Draftageddon: It's Penn State O'Clock

THE GOAL OF DRAFTAGEDDON

The goal of Draftageddon is YOU DO NOT TALK ABOUT DRAFTAGEDDON.

I'm hearing this is incorrect. I see. The goal of Draftageddon is to draft a team of Big Ten players that seems generally more impressive than that of your competitors. Along the way, we'll learn a lot of alarming things, like maybe Maryland is good? Full details are in the first post.

PREVIOUSLY ON DRAFTAGEDDON

1. Everyone not grabbing dual-threat senior QBs grabs defensive linemen
2. Seth takes Venric Mark in front of just about everyone
3. Nothing terribly remarkable happens
4. BISB takes all the guys I want
5. A ridiculous amount of time is spent discussing the merits of one particular interior lineman from Rutgers

THE CURRENT SITUATION

ROUND 11 - PICK 2: Matt Robinson, OLB, Maryland

O: RB Ameer Abdullah (NE), WR Devin Funchess (U-M), TE Maxx Williams (MN), LT Brandon Scherff (IA), LG Kaleb Johnson (RU)

D: DE Shilique Calhoun (MSU), DE/DT Andre Monroe (MD), NT Darius Kilgo (MD), OLB Chi Chi Ariguzo (NW), OLB Matt Robinson (MD), CB Desmond King (IA)

ST: KR/PR Ameer Adbullah (NE)

ACE: Yes, I'm becoming concerned with my own fascination with Maryland's front seven, but it really is a good front seven. Robinson, in particular, is an interesting case. He came to Maryland as a safety, started eight games there over three injury-plagued seasons—picking up a medical redshirt in the process—then moved to strongside linebacker in 2013, where he flourished: in 11 games, he recorded 73 tackles (43 solo), 10 TFLs, a sack, four pass breakups, a forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries. According to CBSSports, he's the #10 OLB prospect in the 2015 class after just one season at the position, five spots behind Jake Ryan (BiSB's 4th-round pick) and 11 spots ahead of Taiwan Jones (Seth's 5th-rounder). 

This is Round 11.

Robinson's solid production against the run proved a pleasant surprise; given his experience in the secondary, his excellent coverage skills much less so. Sometimes you don't know what you have until it's not there, and that's what happened to Maryland and their ability to cover the middle of the field when Robinson missed two games with a rotator cuff injury last season:

If you want more proof of Robinson's importance, just take a look at what happened in the Virginia game. Maryland nearly lost to a team that went 2-10, largely because Robinson was not there to cover tight end Jake McGee, who posted a season-best performance of eight catches for 114 yards. The other game Robinson missed? Wake Forest, where [slot] Mike Campanaro [caught] 11 passes for 122 yards without support from Robinson over the middle.

That comes from a Testudo Times (SBNation's Maryland blog) article making the case for Robinson as the team's defensive MVP; this section is also rather compelling:

But what if you can have a player who can do both [run support and coverage]? Someone who could, I don't know, provide nearly perfect coverage of slant routes and other plays over the middle while also containing the field from quarterback scrambles and draw plays, forcing turnovers and punts whenever third downs went his way?

Linebacker Marcus Whitfield and safety Sean Davis may have posted the gaudiest stats, but there was another player who came up with big plays when the Terps needed them and dominated every aspect of the defensive game -- Matt Robinson.

I like. 

In addition to his physical ability, Robinson also acts as a coach on the field, according to the Washington Post:

Robinson was always studious ... and his class notebooks contained equal parts lecture points and X’s and O’s scribbled into the margins. He is quiet on the field, shying away from trash talk or even primal screams after big plays, but he studies enough film to call out certain offensive plays before they happen. Cornerback Jeremiah Johnson, one of Robinson’s roommates, said it’s “kind of like having a coach or a graduate assistant on the field with you.”

He plans to be a coach when his playing career is over.

I've made a concerted effort to put together an experienced and versatile front seven, and Robinson fits that mold. He played safety at 6'3", 215-ish, bulked up to 240 pounds last year while maintaining his coverage skills, and went through this spring practice—the first for which he's been healthy since his freshman year—at 244 pounds; he'll fit in just fine on the strong side in a 4-3. With Marcus Whitfield and his nine sacks gone from Maryland's WLB spot, Robinson could factor in more as a pass-rusher this fall, and his size allows me to slide him inside in nickel situations, giving my defense excellent coverage over the middle with him and Ariguzo. While the injuries are admittedly a concern, Robinson is a steal here if he stays healthy.

ROUND 11 - PICK 3: Mike Hull, LB, Penn State

O: QB Devin Gardner (UM), WR Kenny Bell (Neb), WR Shane Wynn (IU), OT Donovan Smith (PSU), C Austin Blythe (Iowa)
D: DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DE Noah Spence (OSU), LB Jake Ryan (UM), LB Mike Hull (PSU) CB Sojourn Shelton (Wisky), S Kurtis Drummond (MSU),

BISB: How about a linebacker who recorded more tackles and more solo tackles than Matt Robinson, and in fewer games? Surely such a creature could not be found here in the depths of the 11th round. That is, unless the Big Ten houses something called 'Linebacker University.' Mike Hull registered 78 tackles (44 solo) in basically 9 games after missing much of the early part of the year with a leg injury. He averaged over 9 tackles per game in Big Ten play.

I share Seth's hatred of tautological analysis, but he's just a linebacker. When a guy is 6'0" and still the 12th highest linebacker on the aforementioned CBSSports OLB ratings, which always ALWAYS overemphasize measurables, you know the kid can play. He's probably a WILL in my scheme, but I may more Ryan to the MIKE and play him as a smaller SAM in an Over front.

Robinson may be only five spots behind my 4th-rounder Jake Ryan. But he's also 17 spots ahead of Chi Chi Ariguzo... who you took in the 4th round. With the pick after Jake Ryan. So let me ask you, Congressman: were you wrong then, or are you wrong now?

Also, I wish to point out the fallacy of saying "Robinson is valuable because a tight end torched Maryland in his absence." The wisdom of XKCD teaches us that sometimes your rock doesn't scare away tigers. Sometimes the tigers would have torched your secondary regardless. Wait, I think I bailed on the metaphor too early. Or too late. Alas.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Ace is outed as an expansion-lover. Also, WILDCARD, BITCHES]

INTERLUDE

BISB: Let it also be known that 4 of Ace's last 5 picks were from Maryland or Rutgers. Reassembling Wisconsin's offensive line is one thing (though I question whether it's an ideal strategy to take one successful team up against a set of quasi-All Star teams, but whatever). Reassembling the 7-6 Terps is... bold.

ACE: BiSB, in his own words:

So as much as I want to complement [so close, man] Ace on taking my 8th/9th round sleeper in the 6th round, or for getting a steal in Monroe, I will instead point out that (a) Maxx Williams will be the most talented guy to ever record 23 receptions on the season thanks to Mitch "Not The Arm" Leidner, and (b) your 7th round DE [Monroe] might be better than your 2nd round DE, which LOL your 2nd round DE.

And more...

I can't believe I'm saying this, but DAMMIT ACE I WANTED THAT RUTGERS LINEMAN.

So, BiSB, were you wrong then, or are you wrong now?

BISB: Then. I was wrong then.

BRIAN: Dude, the Wisconsin rushing game is a quasi-All Star team, just without the quasi. 6.6 YPC!

SETH: Now it's my turn to damn BiSB. Hull isn't a sleeper but he is the cover boy for the PSU version of HTTV I'm doing with them and was my next pick. Penn State's D is designed around his lateral mobility: they play a lot of 1 and 3-high and let Hull range underneath. I'd hoped by pushing the OL a bit I could sit and watch you guys make a run on them and that was working fine until you kids meddled in my plans.

ACE: The strategy of drafting two centers in a row in the hopes of starting a run backfired?

Well, I never.

BRIAN: Two centers from the #6 and #9 rushing offenses in the league, even.

SETH: Well damn you all and damn me for looking at my phone right before going to bed. And damn BiSB again for taking Wynn just because. You want picks?

ROUND 11 - PICK 4: Corey Cooper, S, Nebraska
ROUND 12 - PICK 1: Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State

so much red

O: RB Venric Mark (NW), WR Devin Smith (OSU), WR Christian Jones (NW), T Jason Spriggs (Ind), T Taylor Decker (OSU), C Brandon Vitable (NW), G Jack Allen (MSU).
D: DT Michael Bennett (OSU), DE Randy Gregory (Neb), LB Taiwan Jones (MSU), CB Blake Countess (Mich), S Corey Cooper (Neb)
ST: Mark

SETH: Well let's see, since my last pick:

• BiSB: Austin Blythe, OL
• Ace: Kaleb Johnson, OL
• Brian: Kyle Costigan, OL
• Brian again: Dallas Lewallen, OL
• Ace: Maryland linebacker I had below other linebackers still on the board.
• BiSB: Takes Hull.

I made it 5/6 picks before somebody drafted a guy I wanted. Here's two more guys as needed for my team as those dudes aren't.

Corey Cooper Junior isn't Drummond, but lists of preseason All-Big Ten players has to include two safeties and Cooper's usually the other one unless the guy making the list only looks at number of tackles and has Funchess the top TE. You may remember him as the safety constantly coming in unblocked to blow up Borges's power plays, unless you're thinking of the other safety (Green) who's moved on.

Kovacsian things: He led that team in tackles, many of those accrued immediately following a biff by his MLB (their defense improved somewhat after Santos was moved to WLB). In five years with four different position coaches he's been steady and steadily improving. He's got bloodlines and family friends who may have taught him a thing or two: Corey Cooper the elder played with Jim Everett and Rod Woodson.
Definitely non-Kovacsian things: That CBS thing has him the third strong safety in next year's NFL draft. This is also a guy who played cornerback and nickel-slot at various times in his Husker career, and Nebraska trusted him to play the one-high as often as Green. This year they're putting some kind of linebacker at the safety spot next to him. Guy can cover.

Why him and not future Ace Terpbender pick Sean Davis? Jamar Adams versus Ernest Shazor. Also because Maryland moved A.J. Hendy to Davis's position this spring despite a shortage of cornerbacks, which suggests they too see a guy who blows up bad teams and special teams but "struggled against top-tier passing attacks."

If you still want to question my going for just a solid safety at this juncture, here's a reminder of what happens when you have a liquid one:

And here's what happens when you have a gaseous one. And here's what happens when you put Devin Smith against a fully armed and operational two-time all-conference Spartan corner battle station (and Miller doesn't fling it over Endor).

That last was Devin Smith his freshman year. Now as a senior he's...mostly the same guy. He runs straight down the field, but does this so quickly that you have to guard it all the time.

His 2013 stats, however, don't stand out from Maryland's long man Levern Jacobs. That takes some splainin': 1) The nature of OSU's offense last year was to stay safe with the Hyde/Miller run game and Philly Brown running option routes out of the slot; if all Smith did was force defenses to play six guys against that triumvirate, he did his job. 2) He also may have been held back by injury half of last year. 3) He has probably watched 1,000 more career yards sail over his head from Braxton Miller et al. overthrows.
Urban suggesting he "doesn't know which receiver will start" this spring was a coachspeak message about focus, not a sign that Devin's about to get passed by other Bucks who are just as bored by the idea of routes. No, he doesn't fit "The Profile(TM)." No, he's "not good at playing school." He runs really fast downfield, and sometimes makes ridiculous one-handed stabs. The upside here is best receiver in the conference. The floor is I finally have something to stretch the defense vertically.

And with that I declare the Maryland receiver fair official opened.

ROUND 12 - PICK 2: Jeremy Langford, RB, MSU

O: QB Devin Gardner (UM), RB Jeremy Langford (MSU) WR Kenny Bell (Neb), WR Shane Wynn (IU), OT Donovan Smith (PSU), C Austin Blythe (Iowa)
D: DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DE Noah Spence (OSU), LB Jake Ryan (UM), LB Mike Hull (PSU) CB Sojourn Shelton (Wisky), S Kurtis Drummond (MSU),

BISB: Haha, Seth, you... eh, I've got nothing. Those picks are probably pretty good. But remember when you took Venric Mark with the 12th overall pick?

Langford ain't fancy, but he's certainly productive. But his 1422 rushing yards were the third-most of any returning rusher (behind Abdullah and Gordon, who were gone like 7 rounds ago). He scored 18 touchdowns on the ground, which was the most in the Big Ten and 6 more than anyone who returns this year. And he rushed for over 100 yards in his final seven Big Ten games as well as the Big Ten Championship game. He's a patient runner who sets up blocks well, and he runs through tackles well and falls forward. His 4.9 YPC average isn't spectacular, but neither was his offense. Value in the 12th round.

INTERLUDE

BISB: Is anyone else looking forward to Brian's first postgame press conference?

~"So, Coach Cook, how's the back seven shaping up?"

~"Well, we've got Trae Waynes, who's pretty good. And then we're just playing a lot of weird guys."

Also, it's worth noting that I grabbed Langford now because Seth pointed out that everyone else grabbed running backs several rounds ago, and I figured that while it didn't violate the letter of the draft laws (there isn't even a requirement to grab ANY running backs; they're all "skill players"), my holding out violated the spirit.

/Looks at quarterback situation
ಠ ಠ

SETH: I don't see anything wrong with the quarterbacks. Ace, do you see anything wrong with the quarterbacks?

ACE: Nothing wrong with the quarterbacks at all, Seth. Nothing. At. All.

ROUND 12 - PICK 3: John Lowdermilk, S, Iowa

wait, this happened?

O: RB Ameer Abdullah (NE), WR Devin Funchess (U-M), TE Maxx Williams (MN), LT Brandon Scherff (IA), LG Kaleb Johnson (RU)

D: DE Shilique Calhoun (MSU), DE/DT Andre Monroe (MD), NT Darius Kilgo (MD), OLB Chi Chi Ariguzo (NW), OLB Matt Robinson (MD), CB Desmond King (IA), S John Lowdermilk (IA)

ST: KR/PR Ameer Adbullah (NE)

ACE: Iowa had one of the best all-around defenses in the country last year. While they're due for some regression with the loss of BJ Lowery and their excellent trio of linebackers, they'll have to regress quite a bit to not be one of the better defenses in the Big Ten:

They surged back to a top-15 overall level, and aside from not quite making enough stops in the red zone, they were weakness-free. They were good on all downs (great on first and second), good in all quarters (great in the first and second), great at making offenses inefficient (12th in Success Rate+), great at creating good field position for the offense (which tends to go hand-in-hand with efficiency), and great at preventing big plays (eighth in IsoPPP+).

Iowa finished 10th in overall defensive S&P+, 7th in rushing, and 13th in passing—the passing mark is especially impressive considering the Hawkeyes didn't generate much in the way of a pass rush (54th in adjusted sack rate). The secondary did an excellent job of preventing big plays, and that wasn't because they allowed opponents to dink and dunk their way down the field—opponents completed just 54.9% of their passes against the Hawkeyes (23rd nationally) and posted just 5.7 YPA (5th). In Iowa's Cover 2-heavy scheme, a lot of that success had to do with the steady play of the safeties. 

Their best safety last year was clearly John Lowdermilk, who—like my top corner, Desmond King—was in his first year as a starter in Iowa's defense, playing in a secondary that returned starters Lowery and Tanner Miller. In 2012—with Lowery, Miller, and that group of linebackers—Iowa finished 89th in passing S&P+. That's a heck of an improvement in one year, and I've got two players who played a huge hand in Iowa's return to the defensive elite.

That's not just because Lowdermilk can stay disciplined in a deep half. He recorded 78 tackles (36 solo) and 4.5 TFLs on a very strong run defense, and his ability to flow to the play stood out when I watched Iowa on film last year:

Safeties Tanner Miller and John Lowdermilk both did very well in run support and weren't tested at all in coverage; they flow downhill quickly and don't miss many tackles. The BTN play-by-play guy noted that Lowdermilk is "a lot faster than you would think," because he closes quickly and is white.

Lowdermilk can play either safety spot, hold down a deep half, and also come up and be a factor in the run game. After taking Northwestern's Ibraheim Campbell in the first Draftageddon and regretting it almost immediately, I've learned my lesson—when it comes to safeties, throw the gaudy individual stats out the window, look at the strength of the pass defense as a whole, and go from there. Campbell may be a few spots above Lowdermilk in NFL Draft rankings, but I feel much more comfortable with the latter playing on the back end of my defense.

INTERLUDE

BRIAN: Wait... did Ace just take a white Iowa safety?

They're all the same! Thatsracist.gif.

BISB: Not only did Ace take an Iowa safety, he did so with a Maryland safety AND a Northwestern safety toward the top of the board.

Guys, I'm worried about Ace.

ROUND 12 - PICK 4: CB Jordan Lucas, Penn State
ROUND 13 - PICK 1: QB Christian Hackenberg, Penn State

I AM… PENN STATE

O: QB Braxton Miller (OSU), QB Christian Hackenberg (PSU), RB Melvin Gordon (WI), WR Stefon Diggs (MD), OT Rob Havenstein(WI), G Kyle Costigan(WI), G Dallas Lewallen(WI)

D: DE Frank Clark(MI), DE Therien Cockran (MN), DT Darius Hamilton(RU), DT Carl Davis(IA), CB Trae Waynes (MSU), CB Jordan Lucas (PSU)

BRIAN: I didn't get either of the rising sophomore breakout corners but I'm just fine with taking the rising junior. You may remember Jordan Lucas jumping in front of Jeremy Gallon during last year's Penn State game on a play that required excellent anticipation. He had a whopping 16 passes defended last year, on par with NFL draftees Bradley Roby and Stanely Jean-Baptiste, and did that on a team that was fourth in the Big Ten in YPA allowed--unlike the Indiana cornerback we're all fleeing from his numbers come as part of a good pass defense, one on which he was the undisputed top corner (Lucas's running mate was yanked from the lineup for CB/S Andre Amos midseason).

Film shows Lucas to bring something else to the table, and it's Brady Hoke's favorite thing in the world:

Physicaltoughhardness. This is a cornerback who wants to punish you, and he was aggressive enough to notch an impressive 4.5 TFLs last year from a spot that rarely acquires them. As a true sophomore with excellent size at six-foot-even he should improve further from his honorable mention All Big Ten status from a year ago.

-----------------------------------------

I've been thinking: yeah, I am in the process of assembling an unstoppable death machine of a running game, but what if I do end up in third and long at some point? Unlikely, I know. So, so unlikely. But in that event I may want more of a pocket passer. Also, Miller does tend to get banged up so I want some insurance.

WILDCARD, BITCHES!

YEEEEEEEEEHAWWWWWWWWWWWWW

I was going to wait and grab someone else but I never dreamed a true freshman big-time recruit coming off a year in which he put up 7.5 YPA and a 20:10 TD-INT ratio would still be on the board at this late juncture.

What say you, NFL scout guy?

"Hackenberg helped the Nittany Lions knock off a couple of Big Ten heavyweights (Michigan and Wisconsin), while displaying the kind of grit and determination scouts covet in franchise quarterbacks. With Hackenberg also showing impressive arm strength, anticipation and awareness at this stage of his career, NFL scouts are already salivating about his potential at the next level."

Oh. How about that.

Don't worry guys, Joel Stave's still available. WILDCARD, BITCHES!

INTERLUDE

SETH: Since I've appointed myself official translator of draft analysis bullshit, allow me to clarify a few of those descriptions for the readership.

• Grit: Able to stand on the sidelines while Al Borges craven-balls away the game. Also, is white.
• Determination: Able to lob a ball in the direction of Allen Robinson to the exact spot that the cornerback covering him would have to, I dunno, phase out of reality in that instant not to intercept it. Also, is white.
• Franchise quarterback: is white.

Knocking NFL draft evals more than the pick. FWIW the PSU guys think he's Chad Henne 2005, IE a quality guy with "really good" still some year in the future, currently capable of hitting Mario Manningham or Tacopants right in the numbers.

…

[28 THREE DAYS LATER]

BISB: I'm really hoping that with three days to think about it, Ace has talked himself into pulling the trigger on Kyle Prater.

THE CURRENT SITUATION