With the least amount of fanfare to ever accompany a 5-star athlete to Michigan, Ty Isaac committed here a few weeks ago. Where does Ty fit in among the RBs on the roster, in a zone running offense? What's the chances he has to redshirt his year? Are we, you know, rooting for this? What effect does this have on the RBs Michigan's pursuing for the 2015 class? Can he block a safety blitz? Can anyone?
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BiSB: Well, any time you have someone transfer, that's going to hurt overall depth, but they still have...
...wait, really? TO Michigan? And this is permitted?
Cool.
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| We are way too good of a photoshopping community to get this few transfers. |
If what John Infante and others have said is true, it seems unlikely Isaac will be eligible this season. Maybe the NCAA will try to show how SUPER DUPER FLEXIBLE AND PRO-STUDENT WE ARE YOU GUYS given the ongoing legal troubles and grant a waiver where they normally wouldn't, though this is the NCAA so who wants odds. But that works out just fine; Michigan retroactively took a five star back for the '14 class. And because neither DeVeon Smith nor Derrick Green redshirted (and neither destroyed the planet as a freshman), having now taken a running back last year is currently a good plan. Take THAT, space-time continuum.
I'm going to disagree with what Brian said shortly after Isaac committed; I think his game film looks really good. We're used to seeing recruiting tape against high schoolers, so you expect a certain amount of physical dominance and sending-home-of-competition-to-acquire-shinebox. And normally they are actual highlights, not every touch. But for a true freshman against real college competition, he showed flashes of the stuff you like to see from a freshman for whom you have high hopes: he broke tackles, found extra yardage, fell forward, and showed good speed for his size. He also caught the ball well out of the backfield, which is something Michigan hasn't had in a back over 5'8" in quite some time. If any Michigan back looked like that last year, we would have all been much pleased. Okay, okay, that's probably not the best standard to use. But you get my point.
I think he's a great fit for an inside/outsize zone running scheme, because he's definitely a one-cut-and-go back but still a downhill guy. It's hard to know whether he's better suited than Green or Smith, largely because those two spent last year in a "run toward that pile of angry dudes" rushing scheme. Bottom line is that regardless of what happens with Damien Harris or Mikey Weber or Jacques Patrick, the running back depth chart looks pretty good for '15 and '16. We can worry about '17 later.
[jump. And run. And other superhuman abilities!]
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Mathlete: Nice of you guys to keep me on the invitation seeing as I haven't showed up for a while, it's starting to hit summer and I figured it was time to emerge from hibernation.
While it's possible Isaac is substantially better than Michigan's current backs, I am firmly in the "a redshirt is a great thing" camp for Isaac. Not a having a back in this class and heavy competition for 2015 top targets means there could be a big gap if Isaac, Green and Smith (you can throw Drake Johnson in there too) all end up in the same class. Besides, I heard that Ty Isaac really looks up to Mike Hart and Mike Hart thinks the transfer waiver 100 mile radius rule should be strictly enforced, and ergo Ty Isaac should absolutely be ineligible this season.
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| Some cherries are nice. |
As for the bigger picture, getting Isaac was definitely better than not getting him, but I don't think this moves the needle that much. A great running back can make a high school team go from mediocre to title contender, but higher up, the marginal value of a great running back diminishes. Look at the last few NFL drafts, where did all the running backs go? I don't see that trend changing. Unless you're Adrian Peterson or USC Reggie Bush, the game has evolved into a passing game so much that the highest levels of football are seeing fewer and fewer game changing running backs each year. Not counting fantasy football, if you were doing a Draftageddon for the NFL I don't think O know who would be the 2nd back taken and I don't know that they would be taken in the top 100 picks, are you getting that much more production from the 2nd best RB versus the 15th?
Obviously the Big Ten isn't the NFL (because obviously the SEC is the NFL), but the trend is still largely true. A running back is like the cherry on top for a great football team. The cherry by itself doesn't do much, especially if the ice cream in the sundae is 14 different flavors (running schemes) and mostly melted.
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Ace:
Unless you're Adrian Peterson or USC Reggie Bush, the game has evolved into a passing game so much that the highest levels of football are seeing fewer and fewer game changing running backs each year.
This is actually why I'm quite excited about the pickup. I agree that even at the college level there's only so much impact a back can have in the running game—as we've learned, so much depends on the offensive line—but one way a back can raise the overall ability of an offense is by providing a bona fide receiving threat out of the backfield. There's a reason Brian nabbed Illinois' Josh Ferguson (50 receptions last year at 8.7 yards per target) in Draftagedden and the reaction was "oh, great pick" even though he plays for Illinois. Other than Justice Hayes, who will be a senior when Isaac is first allowed to see the field in all likelihood, none of Michigan's backs add that dimension to the offense, and Isaac has more potential than Hayes as a runner, too.
I'm with BiSB in that I thought his USC film was pretty impressive, although it's hard to get a great read based on a limited number of carries that often came well after the game was in hand. I believe, based on his high school tape, that he's a solid fit for a zone running scheme—as a wingback in a wishbone offense at Joliet Academy, he usually ran off-tackle and had to pick the correct hole quickly before bursting upfield, which he did with regularity. While it's a transition to go from wingback to tailback, that vision should carry over, and he's already spent a year working on that transition at USC.
It's tough to venture a guess as to where he'll land on the depth chart, mostly because the offensive line made it impossible to evaluate Michigan's freshman backs last season. He's certainly got the talent to compete for a starting role whenever the NCAA decides he's allowed to play in games.
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| Frankly, my dear, I've had enough of North. |
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Brian: I'm with Mathlete: even if Isaac was eligible this year there probably isn't going to be an enormous amount of difference between his production and that of Smith and Green, because all of them are in the same vein: they're north-south guys who can break some tackles if you get them a head of steam. A guy like Hart who could go WOOP in the backfield and turn a TFL into four yards would be very welcome at the moment. Isaac, for all his hype, is not that.
What Isaac does provide is another bullet in the chamber. Recruits are lottery tickets and Michigan now has three excellent ones from the 2013 recruiting class. If someone gets injured, they're probably fine; if someone turns out to be not particularly good, they're probably fine.
Recruiting impact is this: where Michigan was looking at taking two backs in 2015 now they're definitely going to be fine with one. I don't think Isaac's presence is going to knock Michigan out of the box for anyone they're pursuing at the moment, as tailback is a place with a lot of platooning and it's not like a Damien Harris or Michael Weber is going to end up at a place without highly touted guys vying for carries next to him.
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Ace: Weber has, in fact, directly stated that Isaac's commitment won't have an impact on him, for what it's worth.
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Seth: You guys covered the basics. Michigan needs a 2015 bullet and I don't think anybody but Isaac will be upset if he has to redshirt to learn the offense, and even then he can't be too mad when he realizes he's not burning eligibility as Michigan tries to find a new offensive line.
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| Trent Richardson had 49 targets. |
A couple things to add: 1) A back who's good at zone running isn't the same as a power back or an automatic juke machine. It takes time to get a feel for where things open up, and the good ones learn that time to make one cut after about half a year. The other guys are going to have to learn on the job; it's a luxury to get a season off to adjust.
2) When Green committed I looked at the history of 5-star RBs and the success rate was off the charts. These aren't shotgun bullets; they're rifle shots except when they have off-field issues or are Kevin Grady. A third of the backs had 3,000 career yards for their teams over their careers, and half went to the NFL. Misjudged talent at running back is rare.
3) Ace covered the receiving threat part. To add to that: Nussmeier likes to throw to his backs. The NCAA average has been 16-18% of targets to running backs. Nussmeier teams were 21%, 24%, and 22% in the years I have targeting data for. Michigan was 11%, 11%, 12% with Toussaint/Smith et al. A running back who can catch will be a big deal.