Both of these teams swept Tennessee. One is good. One is not.
Tennessee is such a strange team—capable of beating Virginia by 35 or getting swept by Texas A&M—that a look at a game or two of film seemed like a potentially huge waste of time. Instead, I went through the box scores and available highlights of each of the Volunteers's 12 losses in an effort to find some common threads. Without further ado, here's the breakdown of each game, with a Michigan-centric overview at the end of the post.
All rankings reflect the current KenPom standings, which have Tennessee at #6.
#59 XAVIER 67, TENNESSEE 63 (Nov. 12, Away)
Key Tennessee stats: 16/38 2-pt, 8/19 3-pt, 7/19 FT, 35% OR, 17% TO
Key Xavier stats: 24/46 2-pt, 2/8 3-pt, 13/24 FT, 41% OR, 25% TO
Breakdown: Xavier led wire-to-wire in Tennessee's season opener despite missing two starters. They were helped by terrible shooting inside the arc by the Vols, as well as significant foul trouble for Tennessee's two bigs—Jarnell Stokes fouled out in 20 minutes and Jeronne Maymon had four fouls in 27. Xavier exploited this by generating a ton of shots inside the arc and rebounding far better than Tennessee's opponents normally do. The Volunteer bench, meanwhile, scored just six points in 57 minutes of playing time. Score one for "get the bigs in foul trouble" as a huge key to beating UT.
#96 UTEP 78, TENNESSEE 70 (Nov. 28, Neutral Site)
Key Tennessee stats: 19/42 2-pt, 3/21 3-pt, 23/39 FT, 54% OR, 21% TO
Key UTEP stats: 26/40 2-pt, 3/10 3-pt, 17/26 FT, 23% OR, 19% TO
Breakdown: Once again, shooting struggles got Tennessee into an early hole. Once again, foul trouble didn't help, as Maymon fouled out of this one in 22 minutes — he'd been bad anyway, going 1/6 from the field. I don't know if there's much to analyze from this, especially from Michigan's perspective. The Vols shot poorly enough that rebounding over half their misses didn't help much, and UTEP is one of the tallest teams in the country—they played five players standing at least 6'8" for 10+ minutes in this game.
[Hit THE JUMP for ten more losses and my takeaways from a Michigan perspective.]
#5 WICHITA STATE 70, TENNESSEE 61 (Dec. 14, Away)
Key Tennessee stats: 14/32 2-pt, 6/20 3-pt, 15/24 FT, 25% OR, 13% TO
Key Wichita State stats: 17/37 2-pt, 6/16 3-pt, 18/24 FT, 29% OR, 11% TO
Breakdown: WSU won this game by limited Tennessee's rebounding—and, in fact, winning the board battle—while turning the ball over just seven times and forcing the Vols to be a perimeter-oriented squad on the other end. Once again, fouls contributed: Stokes fouled out after 21 relatively ineffective minutes. With Stokes out for most of it, WSU guard Tekele Cotton scored all 19 of his points in the second half, nine of those coming at the line; getting a big in foul trouble and then attacking the paint is a running theme at this point.
#53 NC STATE 65, TENNESSEE 58 (Dec. 18, Home)
Key Tennessee stats: 17/44 2-pt, 3/24 3-pt, 15/20 FT, 40% OR, 15% TO
Key NC State stats: 21/48 2-pt, 3/6 3-pt, 14/19 FT, 38% OR, 24% TO
Breakdown: This one is pretty simple. NC State kept the rebounding battle relatively even, and Tennessee couldn't hit a shot inside or outside (especially outside) the arc. The Wolfpack stymied UT's post offense with 12 blocks—four by a 7'1" center and five by a 6'9", 325-pound forward—so I'm not sure this is the performance Michigan should look to replicate. Unlike the other games, big man foul trouble didn't play a factor at all.
#120 TEXAS A&M 57, TENNESSEE 56 (Jan. 11, Home)
Key Tennessee stats: 13/27 2-pt, 5/17 3-pt, 15/21 FT, 37% OR, 27% TO
Key Texas A&M stats: 12/35 2-pt, 8/15 3-pt, 9/18 FT, 24% OR, 14% TO
Breakdown: Tennessee lost on a three-pointer with four seconds left by a player who shot 25% from beyond the arc this season, so that part... yeah, unlucky, especially considering A&M hit half of their other three-point attempts. In a Big Ten-paced game (59 poss.), the Vols didn't shoot well, their rebounding advantage was canceled out by turnovers, and they let A&M get off enough threes to make up for horrid shooting inside the arc. This game mostly reads as a fluke, to be honest, though the Vols have an unusual number of games that seem to go that way; low-possession affairs involving iffy shooting teams will do that.
#13 KENTUCKY 74, TENNESSEE 66 (Jan. 18, Away)
Key Tennessee stats: 22/45 2-pt, 2/13 3-pt, 16/23 FT, 54% OR, 19% TO
Key Kentucky stats: 15/34 2-pt, 7/16 3-pt, 23/24 FT, 27% OR, 13% TO
Breakdown: Kentucky, a rebounding juggernaut and terrible FT shooting team, got dominated on the boards but hit 23/24 FTs while winning the turnover battle to come away with a win. Considering UK and U-M are about as different as two teams get, further analysis seems unnecessary.
#1 FLORIDA 67, TENNESSEE 41 (Jan. 25, Away)
Key Tennessee stats: 14/37 2-pt, 1/19 3-pt, 10/14 FT, 36% OR, 22% TO
Key Florida stats: 21/38 2-pt, 5/16 3-pt, 10/13 FT, 23% OR, 10% TO
Breakdown: Florida won this game by completely taking away Tennessee's top scorer, Jordan McRae, who finished with five points on 16 shot equivalents. That alone was enough to win comfortably, in all likelihood, but the Gators also benefited from terrible shooting by the Vols and made up almost the entire offensive rebounding gap (16-7, UT) by creating a 13-6 turnover gap in their favor. Michigan doesn't have a perimeter defender on par with, well, just about any of Florida's, so forcing McRae to go 0/9 inside the arc like the Gators did is a tall order.
#113 VANDERBILT 64, TENNESSEE 60 (Feb. 5, Away)
Key Tennessee stats: 16/38 2-pt, 7/23 3-pt, 7/11 FT, 51% OR, 15% TO
Key Vanderbilt stats: 18/31 2-pt, 6/15 3-pt, 10/17 FT, 25% OR, 11% TO
Breakdown: Vandy got great production out of their power forward spot, with Rod Odom scoring 26 points in 38 minutes as an inside-outside threat—he hit four twos, four threes, and six FTs—while limiting Maymon to 4/11 shooting and two turnovers on the other end (albeit with six ORs). Stokes went 3/11 against a center who's a couple inches taller but 20 pounds lighter than Jordan Morgan. With Tennessee's inside production lacking, even doubling up Vandy's rebound rate couldn't get the Vols the win.
#1 FLORIDA 67, TENNESSEE 58 (Feb. 11, Home)
Key Tennessee stats: 17/34 2-pt, 5/14 3-pt, 9/17 FT, 30% OR, 24% TO
Key Florida stats: 13/37 2-pt, 8/21 3-pt, 17/22 FT, 43% OR, 19% TO
Breakdown: The Gators bested Tennessee at two things they do well—rebounding and getting to the line—and shot just well enough from downtown to cover for a bad day finishing inside the arc. Stokes was dominant and managed to play 35 minutes despite amassing four fouls; Maymon, however, turned the ball over eight(!) times while scoring just two points in 34 minutes. I've watched a couple different highlight reels from this game—Florida's offensive success largely came from drive-and-kick situations, while they hounded Maymon with quick doubles in the post, both things Michigan can replicate. The Wolverines aren't likely to win the rebounding battle, let alone as emphatically; they also aren't likely to turn it over on 19% of their possessions like Florida did in this one.
#78 MISSOURI 75, TENNESSEE 70 (Feb. 15, Away)
Key Tennessee stats: 18/34 2-pt, 4/21 3-pt, 22/29 FT, 43% OR, 18% TO
Key Missouri stats: 23/41 2-pt, 3/5 3-pt, 20/26 FT, 28% OR, 18% TO
Breakdown: Mizzou simply outshot Tennessee in a game called tight both ways; three players on each team ended up with four fouls, including Maymon, who was limited to five points in 26 minutes. Mizzou's three 6'5" starting guards got to the basket regularly, and while they hit just 13/29 two-pointers, they combined to shoot 14/17 from the charity stripe. Their low-usage power forward went 3/3 from the field and 4/6 from the line, and his backup went 4/5 from the field—perhaps some GRIII-esque low-dribble, high-efficiency points created by the guards' penetration.
#120 TEXAS A&M 68, TENNESSEE 65 (OT) (Feb. 22, Away)
Key Tennessee stats: 20/39 2-pt, 3/15 3-pt, 16/24 FT, 25% OR, 20% TO
Key Texas A&M stats: 19/38 2-pt, 7/17 3-pt, 9/13 FT, 7% OR, 11% TO
Breakdown: The same crappy shooter who hit the game-winner in the first A&M game? Yeah, he hit the go-ahead three in overtime to win this one, too. While Tennessee didn't dominate the offensive glass, they completely owned the defensive boards; their shooting failed them once again, however, and the gap in turnovers proved just enough for another A&M upset.
#1 FLORIDA 56, TENNESSEE 49 (Mar. 15, Neutral Site)
Key Tennessee stats: 17/33 2-pt, 2/13 3-pt, 9/11 FT, 28% OR, 27% TO
Key Florida stats: 17/33 2-pt, 4/11 3-pt, 10/17 FT, 15% OR, 22% TO
Breakdown: Again, the Gators got a bunch of turnovers from a Tennessee big—this time it was Stokes, who coughed up the ball four times in a 60-possession game. Maymon, meanwhile, fouled out in 27 minutes—a huge blow given he was the only Volunteer playing effective offense in this game. Tennessee once again shot poorly from the outside, and Florida shot just well enough to pull out a very tight game that was nearly dead even on paper.
OVERVIEW: HOW DO YOU BEAT THESE GUYS?
Based on the above, my Michigan-specific keys to beating Tennessee:
1. Attack the bigs. Get one or both of Stokes or Maymon in foul trouble and the going gets a whole lot easier against the Tennessee defense. Opponents were able to attack the paint and get to the line when a big got into foul trouble, and it hurt the Vols significantly on the other end, too—they don't have an interior presence on either end coming off the bench. Florida's strategy of spreading the floor, driving, and looking to draw contact or kick it out seems like it best fits Michigan's strengths as a means to this end.
EDIT: Stat I just unearthed that really bears this out: Maymon's had 4+ fouls in eight games this season. Tennessee has lost six of them.
2. Let them shoot, hope they miss. A lot of these losses feature horrid shooting lines from beyond the arc. This could encourage Michigan to use more zone than normal or simply pack the paint and bring doubles down onto the bigs; a post-up look from Stokes or Maymon seems more dangerous than a kickout to one of Tennessee's guards, especially if that guard isn't Jordan McRae—and he's just a 35% three-point shooter prone to cold stretches, too.
3. Close the possession gap. Whether by a yeoman's effort on the boards or winning the turnover battle, one way or another teams that beat Tennessee usually found a way to mitigate the possession advantage the Vols normally earn with their offensive rebounding. This is another argument for going zone—LeVert could disrupt up top and come away with easy points off turnovers—although the worry there is getting killed on the glass. The more likely way for Michigan to make this work is by having one of those games when they just don't cough up the ball.