Draftageddon 2014: Remember This?

A LONG TIME AGO IN A GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY THAT DOES NOT HAVE A WORLD CUP…

The goal of Draftageddon is to draft a team of Big Ten players that seems generally more impressive than that of your competitors. Along the way, we'll learn a lot of alarming things, like maybe Maryland is good? Full details are in the first post.

PREVIOUSLY ON DRAFTAGEDDON

1. Everyone not grabbing dual-threat senior QBs grabs defensive linemen
2. Seth takes Venric Mark in front of just about everyone
3. Nothing terribly remarkable happens
4. BISB takes all the guys I want
5. A ridiculous amount of time is spent discussing the merits of one particular interior lineman from Rutgers
6. WILDCARD TIME as Brian takes a quarterback despite already having a quarterback.
7. Peppers drafted in WILDCARD TIME II.

THE CURRENT SITUATION

ROUND 15 - PICK 2: Dontre Wilson, SLOT/RB, Ohio State

O: QB Connor Cook (MSU), RB Ameer Abdullah (NE), WR Devin Funchess (U-M), SLOT Dontre Wilson, TE Maxx Williams (MN), LT Brandon Scherff (IA), LG Kaleb Johnson (RU), RT Tyler Marz (WI)

D: DE Shilique Calhoun (MSU), DE/DT Andre Monroe (MD), NT Darius Kilgo (MD), OLB Chi Chi Ariguzo (NW), OLB Matt Robinson (MD), CB Desmond King (IA), S John Lowdermilk (IA)

ST: KR/PR Ameer Adbullah (NE)

ACE: So here we are in the 15th round, and since Brian took Braxton Miller with the top overall pick, only two Ohio State offensive players have gone off the board: Devin Smith and Taylor Decker. This makes some sense, as the Buckeyes lost some significant playmakers from last season, namely Carlos Hyde and Philly Brown.

This also makes little sense, as we're talking about an Urban Meyer offense with Braxton Miller at quarterback. Somebody's due for a huge breakout year, and that someone is sophomore Dontre Wilson, whose role is expanding from change-of-pace-back/guy-who-catches-screens/decoy (or "USE NORFLEET LIKE THIS PLZ") to "replace Philly Brown and be like Percy Harvin":

“He’s a starting H,” Meyer said Tuesday. “He took (wide receiver Corey) ‘Philly’ Brown’s spot, so he’s a full-time receiver. We did take him today and put him in some backfield action. We use that term, (Seattle Seahawks wide receiver) Percy Harvin, very loosely, because there’s only probably one of him. But we’d like (it if) that hybrid position is really a key guy if we can do that … by far, Dontre’s the No. 1 spot.

Wilson is still learning the finer points of the receiving aspect, which is fine, because even if he doesn't catch a ball past the line of scrimmage, he's ... what's the term ... insanely f***ing explosive:

With Brown gone, as well as Jordan Hall—who moonlighted at H-back when not starting at RB during Carlos Hyde's suspension—Wilson is in line for a huge expansion in his role, and the Buckeye consensus is he's the closest thing to Harvin they've had since Meyer took over. Given his freshman numbers, that means he'll be piling up the yardage; he rushed for 250 yards and a TD on 31 carries (8.1 ypc) and caught 22 passes—almost all screens—for 210 yards (9.6 ypc) and two TDs. He routinely exploded into the secondary despite almost never going past the line of scrimmage without the ball in his hands.

Wilson's threat to turn innocuous plays into game-breaking ones also opened up the field for the rest of the Buckeye offense:

“I always joked around with my teammates and said, ‘I’m the Decoy of the Year,’ ” Wilson said. “Every time I do a fake or something, we scored.”

Ohio State scored on two different plays in the Orange Bowl that first faked to Wilson, a 33-yard touchdown run by quarterback Braxton Miller and a 57-yard touchdown strike to tight end Jeff Heuerman.

Wilson’s speed is so drastic, so imposing, that it has a way of freezing opponents. One step, Wilson proved, is all it takes to beat a defense to the edge and coast to the end zone. So when he went in motion, Clemson noticed.

Wilson is a former top-100 recruit with track star speed and solid freshman production in a very good offense that perfectly suits him; now he's in line for a major uptick in touches. How is this guy on the board six rounds after Shane Wynn was picked, exactly? Have we all been drunk? I think we've all been drunk.

ROUND 15 - PICK 3: Louis Trinca-Pasat, DT, Iowa

BEARD

O: QB Devin Gardner (UM), RB Jeremy Langford (MSU) WR Kenny Bell (Neb), WR Shane Wynn (IU), OT Donovan Smith (PSU), OT Jack Conklin (MSU), C Austin Blythe (Iowa)

D: DT Louis Trinca-Pasat (Iowa), DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DE Noah Spence (OSU), LB Jake Ryan (UM), LB Mike Hull (PSU), CB Sojourn Shelton (Wisky), CB Jabrill Peppers (UM), S Kurtis Drummond (MSU)

BISB: Speaking of people who are being drafted way too far apart, let's look at Iowa's interior DL. Carl Davis went in the 2nd round, and had 42 tackles (11 solo) and 4 TFLs. Plus, 2.5 of those TFLs were against Michigan, which barely counts. Meanwhile, Iowa's other defensive tackle, Louis Trinca-Pasat, recorded 39 tackles (19 solo) and 9 TFLs. That wasn't a fluke, either; he had more tackles, solo tackles, and TFLs than Davis in 2012 as well. And he's still on the board in the 15th round.

LTP isn't high on the NFL draft boards because he's not a fantastic athlete (he's pretty uncomfortable-looking outside the tackle box) and doesn't have an NFL frame. He's 6'3" and 290 pounds unlike Davis's 6'5", 315. As such, he gets the usual Undersized White Defensive Tackle descriptors; he's a plugger, a lunch pail guy, a grinder, a gritty gritter who grits. I mean, he won the "Team Hustle Award" last year FFS. But he operates really well in close space, uses his hands well, maintains gap integrity, and doesn't get blown off the ball against double-teams. And he's productive. He can play the 3-tech, but his gritty grit style would allow him to line up over the nose and be an effective wrench in the gears of an offense, if not a thunderous backfield-wrecking disruptor.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Seth bets it all on Indiana.]

INTERLUDE

SETH: In response to Ace's query on our sobriety:

Probably because "He's the Starting H" in spring practice at Ohio State really means "there's a 62% chance this guy is going to be the Percy for us all season."

Guy is a vintage Rodriguezian slot receiver, but Urban demands far more than bubble screens, curls, and sweeps from that position, and has been quick to anoint a new Percy when one misses an all-important read or can't nail a jerk route. Philly Brown won the H role last year over several more athletic candidates because he had the savvy for it. I expect Urban would love Wilson to grow into the role, but the guy was a running back until March, and is 185 pounds. Upside here is huge; I waited because my expectation is 2009 Odoms.

Plus, are we going on expectation of 2014 stats, or what the guy would do in our offenses? Because while erasing an Buckeye slot-bug by sticking a cover corner on him is just asking to get Braxton Miller in your face, that [points at Connor Cook] cannot replace Braxton Miller.

ACE: Martavious Odoms in 2009: 22 catches, 272 yards, 1 receiving TD, 3 carries, 5 yards, 1 rushing TD. As a sophomore.

Dontre Wilson in 2013: 22 catches, 210 yards, 2 TDs, 31 carries, 250 yards, 1 TD. As a true freshman.

Seth, I can't even.

BRIAN: Also, Wilson did that despite being on the field only about 20% of the time. Seth is clearly drafting from an alternate universe here but even so it would be nice if his snark had any relationship to reality.

SETH: Wow that's almost half as many yards as Odoms had his freshman year in the Threetsheridammit offense. Don't even.

ROUND 15 - PICK 4: Nate Sudfeld, QB, Indiana

ROUND 16 - PICK 1: Tre Roberson, ditto

O: QBs Nate Sudfeld and Tre Roberson (IN), RB Venric Mark (NW), WR Devin Smith (OSU), WR Christian Jones (NW), T Jason Spriggs (IN), T Taylor Decker (OSU), C Brandon Vitable (NW), G Jack Allen (MSU).
D: DT Michael Bennett (OSU), WDE Randy Gregory (NE), MLB Taiwan Jones (MSU), WLB Steve Longa (RU), SS Corey Cooper (NE), FS Adrian Amos (PSU), CB Blake Countess (M)
ST: Mark

Wait a minute, didn't Tre Roberson transfer?

EDITORIAL ASIDE: Yes, he did. Unfortunately for this draft he did so towards the end of our selection process. It was adjudged that this was actually not the worst thing in the world for Seth since a Sudfeld who was a clear starter goes earlier; he was provided a compensatory random offensive player choice at the end of the draft.

This of course makes large portions of the next section not accurate. That's life.

SETH: Backups you say? I say the Dynamic Duo. The Caped Crusaders. Sherlock and Watson. Walter and Jesse. Stringer and Avon. Lucy and Ethel. Dom Deluise and the little Jewish mouse: A duuuuuo!

Let's go to the 2013 stats among this year's Big Ten quarterbacks (sack-adjusted, 20 or more attempts). In yards per pass attempt, Tre Roberson was, ah, first, at 7.8 (139 attempts), and Nate Sudfeld, ah, second at 7.1 (338 attempts). Nobody else is close: Gardner and Caleb Rowe were at 6.9, and Miller, Hackenberg, Stave, and C.J. Brown were at 6.8. Gardner and Maryland's pair can be excused for all the sacks; Miller, well, there's a reason Urban had him throw to Philly Brown all the time. These are all efficient passers (unlike, oh, Connor Cook)--it's just that Roberson and Sudfeld were off the charts.

Sudfeld took about 62% of the Hoosiers' snaps, passing on 94% of those. Roberson passed 62% of the time; as things settled he became more of a changeup used to force teams to prepare for an option offense in addition to the aerial assault at ludicrous speed. His 5.6 YPA as a rusher is more Mitch Leidner than Gardner (6.3), C.J. Brown (6.8) or Miller (ridiculous 8.6). Roberson (7.0) and Sudfeld (6.9) still led everyone but Braxton Miller (7.4) in total yards per play, and it cost me only picks 58 and 59, not first overall.

Miller's rushing YPA is so high because defenses had to play OSU straight, while I think Roberson had the benefit/curse of everyone playing Indiana very bend-don't-break. But you know what? They broke. Roberson scored on a nation-leading 9% of his snaps; Braxton Miller was 8.5%, Garder 6.3%, and Sudfeld was at 6.1%. Connor Cook, despite starting more drives in his opponent's territory than anyone in the country, was 5.1%, putting him between Gary Nova and Danny Etling. Stop laughing, Brian: Hack was tied with Nova.

LUDICROUS SPEED: GO!!!

It was their offense you say? Well it doesn't cost a draft pick to take their offense, which put up 4.8 yards per play against OSU and MSU, had a short (60 plays is very few for them)/bad day against Wisconsin, and never dropped below 6 YPP otherwise. Except I've got all-stars who can carve out an excellent zone running game on the OL instead of the mostly-okay, mostly-pass-pro dudes Kevin Wilson got by with (the one star of that line is on my team), and fair enough replacements for Latimer and Hughes and...dammit BiSB give me back my Wynn!

AZERBAIJAN!

This was always the plan. I specifically selected offensive linemen from the faster-paced zone offenses of the league, with the exception of MSU's (they run mostly zone but at a pace akin to Iowa's and Michigan's) Jack Allen because he's known for his exceptional smarts and quickness, and has been relieved of center duties. This is why I valued Vitabile so highly, and let you guys take all those Badgers: Vitabile has run a relatively hurry-up zone offense for four years. Plus I have a "backup" quarterback I can actually put on the field as an RB or slot receiver.

Also I realize I could have split up these picks, but think of all the onomatopoeia we'd have missed. Ah, the sacrifices we make for narrative.

Na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na...BATMAN (AND ROBIN)!

ROUND 16 - PICK 2: Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana

O: QB Devin Gardner (UM), RB Jeremy Langford (MSU), RB Tevin Coleman (IU),  WR Kenny Bell (Neb), WR Shane Wynn (IU), OT Donovan Smith (PSU), OT Jack Conklin (MSU), C Austin Blythe (Iowa)

D: DT Louis Trinca-Pasat (Iowa), DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DE Noah Spence (OSU), LB Jake Ryan (UM), LB Mike Hull (PSU), CB Sojourn Shelton (Wisky), CB Jabrill Peppers (UM), S Kurtis Drummond (MSU)

ST: Bell (KR), Peppers (PR)

BISB: Thanks for setting me up on with the premise of the awesomeness of Indiana's offense. 'Cause I've got the two best pieces of it.

Tevin Coleman rushed for 958 yards on 131 carries in only 9 games. His 7.4 yards per carry were the second most of any returning player (After Melvin Gordon's 27 YPC or whatever he had). Jeremy Langford may be my every-down back, but Tevin Coleman is my Swiss Army Knife back. Much like Dontre Wilson, but with a season of actual production under his belt that doesn't need much extrapolation. Coleman is a home-run hitter; he had a run of double-digit yards in every game he played, and a run of at least 40 yards in six of his nine games. He also scored a touchdown in every single game. Plus he caught 19 passes at over 10 yards per catch.

The nice difference between Coleman and, say, Venric Mark, is that Coleman is 6'1" and 205 pounds, unlike Mark's five foot nothin', a hundred and nothin'. Coleman missed the last three games of the year with a sprained ankle, but he at least has the size to take more punishment, and occasionally dish some out. He's not a jitterbug-type back. He's a one-cut-and-go back who has a mastery of the subtle cut, and who regularly embarrasses tacklers who don't take the proper angle.

INTERLUDE

[Ace leaves vicinity of computer for period of greater than 30 minutes, causing much distress.]

ACE: I'll write this up when I'm not in the process of looking at places to move, but I'll take Earnest Thomas III, HSP and/or SS, Illinois.

SETH: Ace is joking, right? Is he joking? I feel like if he was joking he would say something like: "What do you get when you cross and elephant with a rhinoceros?."

AN ELEPHINO!

More Indiana highlights include an elephino blowing a one-high coverage on Latimer's third TD, and an elephino running himself out of the play on another Coleman long TD run, and an elephino blitzing into a play his coach had dead to rights and getting swallowed by a releasing guard for another TD.

I guess when you've got a chance to draft a guy who helped hold Unstoppable Throw God Trevor Siemian to just 414 yards you have to do it. But I'm just a Dumars in a Dumars world so...

ROUND 16 - PICK 3: Earnest Thomas III, HSP/S, Illinois

FEEL THE ILLINOISE

O: QB Connor Cook (MSU), RB Ameer Abdullah (NE), WR Devin Funchess (U-M), SLOT Dontre Wilson, TE Maxx Williams (MN), LT Brandon Scherff (IA), LG Kaleb Johnson (RU), RT Tyler Marz (WI)

D: DE Shilique Calhoun (MSU), DE/DT Andre Monroe (MD), NT Darius Kilgo (MD), OLB Chi Chi Ariguzo (NW), OLB Matt Robinson (MD), CB Desmond King (IA), S John Lowdermilk (IA), HSP Earnest Thomas III (IL)

ST: KR/PR Ameer Adbullah (NE)

ACE: Yes, Seth, I'm serious. When critiquing this pick, as you've done by showing highlights of Thomas mostly playing out of position as a deep safety behind a god-awful defense, it's important to note how I actually plan to use the guy—we'll leave aside, for now, the fact that it's difficult to bring down Tevin Coleman when he runs untouched into the secondary, or that the biggest issue for Illinois against Indiana was that their corners couldn't stay in front of anyone. (Okay, I didn't really leave that aside.) Watch Thomas' 2012 highlights—with very useful all-22 views—and you'll see a player who's passable in coverage and really damn good at flowing to the ball and making an impact when he gets there:

When Illinois isn't misusing Thomas because of the complete dearth of talent and/or experience on defense—heading into 2013, Thomas was the only returning player from the top six players in the 2012 secondary*—they play him at the "STAR" position—a hybrid linebacker/safety spot, which is exactly how I'd like to use him on my defense. John Lowdermilk is fully capable of playing deep safety and my two linebackers are known for their coverage ability; I can afford to use a pick on a hybrid space player better suited to playing in the box than a deep half. I can use Thomas as a box safety against spread-to-run teams, an extra rusher off the edge (see the 3:40 mark above), or an extra defensive back playing crossing-route-crushing intermediate zones. He crushes screens, makes more than his fair share of tackles in space, and does so in a fashion that often produces a live ball—he forced three fumbles in each of the last two seasons.

So, no, Thomas isn't a dude who's going to blanket guys in coverage. His seven PBUs in 2013—which included two against a decent Cinci squad and one against Washington, lest BiSB's cherry-picked stat mislead you—show he's not totally overmatched in that regard, however, and that's enough for me to take a player who's going to make a major impact in the box, which, again, is where he's set to play both for Illinois and my defense.

*Safety Steve Hull also returned, but moved to wide receiver.

ROUND 16 - PICK 4: Jeff Heuerman, TE, OSU

ROUND 17 - PICK 1: Ibraheim Campbell, SS, Northwestern

O: QB Braxton Miller (OSU), QB Christian Hackenberg (PSU), RB Melvin Gordon (WI), WR Stefon Diggs (MD), TE Jeff Heuerman (OSU), OT Rob Havenstein(WI), G Kyle Costigan(WI), G Dallas Lewallen(WI)

D: DE Frank Clark(M), DE Therien Cockran (MN), DT Darius Hamilton(RU), DT Carl Davis(IA), LB Desmond Morgan(M), LB James Ross(M), CB Trae Waynes (MSU), CB Jordan Lucas (PSU), S Ibraheim Campbell

BRIAN: I know why we let a billion rounds go by after Ace took Maxxxx, who needs no last name. There is this tier of essentially equal TEs in the league that's more than sufficient to kit out our squads without a whole lot of dropoff--there are no Tony Gonzalezs here.

But I think perhaps that was a mistake, because now I am taking a tight end. Oh and also good reasons. OSU's Jeff Heuerman was the Bucks' third-leading receiver last year with 26 catches and a rather spectacular 17.9 YPC average. At 6'5" with a 36-inch vertical leap he is an extremely forgiving target, and his bench press leads the OSU roster. Given that three quarters of the starting OSU DL is already off the board, that says something.

Heuerman has the speed and size to threaten the deep seam, helped OSU to its ridiculous rushing numbers last year, and is poised to blow up as OSU replaces big chunks of its passing offense. The venerable Ross Fulton says Heuerman is OSU's "most consistent receiving option" going into 2014 and "should be a critical component" the passing offense. Heuerman's been singled out by the strength coach as his most dedicated guy and highly praised by the head guy for his blocking prowess. It seems like he's a definite NFL draft pick--CBS has him third amongst tight ends.

And I will grab this year's Brooks Bollinger Memorial Eighth Year senior: Ibraheim Campbell. The Northwestern safety has been an honorable mention All Big Ten pick the last two years by both coaches and media; the year before that he was a freshman All-American. Entering his fourth year as a starter, Campbell is a good bet to be on All Big Ten teams and get drafted.

While Northwestern's pass defense wasn't great--they tied with Michigan and Minnesota for fifth in the league at 6.9 YPA--their already-shaky corners were decimated by injury. By the time Ace FFFF'd them they were down to freshmen out there. Meanwhile Northwestern was middling at getting to the QB. Despite this, Northwestern was pretty good at preventing long stuff. They were third in the league at preventing passes of 20+ yards and tied for second at 30+despite being terrible at preventing passes of 10+; they also were much better at preventing long runs than 10 yard runs. Like Jordan Kovacs, Campbell has spent much of his career putting out almost all of the vast wildfire the rest of his defense hands him.

INTERLUDE

BRYAN: I'd like to thank Brian and Ace for allowing me to make the same critiques of your safety selections. This is much more convenient than mocking two mop-up men at separate times.

The stat everyone throws out with Campbell is that he has 262 career tackles, which sounds like a lot (though again, he accumulated them over nine seasons). But what they don't tell you is that his production has dipped every year; from 100 in '11 to 88 in '12 to 74 last year. Moreover, Northwestern's total passing yards allowed per game has increased over the same span (232 YPG in '11, 250 YPG in '12, and 256 YPG last year). Campbell is a fine player, but he isn't what you'd call "dynamic." He's only 5'11, so some of that isn't his fault, but he only had 1 INT and 4 PBUs in the entire Big Ten season last year. He's a guy who generally keeps stuff in front of him, holds big gains down, and stops the bleeding. Brian correctly refers to him as a fireman, which is all well and good, and it isn't surprising given Brian's memories of his Kovacs binky.

If Campbell is a fireman, Thomas is a black-and-white bucket brigade fireman from a Laurel and Hardy skit. He only had three PBUs in Big Ten play, and didn't have a pick all season. He was only "productive" in the sense that he was able to pull down several of the innumerable dudes running freely in his general area of the field. But then again, if you get the chance to lock down a piece of a pass defense that gave up 8.2 YPA and 25 TDs against 3 INTs, I suppose you've gotta pull the trigger.

Oh, and Brian, you're right about Heuerman in that clip. He should have a heck of a year, especially if he keeps wearing that Jake Stoneburner jersey. Though if we're going to start taking Urban Meyer's Gold Star Wall of Splendiforous Achievements at face value, we may as well go home because there's no point in drafting non-Buckeyes.

Also, I should say that with Thomas off the board, we now have representation from 13 of the 14 Big Ten teams. Who will be the first among us to Boiler Up? I mean, DeAngelo Yancey isn't terrible. Rob Henry played both quarterback and safety last year, so you'd have some flexibility. Akeem Hunt... uh... exists.

BRIAN: Duuuude like 90% of a safety's job is to be safe. They're NAMED "safeties." I mean. Safeeeee.

THE CURRENTLY CURRENT SITUATION