THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT | Michigan (18-7, 10-3 B1G) vs. Michigan State (22-5, 11-3) |
|---|---|
| WHERE | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| WHEN | Noon Eastern, Sunday |
| LINE | Michigan -4 (KenPom) |
| TV | CBS (PBP: Verne Lundquist; Analyst: Bill Raftery) |
Right: "Hey, Tom, how many healthy players do you have at any given moment?" [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]
THE STAKES
Are huge, obviously. Michigan is a half-game behind MSU in the Big Ten standings. A win gives the Wolverines the conference lead with a favorable schedule over their final four regular-season games. A loss means Michigan would require some help to win the conference. A look at the remaining schedules of the two teams gives hope for this.
Michigan: @Purdue, Minnesota, @Illinois, Indiana
MSU: Illinois, Iowa, @Ohio State
Iowa is also firmly in the picture, just one game back in the loss column, though they still have six games remaining as a result of Assembly Hall's disassembly.
THE HYPE VIDEO
HT: Gobgoblue
THE PREVIOUS MATCHUP
First game preview. Recap. Brian's game column. OFAAT. Floor slappin'.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold:
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 20 | Travis Trice | Jr. | 6'0, 170 | 50.2 | 16.9 | Not at all | ||||||||||||
| Starter due to Appling's wrist, excellent outside shooter, poor inside finisher | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 14 | Gary Harris | So. | 6'4, 210 | 72.0 | 26.5 | No | ||||||||||||
| High usage and high efficiency, great defender, should match up w/ Stauskas | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 45 | Denzel Valentine | So. | 6'5, 225 | 71.5 | 19.0 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
| Point forward type, solid rebounder, prone to facepalm-inducing mistakes | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 10 | Matt Costello | So. | 6'9, 240 | 37.1 | 13.1 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Most minutes among four-headed rotation w/ Dawson out, good interior D | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 5 | Adreian Payne | Sr. | 6'10, 245 | 51.7 | 25.9 | Not at all | ||||||||||||
| Very effective near basket or outside, decent rebounder and shot-blocker | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 11 | Keith Appling | Sr. | 6'1, 185 | 70.7 | 23.4 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
| Played 19+ mins in each of last two games, but only took 3 combined shots | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 30 | Kenny Kaminski | Fr. | 6'8, 225 | 25.8 | 15.2 | Not at all | ||||||||||||
| Pure stretch four gunner, great shooting numbers, tiny rebounding rates | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 3 | Alvin Ellis | Fr. | 6'4, 195 | 20.6 | 15.5 | No | ||||||||||||
| Role diminishing quickly with Appling back on the floor | |||||||||||||||||||
Starting power forward Branden Dawson was scheduled to have the pins removed from his broken hand Thursday night or Friday morning; he's also apparently dealing with the flu. Izzo won't rule him out of the game, though even if he plays it'll likely be in a limited role with a heavily taped hand. If he can't go, foulers par excellenceGavin Schilling and Alex Gauna will pick up minutes in the frontcourt.
THE THEM
As your Spartan friend is sure to remind you, Michigan will face Adreian Payne for the first time this season. The MSU big man has come back like gangbusters from his nagging foot injury, averaging 18 points and seven rebounds in the five games since his return. His post-up ability and 44% three-point shooting provide a major matchup issue for a U-M squad that couldn't handle Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky.
Assuming Dawson can't give it a go, four other big men will see time up front for the Spartans. Matt Costello is the presumed starter at the four; he's hitting 63.6% of his shots, all two-pointers, while providing solid offensive rebound and excellent shot-blocking. Kenny Kaminsky gets out there just to shoot threes, but he's darn good at it, knocking them down at a 47.6% clip. Gavin Schilling and Alex Gauna foul people a lot while playing marginally effective basketball otherwise.
In the backcourt, Keith Appling is back from a wrist injury that supposedly threatened his regular season as of a week ago. He's been distributing the ball well in the two games since his return; however, he doesn't look comfortable shooting just yet, attempting just three combined field goals over those two games. Appling should split minutes pretty evenly with Travis Trice, an outside shooting upgrade who's not the same quality passer or defender as Appling.
Appling's limitations and the absence of Dawson have put more pressure on Denzel Valentine to be a distributor and rebounder; he's done well with the latter and has mixed results on the former thanks to some questionable decision-making. While he's the least threatening shooter on the floor, he's solid in transition and provides good size and versatility.
Gary Harris is Gary Harris. This means lots of points, probably in an efficient manner, and excellent defense on Nik Stauskas. Harris had been mired in an outside shooting slump before hitting 6/9 threes against Purdue on Thursday.
THE RESUME
MSU has alternated wins and losses since they last played U-M. Wins came over Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern, and Purdue. Losses came against Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Nebraska. If the pattern holds, Michigan is in line for a win.
THE TEMPO-FREE
MSU is now second in the Big Ten in eFG% behind Michigan after bombarding Purdue; they also rank second in 3P% while taking the fourth-highest percentage of the field goals from beyond the arc. Yes, a Michigan State team could be called perimeter-oriented. It's a weird year.
The Spartan defense is giving up lots of three-point attempts themselves and seeing a solid chunk (35.3%) of those go in. What separates them from Michigan, though, is impressive defense inside the arc, ranking first in the league in both 2P% against and block rate. They are very foul prone, though striking a balance between attacking their bigs and generating two-point looks that don't rely on bailout calls can be difficult.
THE KEYS
Keep track of Payne. Should be self-explanatory. If Michigan lets Payne spot up or slice through the defense like Frank Kaminsky, it'll be a long afternoon. Jordan Morgan has to do a better job of keeping track of his man out on the perimeter; losing Payne beyond the arc is likely to result in three points, as Purdue found out OVER and OVER and OVER again on Thursday.
Keep the rebounding close. Michigan managed to win the rebounding battle in the first matchup, which never happens in this rivalry. Even with Dawson likely sidelined, it's unreasonable to expect a repeat, but keeping this close is still a big key to winning. This is all about getting help on the boards from the perimeter players—Caris LeVert's eight defensive rebounds at Breslin made a huge difference.
Find an offense with LeVert. Gary Harris did an excellent job guarding Nik Stauskas in the first game despite Stauskas's eventual 19 points; that took 5/6 shooting from three on looks that weren't easy, as he was limited to 2/6 on two-pointers with no free-throw attempts. If Michigan can't free up Stauskas off the ball, they have to figure out a way to run an offense through Caris LeVert that isn't just LeVert weaving his way towards the basket. Either that or Derrick Walton needs to come up big once again.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 4
Elsewhere
UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. UMHoops Q&A with KJ of The Only Colors:
A number of role players have gotten some quality playing time with all of Michigan State’s injuries, who is one player that will make a difference either on Sunday or in March?
Kenny Kaminski has been the biggest revelation as the season has gone on. He’s played 15 to 25 minutes per game since Payne and then Dawson went down with injuries. And he keeps knocking it down from deep; he’s still at 48% on three-pointers for the season. He’s also started grabbing a few offensive boards and scoring a bit in the lane. Overall, he’s still a pretty one-dimensional player, but it’s a dimension that can be a major factor in games. With Payne back, Tom Izzo can now put a lineup out there where all five players are threats to shoot the three.