Preview: Illinois

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Nice work, boss. [Fuller]

THE STAKES

This section is very simple now that a share of the conference crown is secured. If Michigan wins, they're the outright Big Ten champs.

If Michigan loses tonight and MSU beats Iowa on Thursday, the Spartans can grab a share of the title with a win at Ohio State coupled with an Indiana upset at Crisler on Sunday. Wisconsin is also not out of it; in fact, with Purdue and @Nebraska left on their schedule, the path to sharing a title is easier for the Badgers than the Spartans. Regardless, any Michigan victory will secure the program's first outright Big Ten title since 1986, and they'll have to lose both remaining games for another scenario to come into play.

THE PREVIOUS MATCHUP

Didn't happen. Illinois is one of Michigan's single-plays this season, so this is the first and only matchup between the two in the regular season.

THE LINEUP CARD

I've done away with the SIBMIHHAT column, which caused nothing but confusion, and replaced it with each player's offensive rating, which is more informative anyway. The formula for calculating an individual's ORtg is too complicated to post here; Basketball-Reference has the rundown if you're curious. At minimum, just like with team offensive efficiency, you want to have an individual ORtg above 100. The best ORtg in the country among players using at least 20% of their team's possession is 131.8 (TJ Bray, Princeton); Nik Stauskas is 24th at 123.9.

Projected starters are in bold:

THE THEM

Three straight Illinois victories, capped by an upset at the Breslin Center (thanks, guys!), have lifted the Illini out of the Big Ten basement after winning just one of their previous 11 games. They've won with defense in this stretch, holding Minnesota, Nebraska, and MSU to a combined 0.84 points per possession; none of the games cracked 60 possessions.

While the Illini defense has been solid throughout the season, they have the worst-shooting offense in the conference on the other end, and a look through their lineup brings forth some awful numbers, like these: point guard Tracy Abrams, a decent passer and solid on-ball defender, takes nearly 24% of the team's shots when he's on the floor—he's shooting 38% from two and 27% from three.

The team's best offensive player is Rayvonte Rice, a bulldog of a guard—6'4", 235 pounds—who takes over a third of his shots at the rim, hitting them at a 62% clip, per hoop-math. He also gets to the line at a high rate, hits 72% of his free throws, and boasts an impressively low 11.2 TORate for a player that relies so much on creating off the dribble. He's not much of a shooter, however, making 29% of his two-point jumpers and 33% of his three-pointers. Rice is statistically the team's best defensive rebounder, which is impressive for him and much less so for the team.

Coach John Groce replaced two seniors, Joseph Bertrand and Jon Ekey, with freshmen Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill in the starting lineup six games ago; in that span, Illinois is 4-2, and the lineup is slated to remain the same tonight. Nunn takes nearly as many threes as twos and connects at a 40% rate from beyond the arc. Hill is holding his own as an undersized four, doing a decent job on the glass while making up for poor shooting from the field by getting to the charity stripe at a 54% rate and hitting 80% of his free throws. Ekey falls into the "just a shooter" category, which isn't too good when hitting just 35% from three, while Bertrand is a worse-rebounding, better-shooting version of Hill, and he gets to the line less often.

The starting center is 6'11" enigma Nnnanna Egwu, who still hasn't put it all together in his junior season. He's a great shot-blocker and solid offensive rebounder, but his 14.6 defensive rebounding percentage is alarmingly low for a center of his size. He boasts a solid mid-range jumper, but his post offense is so poor he's shooting just 44% on two-pointers. For some reason, he's attempted 23 three-pointers, of which he's hit five.

For better or worse, Illinois is stuck with Egwu at the five. Freshman backups Maverick Morgan and Austin Colbert play spot minutes, and while their finishing at the basket is well ahead of Egwu's, both players commit a lot of fouls while failing to provide Egwu's shot-blocking. Also, both are somehow worse on the defensive boards; Colbert's 7.2 DR% is the worst among any qualifying Illinois player—that's 1.1% lower than Spike Albrecht's rate.

THE RESUME

Victories at Minnesota and Michigan State in the last couple weeks have bolstered an otherwise poor Illinois resume. Their other Big Ten wins either came at home (Indiana in OT, Nebraska) or at the expense of Penn State. The Illini's best non-conference win is either a two-point road win over #78 UNLV or a one-point neutral-site triumph against #60 Mizzou.

THE TEMPO-FREE

The Illinois defense ranks third in the conference in efficiency, and they've sparked the recent win streak by forcing a bunch of turnovers, as you can see in this chart from the Big Ten Geeks:

Relying on forcing turnovers, especially in the low-error Big Ten, tends to produce results of high variance; Illinois has been very good defensively in the last four games, but they've also been lit up by the likes of Wisconsin (1.34 ppp in Kohl), MSU (1.18 at Ill.), Iowa (1.14 at Ill.), and Wisconsin again (1.21 at Ill.)—aside from last weekend's game in East Lansing, Illinois has had a difficult time shutting down the conference's best offenses.

Offensively, they're not good: Illinois is dead last in the Big Ten in two-point shooting (40.9%) and tenth in three-point shooting (31.2%) while getting to the line at the league's second-worst rate. Scoring points is the goal of basketball, and it's rather difficult to do without putting the ball in the hoop. Not helping matters is their below-average rebounding. Add it all up and the only Big Ten team with a worse offense is Northwestern.

THE KEYS

Play in control. Turnovers sparked the Illinois turnaround of late. Michigan boasts the league's second-lowest turnover rate. Taking care of the ball as the Wolverines usually do will go a long way towards winning this game; even though Illinois isn't great in transition, they still score more effectively on the break than they do in the halfcourt.

Exploit perimeter matchups. Illinois is going to have to defend either Nik Stauskas or Caris LeVert (probably the latter) with a player three inches shorter. Expect a healthy dose of high screens for whomever gets this matchup, especially given how willing John Beilein has been to let his stars rise and fire over shorter defenders whenever they get an opening. 

Cool the hot hand. Kendrick Nunn is 10/15 on three-pointers in his last three games, all Illinois wins—Michigan can't afford to lose him on the perimeter in what should be a tight, low-possession affair. Nunn's also turned the ball over nine times in those three games, so dialing up the pressure should mitigate his effectiveness. He'll likely be Caris LeVert's responsibility, and while LeVert's quick hands should force some turnovers, his tendency to forget to challenge shots could come back to bite Michigan. 

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1

(Yes, the projection changed by a point since last night, when I drafted this post. I'm doing the KenPom Appeasement Dance as I write this.)

Elsewhere

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. John Groce, this wasn't very smart:

According to LeVert, Illinois assistant coach Dustin Ford called him about a week after Groce took the Illinois job. He told LeVert that Groce would be reaching out shortly to discuss Illinois.

The call never came.

A few days later, on May 11, 2012, LeVert committed to Michigan during an official visit.

LeVert, of course, had been an Ohio commit when Groce was the head coach there before he took the Illinois job. Oops.

Jon Horford confirmed that he plans to return to the team for his fifth year. He graduates this spring.

Pat Forde goes in on John Calipari. Yes, you'll enjoy reading that.