked the part. Not great in any facet of the game, but he’s a solid run blocker, solid pass blocker, and seemed to be pretty decent at finding his guy.

Miles Dieffenbach, Penn State – Extremely talented guard who would have been among the first taken, but he tore his ACL in spring practice. May come back toward the tail end of the season.

Mike Moudy, Nebraska – I know nothing about him, but he comes on Seth’s recommendation, which may or may not be entirely based on the beard:

Kyle Bosch/Kyle Kalis/Graham Glasgow, Michigan – Hey, it could happen. Michigan has plenty of potential talent on the offensive line. SOMEONE on the interior is bound to turn into a player. But if you want to put money (or, as here, the risk of being snarked until the end of snark) on the line for any one of them, that’s a risky proposition.

OVERALL: So. Many. Centers. The offensive guard quality falls off rather steeply, but there are a half-dozen really, really good centers. There are so many that Seth’s entire offensive line is just centers.

Offensive Tackles

Who was taken:

Who was taken:

Josh Campion, Minnesota – Minnesota has a very experienced line, and Campion is among the most experienced with 26 career starts. At 6’5”, 326 lbs, he’s definitely a right tackle. He’s road-grading run blocker who doesn’t have the quickest step in pass protection. Fortunately for Minnesota, they aren’t planning to throw any passes this year, so that works out fine.

Erik Magnuson, Michigan – You know of this man.He’s got the build and skill set to be a prototype left tackle, but he remains young and inexperienced (he spent last season as an undersized guard). Best guess is that he’ll be drafted toward the tail end of next year’s Draftageddon, but for now he’s still in “fingers crossed” territory.

The one on the left

Keith Lumpkin, Rutgers– Mammoth, mammoth dude. He’s 6’8, 315 lbs with a good kick, quick feet, and strength to burn. Technique needs work, but he was only a redshirt sophomore last year so that’s to be expected. Probably wasn’t selected because no one knows how he’ll hold up over a full season against the kind of DE talent the B1G will bring to the table. Also because Rutgers smells funny. But again, and I can’t emphasize this enough: 6’8”.

OVERALL: There is really one elite left tackle in the conference (Scherff), one elite-ish right tackle (Haverstein), a handful of high-quality guys in the second tier (Spriggs, Smith, Decker, Conklin, and MAYBE Marz) and then a drop-off.

Total Offensive Players by Team:

• Ohio State - 7
• Wisconsin - 7
• Michigan State - 6
• Indiana - 5
• Northwestern - 5
• Iowa - 4
• Maryland - 4
• Nebraska - 3
• Penn State - 3
• Michigan - 2
• Minnesota - 2
• Rutgers - 2
• Illinois - 1
• Purdue - 0

Pretty much as you would expect, and pretty much in line with how good the respective offenses were last year. In the abstract it feels like there should be fewer players from Michigan State (they were 9^th of the 14 teams in yards per play) and Northwestern (10^th of 14 in yards per play), and more players from Illinois (who was actually pretty good offensively despite their overall terribleness) and Michigan. But when you look at the players selected and those left on the sidelines, it seems about right.

Sorry, Purdue.